746
FXUS61 KALY 141417
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1017 AM EDT Wed May 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low will slowly approach from the south and west
today into Thursday bringing some showers and a few
thunderstorms. Temperatures will be near normal today with
abundant cloud cover. Expect temperatures and humidity levels to
increase Thursday into Friday, as a warm front brings a renewed
threat of showers and thunderstorms on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
.UPDATE as of 1017 am EDT...Area of showers continues to build
slowly northward from near the I-84 corridor. A dampening out of
echoes persist northward and we kept a slight chance into the
Capital Region by the late pm, but based on the latest guidance
it will continue to be cloudy, but outside of light sprinkles it
may stay rain free most of the afternoon with the ridging
poking in downstream providing a block of the moisture and a
constant infusion of low-level dry air. The temps look on track
with the clouds with 60s to lower 70s for highs. This update
adjusted the PoP/WX trends and hourly T/TD. We did add a slight
chance of thunderstorms in the mid-late pm right neat the I-84
corridor.

.PREV DISCUSSION[0356]...As an upper level low drifts northward
across the Ohio Valley and central Great Lakes regions today,
diffluent flow aloft and onshore SE flow will result in showers
developing from south to north. Timing looks to be mainly later
this morning into the afternoon. With upper level ridging
positioned to our north, most of the shower activity will occur
south of Albany where PoPs are highest (likely/categorical).
Will mention chance PoPs from around I-90 north, as showers are
expected to weaken as they encounter the ridging. Will not
mention any thunder due to very limited instability. With
thicker cloud cover and showers around, high temperatures will
be cooler than the past few days, with 60s to around 70F (cooler
50s in E. Catskills).

The upper low is forecast to become a more progressive open
wave through tonight as it tracks north/east into the mid
Atlantic region and lower Great Lakes. So while the trough will
be weakening, there should be enough forcing along with
anomalous moisture still in place (PWAT anomalies of +1 to +2
STDEV) to produce mainly scattered showers. The shower activity
should tend to decrease overnight. Rainfall through tonight
looks to range from around 0.10" to 0.30 with as much as 0.75"
in the E. Catskills due to upslope flow. This amount of rainfall
will not result in any significant hydrologic responses. Low
temperatures will be mild again with mainly mid to upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message:

- Strong thunderstorms possible on Friday.

Discussion:

Weakening upper level trough axis tracks northeast across our
area on Thu. With some breaks of sunshine expected during the
afternoon and slightly higher dewpoints in the upper 50s/lower
60s, some modest instability is forecast to develop with around
500-1000 J/Kg of SBCAPE from the HREF. NBM probabilities for
CAPE > 1000 J/Kg are < 20% across much of the area. With 0-6 km
shear only 15 kt or less, organized/severe storms are not
anticipated. Some storms may produce brief downpours though with
PWAT anomalies of +1 to +2 STDEV. Overall max coverage of
showers should be scattered, with isolated T- storms. With some
breaks of sun, high temperatures expected to reach the lower/mid
70s in most valley locations. Once diurnal heating is lost, any
showers should dissipate quickly after dark Thu night with dry
conditions the rest of the night. Lows will be mild again mainly
in the 55-60F range.

Fairly low confidence forecast shaping up for Fri, as most
guidance showing a cluster of convection moving into central NY
north of an eastward advancing warm front. If this activity
holds together, it would move through eastern NY/western New
England during the late morning to mid afternoon hours.
Instability may be somewhat limited based on the timing
especially for areas west of the Hudson Valley. Farther east
there may be enough time to sufficiently destabilize the
environment as temperatures rise to near 80F for moderate CAPE
of 1000-1500 J/Kg. This is conditional though. 0-6 km shear
forecast to increase to around 25-35 kt later in the afternoon
so storms may become organized with a sufficient buoyancy/shear
balance for some possible stronger storms. At this time the
Storm Prediction Center has a general thunderstorm outlook, but
will monitor trends in subsequent forecasts.

Showers and storms should wane Fri evening, as they shift east
of our region. We may get a break overnight, although upstream
activity associated with the frontal system approaching may
start to get close by Sat morning. Lows will be mild again
around 55-60F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Message:

- Thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and early evening (15-30%)
  chances.

Discussion:

One more day of warm temperatures Saturday with highs in the
70s and 80s. Thunderstorms have chances (15 to 30 percent) of
developing during the afternoon and early evening hours
Saturday. Taking a deeper dive into the environment, latest
forecast model guidances continue to support for enough energy
to fuel storm development. With clear skies, this allows daytime
heating to occur. Latest National Blend of Models (NBM)
probabilities for thunder are between 30 and 40 percent. With
this information, confidence continues to increase to keep
mention for thunderstorm chances for the afternoon hours
Saturday. There is still uncertainty this far ahead on exact
timing, strength, and location of thunderstorms. A cold front
associated with a surface low pressure system is forecasted to
move through Saturday afternoon and early evening across eastern
New York and western New England. This helps bring cooler
temperatures for Saturday night into Sunday morning ranging in
the 40s and 50s.

The surface low pressure system heads east beginning Sunday night
into Monday with low chances (less than 30%) for lingering rain
showers north of the I-90 corridor through Monday afternoon.
Otherwise, a short period of dry conditions returns through
Tuesday night. Chances (20-40%) for rain shower activity with
another surface low pressure system returns for the middle of
next week. High temperatures Sunday through Tuesday range in the
60s and 70s, with higher terrain locations in the 50s. Low
temperatures range in the 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A mix of VFR and MVFR conditions across airfields throughout
the TAF period as low level clouds continue to move south to
north through this afternoon. Periods of IFR conditions could
occur due to light rain showers with low visibility and lower
cloud ceilings this afternoon for KPOU and KPSF, which is
included in TEMPO/PROB30 groups based on confidence at this
forecast period. Mist and fog could develop after the 15/00z
timeframe for KPOU and after 06z for KALB and KPSF which is
included in the prevailing group. Otherwise, chances for light
rain showers are included in PROB30 groups as probabilities are
less than 30 percent and confidence is still low on timing of
these showers. Winds continue to be light and variable with the
exception of KALB where southeast winds between 5 and 10 knots
continue through this morning. For this afternoon, southeast to
southerly winds increase again to between 5 and 10 knots.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JPV/Wasula
NEAR TERM...JPV/Wasula
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...Webb
AVIATION...Webb