228
FXUS61 KALY 161051
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
651 AM EDT Sat Aug 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will feature a few afternoon showers or a thunderstorm with
temperatures running a few degrees above normal. Sunday will be
warmer and more humid with scattered afternoon showers and storms. A
cold frontal passage Sunday night will then bring much cooler and
drier weather for the first half of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message:

- Heat indices are expected to approach advisory criteria (95F)
  Sunday afternoon across portions of the Mid Hudson Valley and
  southern Litchfield County.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected Sunday afternoon.
  A few storms may be on the stronger side with gusty winds.

Discussion:
As of 2:10 AM EDT...High pressure remains centered to our
northeast over Maine, which is resulting in tranquil weather
across our region. Most areas along and north of I-90 are seeing
calm winds and clear skies, which have allowed for favorable
radiational cooling conditions. Here, we went several degrees
below NBM lows, with some upper 40s to low 50s in portions of
the ADKs. Further south, light low-level S/SE flow is allowing
low stratus to expand northwards into the Berkshires and Mid
Hudson Valley. The low stratus and the warmer airmass here
should keep overnight lows mainly in the 60s. Have included
patchy fog for northern areas that are radiating well, and will
note that some mist is also possible for areas that see the low
stratus tonight/early this morning.

Today, the sfc high drifts southwards and begins to weaken. At the
same time, a warm frontal boundary will lift north across our
region, making it to the I-90 corridor by this afternoon. While
temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s for most areas outside
of the terrain, dew points will be highest for areas south of the
boundary and lower to the north. It will thus feel quite warm this
afternoon, with maximum heat indices expected to peak around 90 in
the Mid Hudson Valley and along the I-84 corridor. The warm front
lifting north will likely result in isolated to scattered showers
developing this afternoon, mainly around I-90 and for areas to the
south. Some thunder will also be possible with sfc based instability
present to the south of the frontal boundary, but with an overall
lack of shear severe weather is not expected. Tonight, shower
activity diminishes after sunset. The warm front continues to lift
north. Clouds will also begin to increase and dew points remain
elevated, so temperatures will it will be a warm and muggy night
with lows mainly in the mid to upper 60s.

Sunday...A surface low will track well to our north through eastern
Canada, with its trailing cold front dropping south into NY/New
England during the afternoon/evening. This will result in the
development of scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Ahead
of these showers/storms, 850 mb temperatures increase to +18 to
+19C, which will allow for highs to climb well into the 80s to low
90s. Dew points also remain elevated (upper 60s to low 70s). So,
portions of the Mid Hudson Valley and western CT will see heat
indices near advisory criteria. Given low confidence in whether
or not advisory criteria will be exceeded, however, will wait
another 12 to 24 hrs before deciding if any headlines will be
needed.

As far as the potential for strong to severe storms Sunday, SPC
has kept us in a general thunder outlook, but an upgrade to a
marginal will be possible with future updates, especially from
the Capital District east and south. There will be plenty of
instability for the southern half of our area (1000-1500 J/KG
SBCAPE per the 00z HREF) overlapping with 25-30 kt of deep layer
shear. DCAPE values will increase to 750-1000 J/kg ahead of the
front as well due to daytime mixing and the presence of some
mid-level dry air. This points to the possibility of a few
instances of strong to damaging wind gusts. However, there will
also be plenty of limiting factors, including weak mid-level
lapse rates/warm temps aloft, the fact that the best shear is
displaced to the north where there is less instability, a lack
of wind shear in the low-levels, and the best mid and upper-
level forcing remaining to the north and east of our region. So,
while a few stronger storms are possible, the severe threat
overall looks to be on the low end. While some brief heavy
downpours will be possible, PWATs aren`t overly impressive at
1.5 - 1.75", and storm motions will be fast enough that we
aren`t concerned about hydro issues. In fact, most areas could
really use the rain with recent dry conditions.

Sfc high pressure building into southern Canada pushes the cold
front through our region Sunday night, allowing for a much cooler
and drier airmass to be advected into the region. Showers and storms
diminish in the evening, with dry weather expected Monday and
Tuesday with the sfc high and northwest flow aloft promoting
subsidence across our region. It will feel quite pleasant with
daytime highs will be in the mid to upper 70s with low humidity and
overnight lows dropping into the 40s to 50s. A few showers or a
thunderstorm may be possible Tuesday night or Wednesday with an
upper shortwave trough tracking through the flow aloft. However,
drier conditions return for the end of the week with high
pressure building back in from the N/NW and continued dry NW
flow aloft. Temperatures Wednesday/Thursday will be similar to
those earlier in the week and continued low humidity, although
temps begin to creep back up by Friday. The NHC expects
TC Erin to track well out to sea towards the middle to end of
next week with no impact to our CWA. Please see nhc.noaa.gov for
more info on Erin. Looking ahead, the CPC is expecting below
normal temperatures and above normal precip across the 8-14 day
timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 12Z/Sun...High pressure will shift slowly eastward of
New England today. Some MVFR/IFR low stratus and patchy MVFR
mist will slowly erode this morning. The stratus will breakup at
at KALB/KPOU/KPSF between 13Z-16Z/Sat. KPSF may have a
persistent high MVFR cigs into the early pm. VFR conditions will
continue this afternoon with sct-bkn cumulus and high clouds.
Some isolated/widely scattered showers/thunderstorms may pop-up
near KPOU/KPSF ahead of a warm front. We included PROB30 groups
and MVFR conditions in the 19Z-223/Sat time frame. VFR
conditions will return early tonight with sct-bkn stratocumulus
and mid or high clouds. The low-level stratus will likely return
in the 03Z-06Z/Sun time frame with cigs in the 1.5-3.0 kft AGL
range due to increasing low-level moisture and return offshore flow
at all the TAF sites. The winds will become southeast to
southwest at 4-8 KT in the late morning through the afternoon.
Expect the winds to become light and variable direction at 4 KT
or less or calm tonight.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Mon-Tue: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Main
DISCUSSION...Main
AVIATION...Wasula