469
FXUS61 KALY 311842
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
242 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Slight risk for severe thunderstorms expanded into portions of
the mid Hudson Valley for Tuesday. Also lowered max temps even
further for Tue-Wed, especially from Albany north and east.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Low pressure system and approaching warm front bring showers
and non-severe thunderstorms late tonight into Tuesday morning
with locally heavy rainfall.

2) A few strong to severe thunderstorms possible south and west
of the Capital Region Tuesday afternoon into the evening with
an isolated flash flood threat for the region.

3) Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into
Thursday with some strong thunderstorms and isolated to
scattered instances of heavy rainfall/flash flooding possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Approaching warm front and upper level shortwave from the west
will bring increasing coverage of showers this evening and
overnight, with some embedded thunderstorms developing after
midnight and continuing through Tuesday morning. PWAT`s
increase overnight to 1.75 to just under 2 inches, along with
forcing from approaching upper level shortwave as well as
developing dual upper level jet structure (one upper jet across
northern Maine, another approaching from Great Lakes region)
should allow for some heavier bands of showers to develop later
tonight. Some weak elevated instability could also allow for a
few embedded thunderstorms. Rainfall rates of 0.50-1"/hour could
occur.

It appears that heaviest rain potential might be near or north
of I-90 around daybreak Tuesday where best forcing overlaps deep
moisture, before shifting south and east during Tuesday
morning. Will have to watch for ponding of water in low
lying/poor drainage and urban areas for the Tuesday morning
commute, with isolated flash flooding possible.
Showers/thunderstorms should then shift south of the region by
midday with areas of drizzle then lingering.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Additional showers/thunderstorms are expected Tuesday afternoon
as some surface based instability develops, mainly for areas
south and west of Albany. 12Z/HREFs suggest MU CAPES of
1000-2000 J/kg may develop in these areas by late Tuesday
afternoon, amid 0-6 km shear of 30-40 KT, with greatest overlap
across the SE Catskills and mid Hudson Valley, which is where
the Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms has been included for
Tuesday afternoon. Latest CAMs suggest some potential for
supercell development across the mid Hudson Valley region
Tuesday afternoon, with isolated to scattered instances of large
hail and damaging winds possible. Given enhanced low level
shear across portions of the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT in
close proximity to an effective warm frontal boundary (possibly
reinforced from earlier convective outflow), can not rule out a
tornado or two in the mid Hudson Valley region as well.
Showers/thunderstorms may eventually shift south and east of the
region Tuesday evening as forcing and instability decrease
further.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Stronger upper level shortwave approaches from the Great Lakes,
along with surface occluded front late Wednesday into Thursday.
Although much of Wednesday may just be cloudy with only spotty
showers or drizzle and rather cool temperatures in the 60s/lower
70s, areas of rain and embedded thunderstorms are expected to
develop Wednesday evening and continue into Thursday. Main
concern during this time period will be additional locally heavy
rain, especially should it coincide spatially with areas which
receive antecedent heavy rainfall. An area of Slight Risk for
Excessive Rainfall will be located across the Mohawk Valley, SW
Adirondacks and upper Hudson Valley region with a Marginal Risk
for the remainder of the region. Surface based instability may
remain limited to the westernmost Mohawk Valley, eastern
Catskills and perhaps mid Hudson Valley, however elevated
instability should allow for a few embedded thunderstorms,
especially areas west of the Hudson River Valley. Should any
breaks in the clouds occur Wednesday through Thursday, a few
stronger thunderstorms can not be ruled out, especially across
portions of the Mohawk Valley, mid Hudson Valley and NW CT given
the strong mid level winds (40-50 KT) expected across the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 18z Tuesday...VFR conditions currently prevail across all
terminals this afternoon, though clouds are continuing to increase
across the region ahead of a complex system. Some light showers have
also crossed into our CWA boundary, approaching ALB/PSF/POU per
latest scans of the ENX radar, but high dew point depressions seem
to be keeping most of the precipitation elevated. There could be a
couple of instances of some light rain or drizzle in a couple of
hours, particularly at POU and PSF, but VFR conditions are not
expected to be deviated from.

That said, as this afternoon becomes this evening and tonight,
clouds will continue to thicken with ceilings developing and
lowering as deep-layer moisture increases. More widespread rain
showers will also move into the area, worsening conditions into the
MVFR category everywhere. With ample moisture, it`s likely that both
visibility and ceiling heights will drop into the MVFR category
initially. However, as moisture continues to increase and rain
potentially gets moderate, ceilings at least will fall into the IFR
category. IFR visibility will be possible, but confidence was not
high enough in this element of the forecast to include this in the
TAFs at this time. This is primarily due to the uncertainty in the
placement of the heaviest rainfall.

Showers continue into the morning tomorrow, potentially
transitioning to thunderstorms by the end of the TAF cycle. However,
due to continued uncertainty in the overall occurrence and locations
of thunderstorms, we did not include thunder in the TAFs at this
time. We will provide more detail in future iterations as confidence
increases. Winds will prevail primarily out of the south to
southeast through the duration of the 18z TAF period, with sustained
speeds remaining under 10 kt. Of course, should a thunderstorm occur
and track over one of the terminals, wind speeds could pick up and
become breezy.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...24/15
AVIATION...12