900
FXUS61 KALY 031820
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
220 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level disturbance and cold front will bring scattered
showers and thunderstorms through early this evening, some of
which could be severe especially south of Interstate 90. High
pressure will bring dry conditions for Friday through Sunday,
with increasing heat and humidity by Sunday into early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Key Messages:

- Severe Thunderstorm Watch 484 in effect until 10 PM this
  evening for areas mainly south of I-90.

Discussion:

As of 220 PM EDT, strong/severe thunderstorms developing across
south central NYS, with agitated Cu field extending into the
eastern Catskills. Latest SPC Mesoanalysis indicates best
instability (ML CAPES 1000+ J/kg) across western Mohawk Valley,
as well as areas within and east of the Hudson River Valley.
Meanwhile, mid level jet max is producing 0-6 km shear of 50+ KT
across south central NYS and translating east.

The area of greatest overlap between best instability and
highest shear looks to be mainly south of I-90, where the latest
severe thunderstorm watch has been issued. Within this area,
some severe thunderstorms with some instances of damaging wind
gusts and large hail are possible.

Farther north, some stronger thunderstorms will still be
possible as potent upper level trough continues to shift east
into southern Quebec. However, deep layer shear should be less,
so isolated/scattered coverage of stronger thunderstorms will
be possible, but any severe looks to remain isolated.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Some lingering showers/thunderstorms will remain possible this
evening across portions of the southern Adirondacks as upper
level shortwave remains nearby. Otherwise, some patchy fog could
form in areas which receive afternoon/evening rainfall.

Dry weather is then expected through Saturday night along with
mostly sunny/clear skies. Temperatures will be a bit below
normal Friday into Friday night, with highs in the 70s to lower
80s, and lows Friday night dropping into the 40s to lower/mid
50s. Low PWAT`s, clear skies and light/calm winds should allow
temps to drop off rapidly after sunset, so expect somewhat
chilly temps across the southern Adirondacks Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
By Sunday, hotter and more humid conditions develop, with high
temps reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s. As dewpoints climb
well into the 60s, heat indices could reach the mid 90s across
portions of the Mohawk and upper Hudson River Valleys. Similar
heat indices are possible Monday. Some heat advisories may need
to be issued should confidence in these heat indices increase.

Will have to watch for some potential ridge rolling disturbances
beginning late Sunday and continuing through Monday. Best
chances would be across northern areas, however there remains
low confidence at this time to include anything more than some
slight chance/low chance PoPs.

A frontal system looks to bring better chances for
showers/thunderstorms late Monday into Tuesday. The front may
stall near or just south/east of the region thereafter, bringing
scattered showers/thunderstorms to portions of the area through
late week. It looks to remain warm and humid much of next week,
with highs mainly in the 80s and overnight lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18z Friday...VFR conditions at all terminals as of 12:30 PM
EDT. VFR conditions generally expected through the next couple
hours, but scattered showers and thunderstorms should develop as the
afternoon progresses from northwest to southeast. Have kept just
prob30 groups at GFL/ALB where confidence in thunderstorm occurrence
is lower, but went with tempo groups at POU/PSF where confidence is
higher. Have also tried to better refine the timing of potential
thunderstorm activity. VFR conditions with SCT mid-level clouds
prevail outside of any storms, but IFR or lower vsbys briefly
possible within any storms. Storms dissipate by sunset, with mainly
VFR conditions then expected to prevail through the remainder of the
TAF period. However, if any of the terminals see appreciable
rainfall this evening, then we will have to watch for patchy fog
development overnight. Winds will increase to 5-10 kt with some
gusts to around 15 kt from the west by the start of the 18z TAF
period, then shift to the NW at around 5 kt through tonight, before
increasing back to 5-10 kt tomorrow early to mid-morning still from
the NW.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...Main