625
FXUS61 KALY 211040
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
640 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
WPC has expanded the slight risk for excessive rainfall today into
the Mid Hudson Valley and southwestern New England given the
potential for locally heavy rain. Still low confidence on the
potential for severe weather today from around the Capital
District north and east. Otherwise, only minor changes to the
previous forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected today, with
some scattered showers and storms lingering into tomorrow. Some
storms may be strong to severe and produce locally heavy rainfall
today, especially south and west of the Capital District.

2) Tranquil weather with temperatures trending slightly above normal
expected Thursday through next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...As of 3:10 AM EDT...Current GOES 16 WV imagery
shows a strong upper trough with multiple embedded shortwaves
digging into the Great Lakes. At the sfc, a 990 mb sfc low is
currently tracking towards James Bay. This is resulting in
mainly cloudy skies across our region. Temperatures are mainly
in the 50s to 60s, and are not expected to drop much from
current levels through the remainder of the night.

This morning, the sfc low will lift a mid-level warm front through
the region, although the sfc warm front remains hung up to our south
until later this afternoon when southern areas finally get into a
narrow warm sector. We will see scattered showers and perhaps some
elevated thunderstorms with the mid-level warm advection/isentropic
lift this morning, followed by additional chances for showers and
storms this afternoon into early tonight with and ahead of a weak
cold front and associated wind shift boundary.

While some strong to severe storms are possible today (see next
paragraph), the bigger threat if fact appears to be locally heavy
rain. PWAT values increase to around 2" by this afternoon, with warm
cloud depths of around 12 kft allowing for very efficient warm rain
processes. Storm motions do look fast, but multiple rounds of storms
are possible today. Additionally, flow aloft parallel to the
approaching boundary will allow for backbuilding and training of
storms, especially this afternoon. The heavy rain threat looks
greatest for the Mid Hudson Valley, southeastern Catskills, and
possibly the western Mohawk Valley/southern ADKs. 00z HREF does show
a small area with a 30% chance for >3" of rain in 3 hrs this
afternoon across the Mid Hudson Valley, which is usually a decent
signal for potential hydro issues. There was some consideration
given to a flood watch for our southern row of counties, but we
decided to hold off in coordination with neighboring offices
given most areas are still in a rainfall deficit and FFG values
are fairly high. WPC did add the Mid Hudson Valley, southeastern
Catskills, and southwestern New England into the slight risk
ERO, which makes sense given the environment. Main concern would
be for any urban areas, but some ponding of water and isolated
flash flooding will still be possible anywhere that sees
training and backbuilding of storms.

There is also a severe weather threat today. For the western
Mohawk Valley, southeastern Catskills, and Mid Hudson Valley the
warm front is expected to lift north of these areas this
afternoon/early evening, allowing for up to around 1000 J/kg of
SBCAPE. Strong low-level and deep layers shear with elongated,
curved hodographs suggests the potential here for a few right-
moving supercells. Main concern would be damaging winds, but an
isolated tornado can`t be ruled out with low LCLs and impressive
veering wind profile. Can`t totally rule out some large hail
with any supercells either. However, instability looks much more
limited for areas further north and east due to the slow
advancement of the warm front and widespread cloud cover/showers
around through much of the morning. Additionally, there will be
a capping inversion in place and the best forcing (sfc cold
front and upper-level support) doesn`t arrive until after peak
diurnal heating. Therefore, severe weather potential looks
lower today outside of the western Mohawk Valley, southeastern
Catskills, and Mid Hudson Valley. SPC has maintained their
slight risk for severe today across all but the upper Hudson
Valley, southern VT, and the Berkshires, although the
northeastern extent of the slight risk seems overly aggressive
given the lack of instability and numerous other limiting
factors.

Showers and storms likely linger into tonight, but should diminish
in coverage especially after midnight. On Wednesday, a second,
stronger cold front will track through the region. For most of our
area, the frontal passage will be too early for any severe weather,
but there is a low chance for western New England with the front
slowing down as it tracks further east. Threat for severe is very
conditional as unimpressive mid-level lapse rates and abundant
mid- level dry air will be very tough to overcome, but if
convection can get going then shear is impressive, with
hodographs suggesting splitting cells and even dominant left
movers would be possible. SPC has trimmed back the western
extent of the marginal risk from the previous forecast as the
timing of the frontal passage looks slightly earlier.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Behind the cold front, much cooler and less humid
air will filter into the region Wednesday into Wednesday night.
SFC high pressure building overhead should promote quiet
weather conditions despite broad upper troughing aloft. Thursday
will be quite comfortable with highs in the 70s and lows in the
40s to 50s. Temperatures begin to trend upwards Friday into the
weekend as flow becomes more zonal with rising heights aloft,
although our weather should remain tranquil through at least
Saturday. Guidance is beginning to pick up on another upper
shortwave tracking nearby Sunday or Monday, but it is unclear if
this feature will come close enough to bring a return of
showers or if it will remain south of our region.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 12z Wednesday...As of 6:40 AM EDT, flying conditions remain
VFR at all terminals. We should have a couple more hours of
prevailing VFR conditions with increasing mid and high clouds.
However, an area of showers and embedded thunderstorms currently
over northern NJ is expected to track into the region this
morning between 12-15z from S/SW to N/NE. MVFR vsbys/cigs
expected with this area of showers, ending early to mid
afternoon. Some marginal improvement possible once showers end,
but there will be chances for additional showers and storms late
this afternoon into early tonight. Have included prob30 groups
with a fairly wide time range that can hopefully be refined with
the next set of TAFs. IFR vsbys and gusts winds possible with
any thunderstorms this evening. Showers and storms end within a
couple hours of sunset, but areas that see appreciable rain
today may have some lingering low stratus with IFR to MVFR cigs
overnight tonight.

S/SE winds increase to around 10 kt for the start of the 12z TAF
period, increasing to 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20-30 kt expected
from mid-morning through this evening. Gusts largely diminish once
storms end this evening with winds diminishing to 5-10 kt from the
S/SW through 12z Wednesday.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...35