304
FXUS61 KALY 171046
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
546 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Lake effect and upslope snow showers continue throughout the
morning, gradually beginning to slow this afternoon before
tapering off this evening. High pressure begins to build in
across the region tonight, largely remaining in place through
Thursday and bringing our first multi-day dry stretch in a
while. The next opportunity for widespread precipitation comes
Friday into Saturday with the passage of a frontal system.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

 - Winter Storm Warning for northern Herkimer and Winter Weather
   Advisories for Hamilton, Bennington, and eastern Windham
   remain in effect through 7 PM this evening.

 - An additional 0.5" to 2" is anticipated within the zones
   under an Advisory while an additional 1.5" to 4" is still
   expected within the Warning.


Discussion:
A 976 mb surface cyclone has tracked into Atlantic Canada this
morning, maintaining the steepened pressure gradient across
eastern New York and western New England. Wind speeds,
therefore, remain elevated across the region despite the lack of
daytime mixing with sustained speeds currently ranging from
about 10 to 20 mph with gusts of 20 to 36 mph. Deep
northwesterly winds embedded within cyclonic flow aloft has also
maintained the connection with Lake Ontario such that broken
lake effect bands continue to drift south and eastward into the
Mohawk Valley, Eastern Catskills, Capital District, Mid-Hudson
Valley, and even as far south and east as southwest New England.
Orographic enhancement has certainly aided in sustaining lake
effect bands within the Berkshires and is also the causing
factor of snow continuing within the Southwest Adirondacks and
Southern Greens. According to the NYS Mesonet and some
preliminary reports, snowfall accumulations across the region
range from a trace all the way up to 6+ inches with the highest
accumulations within the northwest corner of the Herkimer
chimney.

Throughout the day today, as the aforementioned surface cyclone
and its upper-level counterpart depart farther to the northeast,
winds will gradually begin to back to farther to the west,
weakening and eventually cutting off the lake connection and
ending snow showers by late this afternoon/early this evening.
Latest forecast soundings show moderate levels of omega
intersecting the moist DGZ especially at the higher elevations
of the Southwest Adirondacks and Southern Greens where Winter
Storm Warnings and Advisories remain in effect through this
evening. Therefore, moderate snowfall rates will remain possible
here, and even in the Eastern Catskills where orographic lift
will aid in maintaining a moist column, throughout the morning
before the weakening connection and eventual disconnect from
the lake. Visibility could be impacted in these areas,
especially with gusty winds blowing snow about. Through 7 PM
this evening, an additional 0.5" to 4" is anticipated across the
high elevation areas of our CWA with the greatest of these
expected within the Warning and Advisory areas. High
temperatures today will be chilly with values reaching only the
upper 20s to low 40s.

The north-northeast departure of the low through tonight will
yield a developing zonal flow pattern aloft with high pressure
building in at the surface. Dry conditions will be reinforced
across the region as flow backs to the west and subsidence
increases. While an overall slackening trend is expected for the
pressure gradient, winds will remain breezy tonight into Tuesday
as geopotential heights are slow to rise. Like today, however,
they will remain below Advisory criteria with wind gusts maxing
out at 15 to 30 mph overnight and 15 to 25 mph Tuesday. Lows
tonight will be rather chilly with upper tens at the highest
peaks of the Adirondacks to low 30s in the Mid-Hudson Valley.
Highs Tuesday will be a few degrees warmer than today with 30s
and 40s regionwide.

A weak disturbance passes by to our south Tuesday night into
Wednesday, but we will remain dry as surface high pressure
continues to not only dominate but amplify and move overhead through
Wednesday. High temperatures will be similar to those of Tuesday
with lows falling to the upper 10s to upper 20s Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The extended period begins how the short term ended with high
pressure in place and tranquil conditions continuing. Highs
Thursday will warm a couple degrees in comparison to Tuesday
and Wednesday with values ranging from the upper 30s to mid 40s.
Lows Thursday night will also be "warmer" than Wednesday night
with values in the mid/upper 20s to mid 30s.

Dry weather looks to come to an end late Thursday night or early
Friday into Saturday as a low pressure system traversing
southeast Canada rotates a series of fronts through the region.
Timing discrepancies still exist within the guidance,
specifically pertaining to onset and end time of precipitation,
but general consensus pins this as a fairly progressive system
whose swift departure will see reinforced dry conditions
possibly as early as Saturday morning. Should precipitation
begin late Thursday night, snow or a mix of rain and snow will
be more likely before a transition over to rain during the day
Friday. It is too early to say whether any freezing rain would
result from this system, but with the associated warm front
looking to move through during the day as temperatures are
already on the rise, it is unlikely that freezing rain would be
a concern. Highs Friday will be widely in the 40s to low 50s
with pockets of upper 30s across higher elevations with lows in
the upper 20s to upper 30s Friday night. Highs Saturday will be
in the mid/upper 30s to upper 40s/near 50 after the passage of
the cold front. Lows Saturday night will therefore be rather
chilly once again with values in the mid 20s to low 30s. A dry
end to the weekend Sunday will be paired with highs and lows
similar to those of the day previous.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Narrow bands of lake effect and upslope snow continue to impact
parts of the region this morning. This activity is primarily
occurring near KALB and KPSF, as KGFL is too far north and KPOU
is too far south. Some MVFR cigs will be possible at KALB over
the next few hours, although visibility shouldn`t be too low
based on radar imagery and CAMs. Meanwhile, upslope may allow
for some MVFR/IFR light snow at KPSF over the next few hours,
with visibility as low as 2SM. This upslope should start to wind
down there towards the mid morning hours.

Otherwise, flying conditions will continue to be VFR across the
region for much of Monday from about mid morning onward. BKN
cigs around 3500-5000 ft, will eventually become scattered
towards evening, but it should stay VFR and any additional lingering
snow showers will remain west or northwest of the TAF sites.
Within the daytime mixing, winds will be strong once again, with
sustained winds around 15-20 kts. Some gusts will reach around
30 kts, especially at KPSF. These winds will start to diminish
for this evening into tonight with sustained winds around 10
kts for all sites and much lighter gusts. Flying conditions
should stay VFR into tonight with just some passing cu/stratocu
around 4 kft.

Outlook...

Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Friday: High Operational Impact. Definite RA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ032.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ033.
MA...None.
VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for VTZ013-
     014.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...37
SHORT TERM...37
LONG TERM...37
AVIATION...27