501
FXUS61 KALY 192013
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
413 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A stretch of dry and mainly sunny conditions with well above
normal temperatures will persist across eastern New York and
western New England through Tuesday. Then, a cold front
Wednesday night into Thursday will usher in our next chance for
showers followed by much cooler and breezy conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

....A Frost Advisory is in effect from 3AM to 7AM Sunday for the
Hudson Valley including the Greater Capital District, mid-Hudson
Valley, southern Taconics and Litchfield Hills...

...A Freeze Warning is in effect from 3AM to 7AM Sunday for
Washington County and southeastern Warren County...

After a very pleasant and mild day, expect a large diurnal
temperature swing tonight as our ~595dm ridge supports ideal
radiational cooling with PWATs falling towards 0.25". As
temperatures cool towards their respective dew points,
probabilistic guidance suggests 30 - 50% probabilities for
temperatures to reach 35 or less by sunrise Sunday where the
growing season remains in effect (Hudson Valley, southern
Taconics, Litchfield County, CT). Cooler temperatures reaching
into the upper 20s expected in the southern Adirondacks, Upper
Hudson River Valley, CT River Valley, and higher peaks of the
eastern Catskills where dew points will likely be lower. Frost
formation and a freeze is thus once again supported with patchy
fog developing near river valleys and wetlands by the pre-dawn
hours through sunrise. The frost advisory and freeze warning
will be in effect from 3AM to 7AM Sunday and will be the final
issuance this growing season as the growing season ends October
21.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Ridging flatten out tomorrow into Monday as a weak and moisture
starved boundary tracks from southern Canada into the
Northeast and stalls overhead. Afternoon boundary layer mixing
deepens a bit tomorrow into especially Monday. With a warmer
air mass spilling into the Northeast, temperatures will trend
warmer each day rising into the upper 60s to low 70s tomorrow
before reaching the mid 70s Monday. Despite clear nights, the
milder air mass in place will keep overnight temperatures milder
Sunday and Monday night with overnight lows only dropping into
the 40s.

Above normal temperatures persist into Tuesday with temperatures
climbing 10-15 degrees above normal into the mid to even upper
70s as zonal flow aloft amplifies as a ridging from Great Lakes
builds eastward. While probabilistic guidance shows 60 - 90%
confidence for temperatures to exceed 70 degrees both Monday and
Tuesday, we will not challenge record high temperatures for any
of our climate sites which sit in the low 80s. Overnight
temperature remain warm Tuesday night with lows only falling
into the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Main focus for the long term will be on Wednesday night into
Thursday when a potent shortwave trough from the Upper Midwest
and Great Lakes amplifies as it progresses eastward. There
remain discrepancies on the exact time of arrival of this
shortwave which are linked to just how quickly the large ~590dm
ridge of high pressure ahead it breaks down and exits out to
sea. Latest guidance show that the low and mid-level thermal
and moisture gradient associated with the incoming cold front is
quite tight suggesting strong low and mid-level forcing to
support a period of precipitation ahead and along the front.
Probabilistic guidance indicates the highest probabilities for
measurable precipitation occurs Wed night into early Thursday
and we thus have 25 - 60% POPs during this window with the
highest probabilities north and west of the Capital District.
Given the fast flow aloft, the incoming cold front should be
progressive and given the recent dry stretch, this will be
beneficial rain and we do not anticipate flooding concerns.

The sharp temperature gradient and much cooler air funneling
eastward behind the front will likely bring an end to our
streak of well-above normal temperatures by Thursday with
temperatures trending back to normal late October levels for the
end of the week. Probabilistic guidance even shows 40 - 60%
chance for wind gusts to reach or exceed 30mph on Thursday
suggesting that breezy conditions follow as high pressure
quickly builds over the Northeast through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18z Sunday...VFR flying conditions should continue through
this afternoon and most of tonight with mainly clear skies. We could
see some patchy fog develop for a couple hours around sunrise
tonight/early tomorrow morning, although confidence is low. We
remain in a very similar pattern to last night that may yield more
frost rather than fog, so for now will just mention a MVFR vsbys at
GFL/PSF and can adjust with future TAF issuances if forecast
confidence in fog/mist increases. Any fog/mist dissipates by 13z
tomorrow morning with a return to VFR conditions and just a few
passing high clouds around through the remainder of the TAF period.

Winds will be at around 5 kt or less from the south at GFL and from
the west at PSF, but remain light and variable at ALB/POU this
afternoon and evening. Tonight, winds become calm at all terminals
and then pick back up to around 5 kt from the west/southwest by late
tomorrow morning.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. Patchy FG.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
.SPS remains in effect through this evening for
Berkshire and Litchfield Counties for elevated risk of fire
development per coordination with our CT and MA fire weather
partners. RH values recover to near 100% tonight with calm winds.

Tomorrow, RH values again drop to 25 to 35% for areas along and
south of I-90, including Berkshire and Litchfield Counties. RH
values for areas north of I-90 will be around 35 to 45%. While the
dry conditions will make it easier for fires to start, wind gusts
are expected to be 10 kt or less tomorrow in areas where the RH is
low, which should limit the risk of fire spread. RH values recover
to near 100% again tomorrow night.

Monday through Wednesday...Dry and warm conditions continue, and
winds will be more elevated (gusts of 10-15 kt possible). However,
minimum RH values are currently expected to remain at or above 35%
for most areas each day Monday through Wednesday. The next chance
for rain is Wednesday evening or night.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for CTZ001-013.
NY...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for NYZ041-049-050-
     052-053-059-060-064>066.
     Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for NYZ043-083-084.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Speciale
NEAR TERM...Speciale
SHORT TERM...Speciale
LONG TERM...Speciale
AVIATION...Main
FIRE WEATHER...Main