801
FXUS61 KALY 070137
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
837 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

.UPDATE...
As of 8:35 PM EST...Quick update was needed as most of the area
is seeing widespread low to mid-level clouds, which is resulting
in temperatures running several degrees above the previous
forecast for many areas. Temperatures are currently in the mid
20s to low 30s for most areas. Current GOES 16 nighttime
microphysics RGB satellite product shows widespread cloud cover
upstream, so it is unlikely that these clouds will dissipate any
time soon. We therefore bumped up temps through the next several
hours. Will see how things trend over the next several hours,
but temps may even need to be increased a couple degrees more,
especially late tonight. There are more breaks of clearing
across southern Dutchess and Litchfield Counties, and may
therefore cool off quicker than across the rest of the region.
Otherwise, previous forecast remains on track with more details
below...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Aside from some passing light snow showers and flurries for
western areas this evening, mainly dry and chilly weather is
expected for tonight into Sunday morning. A fast moving wave of
low pressure will bring a period of light snow for Sunday night,
mainly for the Adirondacks. Behind this system, cold and
blustery conditions are expected on Monday, which will be
followed for unsettled weather through much of the upcoming
week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message:

 - Fast moving low pressure will bring a period of accumulating
   snow on Sunday evening into Sunday Night. NBM probabilities
   for seeing 1" or snow or greater are 50% or higher for the
   western and central Adirondacks and far western Mohawk
   Valley.

Discussion:

Through this evening, there may be some scattered snow showers
for far western areas, but any accumulation will be just a
coating or less and mainly just limited to the far northwestern
Adirondacks. Otherwise, the moisture-starved cold front will
pass through the region, allowing for temperatures to fall into
the teens and 20s for lows tonight.

Skies will start out partly sunny on Sunday, but increasing
clouds are expected by later in the day, as the next wave of low
pressure approaches from the west. This will be a weak storm
over the Midwest that will be moving towards the area, although
the track of storm (basically right across Upstate New York) will
keep the best moisture and forcing mainly north of the region
over the North Country and Quebec. As a result, QPF will be
rather limited across our area, with the better snow
accumulation north of the region. Some light snow may develop by
the late afternoon or early evening hours for western areas and
will track eastward for the overnight. Most of the activity
should be done across our area by 1 or 2 AM based off the latest
CAMS and NBM guidance. NBM probabilities have decreased over the
past few days, with the only areas over 50% for 1" over the
western Adirondacks. Albany only has a 4% chance of 1", with
even just a coating now down to 25%, as snowfall may be limited
by downsloping, limited QPF and dry low-levels. While some
locally slippery spots are possible over the Adirondacks, most
areas won`t be seeing any impacts from this light snowfall with
this fast moving clipper system. As it departs, colder air will
pour into the region, allowing temps to fall into the single
digits and teens, with breezy conditions developing by Monday
morning.

It will be a cold and blustery day on Monday. Despite a mostly
sunny sky, temps will only reach the teens and 20s for highs
with northwest winds gusting up to 25 mph. Winds chill will be
in the single digits at times, especially for the higher
terrain.  As the high pressure area moves overhead for Monday
night, winds will decrease and temps will fall near zero for
much of the area for overnight lows, making for another early
season frigid night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
With a fast northern stream in place, there will be a few
opportunities for unsettled wintry weather through the long
term period.

On Tuesday, it will be continued chilly with highs still only in
the 20s. As the high pressure departs off to the east, southerly
winds will increase and clouds will also be increasing ahead of
the next storm system, which will be another northern stream
clipper system. As with the past one, this will be fairly
moisture starved and generally tracking north of the area. Aside
from some passing light snow showers (mainly for northern areas)
on Tuesday evening, this will generally pass through without
much impact.

The next system looks to have more of an impact, as a stronger
low pressure system will be moving through the Great Lakes for
Wednesday. This stronger system will have more moisture
associated with it and looks to impact the region from late
Tuesday night through Wednesday and into Wednesday evening.
While most areas should see some snow initially, the southerly
flow ahead of this system will allow for milder air to move in
at low levels and aloft as well. Valley areas will likely see a
changeover to rain, although there is still uncertainty
regarding the exact track and QPF. NBM suggests many areas may
see a light accumulation before a changeover occurs as well,
with at least a 40% chance for a coating across the entire area
and high terrain areas seeing at least a 50% chance for 1" or
more. Despite the possibility of rain, surface temps will still
be chilly and may just be warm enough (mid to upper 30s) in
valley areas for rainfall. Behind this system, more cold air
will return for the late week.

Models suggest another storm system could impact the region by
late Thursday or Friday, although guidance has a lot of
variability with the potential storm track. With colder air in
place, p-type would most likely be snow, but QPF will depend on
exact storm track. The potential for more accumulating snow is
there, but this will come into better focus by early next week.
Overall, temps for the late week will continue to average below
normal levels.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00z Monday...VFR conditions as of 6:20 PM EST at all
terminals, although skies are becoming BKN to OVC with cigs 3500-
4500 ft. For GFL/POU/ALB, these low-end VFR cigs with BKN to OVC
cigs 3500-4500 ft are expected to continue through early tomorrow
morning. A brief period of MVFR cigs can`t be ruled out at ALB for a
few hours around sunrise. At PSF, cigs trend down from VFR to MVFR
within the first few hours of the TAF period, and to MVFR fuel
alternate cigs after 06z. Low confidence on if cigs get down to IFR
levels at PSF later tonight into tomorrow morning, but based on
latest guidance have added a tempo groups to highlight the most
likely timeframe of possible IFR conditions.

All terminals see improvement by mid-morning, with BKN cigs 4000-
5000 ft at ALB/GFL/POU and cigs 2000-3000 ft at PSF. Conditions then
deteriorate tomorrow afternoon and evening as another upper
disturbance tracks by. Mainly MVFR cigs expected, except at POU
where cigs remain VFR. Some snow showers are also possible after
21z, with the best chance at GFL followed by ALB. Here, have added
prob30 groups to highlight that IFR vsbys are expected within snow
showers. Winds will generally be at around 5 kt or less through most
of the TAF period, except at PSF tonight where west winds will be at
4-8kt.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Definite RA...SN.
Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...35
SYNOPSIS...27
SHORT TERM...27
LONG TERM...27
AVIATION...35