532
FXUS61 KALY 041652
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1252 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the region tonight will result in dry and
cool conditions. Temperatures will warm back to normal levels on
Saturday, as high pressure shifts east off the coast.
Increasing heat and humidity is then expected for Sunday and
Monday. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will also increase
on Monday, as a cold front starts to slowly move south across
the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Dry conditions are in store for this Independence Day as
surface high pressure continues to move into the Northeast.
Winds today will increase to 10 to 15 mph for this afternoon
with wind gusts between 15 and 20 mph. Afternoon high
temperatures range in the 70s and low 80s. For those adventuring
outdoors this evening and tonight, temperatures tonight remain
comfortable and winds become calmer for a pleasant night in
store with clear skies. Overnight temperatures range in the 50s
and 60s. A few locations in the Catskills, Adirondacks, and
southern Greens could reach in the 40s for overnight
temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message:

- Hot temperatures and humid conditions return Sunday across
  eastern New York and western New England.

Discussion:
Surface high pressure over the Northeast continues to bring dry
conditions. High temperatures Saturday range in the 70s and
80s. Overnight lows range in the 60s. Summertime heat returns
for Sunday with hot afternoon temperatures in the 80s and 90s in
valley locations. Latest National Blend of Models 4.3
probabilistic data has high temperatures greater than 90 degrees
across the Greater Capital District down to the Mid-Hudson
Valley between 80 and 95 percent. Depending on dew point
temperatures and forecast trends, heat headlines could be needed
for Sunday as feels-like temperatures are currently ranging in
the 95 to 101 degrees range. Little to no relief from the humid
conditions is forecasted for Sunday night into Monday with
feels-like temperatures overnight in the upper 60s and low 70s
with forecasted low temperatures ranging in the 60s and 70s.
Remember to stay hydrated, have multiple ways to stay cool,
never leave pets or people in locked vehicles, and take frequent
breaks if spending long periods outdoors during peak heating
hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Message:

- Hot temperatures and humid conditions continue Monday.

Discussion:
Summertime temperatures continue Monday where the potential for
dangerous heat is supported by latest ensemble forecast model
guidance and National Blend of Model 4.3 data. Probabilities for
high temperatures on Monday greater than 90 degrees is between
80 and 90 percent for valley locations. Feels-like temperatures
ranging in the 95 to 101 degrees range are more widespread and
include more of western New England for Monday. Depending on
forecast trends the next few days and feels-like temperatures,
heat headlines could be needed for Monday. Nevertheless, it`s
important to stay hydrated and have multiple ways of staying
cool.

Relief from the dangerous heat is in store for Tuesday as high
temperatures range in the 70s and 80s. It`s still going to feel
humid out as the humid airmass is still overhead, but we have
increasing clouds during the afternoon hours.

Daily afternoon and evening thunderstorm and rain shower chances (30-
50%) return Monday as upper level shortwaves have support by latest
ensemble forecasts to move through bringing these unsettled weather
conditions to eastern New York and western New England. While being
this far out in the forecast period, there is a lot of
uncertainty on the exact track of these upper level shortwaves
and who exactly could see a rain shower or thunderstorm. But
ensemble forecast model guidance is in good agreement that high
pressure moves east and an unsettled weather pattern returns
for the beginning of next week into the middle of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18z Saturday...VFR conditions continue through at least
the first half of tonight with just a few mid-level clouds
around. With high pressure moving overhead tonight, some patchy
fog is expected at GFL/PSF and has been added with tempo groups.
IFR or lower vsbys expected with any fog. Fog dissipates
shortly after sunrise with a return to VFR conditions with FEW
to SCT high clouds around through 18z Saturday. Winds will be at
5-10 kt from the NW through this evening with some gusts of
15-20 kt, before diminishing to 4-8 kt from the west this
evening. Winds become calm by midnight lasting through mid-
morning tomorrow before increasing back to 4-8 kt from the S/SE.

Outlook...

Sat Night to Sun Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Mon to Tue: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...Webb
SHORT TERM...Webb
LONG TERM...Webb
AVIATION...Main