854
FXUS61 KALY 222353
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
653 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Clouds will increase ahead of an upper level disturbance
tonight with some scattered snow showers mainly north and west of
the Capital Region. The snow showers will continue on Sunday
especially over the southwest Adirondacks but mainly dry conditions
and near seasonable temperatures for the rest of the region to close
the weekend. Above normal temperatures open the week with a slight
or low chance of rain or snow showers northwest of Albany.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...As of 750 PM EST...The previous forecast remains in
good shape with this update as only minor adjustments were
necessary to maintain consistency with latest conditions. Clouds
are increasing across the region from west to east in advance of
an approaching shortwave, currently seen on water vapor imagery
digging through the Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley. While
eastern New York and western New England remain dry at this
time, some high-elevation snow showers remain possible in the
Southwest Adirondacks, Southern Greens, and Lake George-
Saratoga region later tonight through tomorrow morning.
Additional details follow in the previous discussion below.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
As of 346 PM EST...High pressure continues to move east of the
VA/NC Coast this afternoon. Flat mid and upper level ridging is
moving downstream of NY and New England, as a weak warm front
moves through. Some mid and high clouds will quickly move
towards the region from the south and west ahead of the next
short-wave located over the Great Lakes Region late this
afternoon.

Weak warm advection with the short-wave and warm front will
cause some light snow showers to develop over and near the
western Adirondacks, southern Greens and perhaps the Lake George
Region tonight. The cold front to the system will approach from
the west for the overnight period with additional snow showers
tapping lake moisture. The low-level moisture profiles on the
models soundings on the 3-km HRRR and NAMnest look dry for
hardly any pcpn south of I-90. The favored flow off Lake
Ontario and the westerly upslope flow off the southern Greens
may allow for a half inch to inch of snow in a few spots with
perhaps isolated 2" amounts over the high peaks. Temps will not
be as cold as last night with lows in the teens to lower 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message:

- Max temps moderate to above normal readings to open the week.

Discussion:

Tomorrow...The winds shift to the west to northwest with the passage
of the cold front through the day, but the boundary stalls near
or over the region. The push of cold advection is not very
strong. Some residual lake effect and westerly upslope snow
showers may persist into the afternoon with additional light
snow accums. The effects of downsloping and a trend to partly
sunny conditions south and east of the Capital District and I-90
should allow for max temps close to the NBM in the lower to mid
30s in the major valleys with a few upper 30s in the mid Hudson
Valley, and 20s to around 30F over the hills and mtns.

Weak high pressure /~1020 hPa/ builds in over the forecast area
Sunday night with the lake effect snow showers and flurries
ending. The skies may go partly cloudy to mostly clear with some
decent radiational cooling. We favored the colder MAV/GFS MOS
guidance for some colder readings north and west of the Capital
District with lows in the single digits with lower to upper
teens from the Capital District south and east.

The weak mid and upper level ridging flattens over the forecast
area on Monday, as the boundary lifts north of the region as a
warm front. The next short-wave trough amplifies and digs
equatorward from central Ontario. Most of the day should be dry
with the mid level flow becoming zonal and then southwest
aloft. Clouds begin to increase within the low to mid level warm
advection pattern. South to southeast winds increase to 10 to
15 mph. The best chance for a rain or snow shower will be over
the southern Dacks. Max temps rise about 5 degrees above normal
with 40-45F readings in the valleys and mid and upper 30s over
the higher terrain (a few colder pockets at the high peaks). The
best chance of a rain or snow showers within the warm sector
will be from the Mohawk Valley, Capital Region and Berkshires
north and west Monday night with the next upper level
disturbance and short-wave. Min temps will be in the upper 20s
to lower/mid 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Message:

- Above normal temperatures will continue for much of next week
  with a series of clipper systems bringing periods of rain and
  snow showers at times. QPF remains light with the systems.

Discussion:

The first in a series of short-wave troughs brings some scattered
rain and snow showers to the region on Tue.  There are some slight
timing  differences with the ensembles, medium range deterministic
guidance and NBM. Most favor a warmer solution with light rain
showers for most of the region with increasing clouds during the day
with a rain/snow mix over the higher terrain.  The clipper low and
short-wave move northeast of the region Tue night with any scattered
snow showers and flurries ending over the southern Greens and
western Dacks. Snow amounts will generally be a coating to less than
two inches in these areas. Max temps rise above normal Tue in the
lower to mid 40s in the valleys with some readings in the upper 40s
in the mid Hudson Valley and 30s to around 40F over the mtns. Lows
fall back mid 20s to lower 30s.

Flat mid and upper level ridging builds in briefly for the mid week.
A sfc anticyclone settles over the region ahead of the next short-
wave trough upstream. Some sunshine and above normal temps by 5 or
so degrees are expected Wed with upper 30s to mid 40s below 1000 ft
in elevation and 30s above it.  Clouds increase Wed night from the
west/southwest ahead of the next clipper low/occluded front a 20-40%
chance of snow showers based on the NBM.  The higher probabilities
are north of I-90. Lows due to wet bulb cooling fall back into the
mid 20s to lower 30s. Some warm advection occurs ahead of the
clipper and a frontal passage for a chance of rain or rain/snow
shower mix with QPF amounts mainly a tenth to quarter of an inch.
Highs continue above normal in the 30s to lower/mid 40s.  Cold
advection occurs in the wake of the wave and front.  In the cyclonic
flow in the wake of the short-wave some scattered/isolated flurries
may persist Thu night with lows in the 20s with some teens over the
Adirondack Park and southern Greens.

Friday into next weekend...A brief lull in the northern stream
activity occurs on Friday with a slight chance of rain/snow
showers/flurries possible north and west of the Capital Region. The
next disturbance/clipper arrives potentially on Saturday with low
chances of rain and snow showers.  Temps finish the week and open
the weekend at or above climatological normals for late Feb.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00z Monday...VFR conditions prevail across all terminals
this evening as clouds increase across the region ahead of an
incoming disturbance. VFR conditions should persist through the
00z forecast cycle with ceilings progged to remain well within
this threshold. It is possible that KPSF see some light snow
showers in its vicinity early tomorrow morning which could
worsen conditions to MVFR or even IFR, but confidence was not
high in this element of the forecast, so left this out of the
TAF for now. Winds will primarily prevail out of the southwest
to start, gradually veering to the northwest by the end of the
period with sustained speeds remaining under 10 kt.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA...SHSN.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Wasula
NEAR TERM...Gant/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...Gant