157
FXUS61 KALY 171803
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
103 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Lake effect and upslope snow showers will gradually taper off
this evening into tonight. High pressure builds east the region
on Tuesday, and remains in place through Thursday. This will
provide a stretch of dry and tranquil weather. The next chance
of widespread precipitation arrives on Friday associated with a
frontal system. Mainly rain is expected, with some snow possibly
mixing in across some mountain areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message:

- Lake effect/upslope snow showers gradually end tonight.

Discussion:

Cyclonic NW flow regime continues this evening into the
overnight hours. Lake effect/upslope snow showers have been
light this afternoon with any additional accumulations limited
to around 1" or less in parts of the W. Adirondacks, Mohawk
Valley and N. Catskills. Since the bulk of the accumulating snow
has ended with only light snowfall rates expected from now
through this evening, will cancel the Winter Storm Warning and
Winter Weather Advisory with this forecast issuance. Will
mention isolated to scattered snow showers with the greatest
coverage over the W. Adirondacks, W. Mohawk Valley into the N.
Catskills. NW winds will continue to gust 25-40 mph at times
through this evening, with decent pressure gradient still in
place. It will remain chilly, with lows tonight ranging from
around 20-30F and a persistent NW breeze making it feel even
colder.

Tue looks dry as surface high pressure nudges east into our
area, with increasing subsidence. There will likely still be
mostly cloudy skies over many higher terrain areas through much
of the day, with partly sunny skies expected in the N-S valleys.
It will still be breezy, but not as windy as Mon with peak
gusts mainly in the 20-30 mph range. Temperatures will remain
below normal with highs in the upper 20s to mid 30s in the
mountains and upper 30s to lower 40s in the valleys. High
pressure moves across N. NY Tue night bringing mostly clear and
cold conditions. A disturbance tracking east across the mid
Atlantic region may bring some clouds and a very low chance of a
few snow showers to far southern areas, but the majority of
guidance keeps precip to our south with this system.

A stronger area of high pressure builds in Wed into Wed night,
providing tranquil but cool conditions. Temperatures will remain
below normal, although winds will be much weaker than recent
days.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure gradually drifts east towards the New England
coast on Thu, providing continued dry conditions with slightly
milder temperatures (though still below normal). The next chance
of widespread precip arrives late Thu night into Fri,
associated with a progressive northern stream trough. The parent
cyclone and upper low are expected to track well north into
Canada, so this will be more of a milder system, with our area
getting into a pseudo warm sector on Fri. High temperatures may
reach or slightly exceed normal for the first time in a while
(> 50F in the Hudson Valley south of ALB). While chances for
measurable precip are high, overall amounts do not look heavy
with just 30-40% probs for > 0.50" rainfall. Most of the precip
should be rain, but could start as a period of snow in parts of
the Adirondacks and S. Greens especially if precip arrives
slightly earlier (Thu night). A few additional showers may occur
with the system`s cold front passage Fri night.

Cooler and mainly drier weather is expected for the upcoming
weekend into next Mon, although a fairly active (but moisture
starved) northern stream trough looks to be in place during this
time. Multiple short wave passages favors slight to low chance
PoPs mainly over higher terrain areas and breezy conditions.
Temperatures look to be near to slightly below normal through
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 18z Tuesday...VFR conditions at ALB/GFL/POU as of 12:10 PM
EST, with MVFR cigs at PSF. Expecting mainly BKN cigs between 3500-
4500 ft at ALB/GFL/POU through the remainder of the afternoon and
evening, and BKN to OVC cigs 2500-3500 ft at PSF through this
evening. Will see more breaks of clearing overnight at ALB/GFL/POU
with continued VFR conditions, but low confidence in how long MVFR
cigs may last at PSF given upslope flow here. Trend, however, should
be for improvement at PSF as the night goes on. Tomorrow morning
through the end of the TAF period, expecting VFR conditions at all
terminals. W/NW winds of around 15 with gusts of 25-35 kt expected
through the afternoon. Gusts diminish at GFL/POU this evening after
sunset with winds also diminishing to 5-10 kt, but winds remain
gusty at ALB/PSF with sustained 10-15 kt NW winds through the night
and through tomorrow morning. GFL/POU see gusts of around 15 kt
increase again tomorrow around 15z, lasting through the end of the
TAF period. Given gusty winds and strong wind gusts and 35-40 kt low-
level jet between 2000-3000 ft, low-level turbulence will be
possible this afternoon and early evening.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely RA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...07
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...35