646
FXUS61 KALY 181745
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
145 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will track from southeast Canada today into
northern New England tonight, providing continued dry and cool
conditions into Tuesday. An upper level disturbance and low
pressure system will bring the next chance of showers Tuesday
night into Wednesday. A drier air mass will build back in
Thursday into Friday, as temperatures moderate to normal levels
for the second half of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message:

- Increasing chances (40-60%) for some beneficial rainfall
  Tuesday night into Wednesday, especially from around I-90
  north.

Discussion:

High pressure centered over southern Quebec will shift east
into Maine/Canadian Maritimes tonight, providing a continued
dry/cool northerly flow. Winds should generally decouple,
although there will still be a slight pressure gradient so some
areas will have a light east wind at times. With the dry air
mass in place and mainly clear skies, low temperatures will be
quite cool for mid August with 40s to lower 50s. Some colder
spots in the Adirondacks could drop into the upper 30s.

Tuesday will be another tranquil day as high pressure shifts
east just off the New England coast, and continues to bring
dry/cool weather. Temperatures look slightly warmer than today,
with highs in the mid to upper 70s in most lower elevations.
High level cirrus clouds will increase, especially later in the
day which will filter the sunshine.

Unsettled weather is then expected to head our way Tue night
into Wed, as an upper level shortwave trough approaches from the
Great Lakes along with increasing convergence along an inverted
surface trough over northern/central NY. Trends in 12z CAMs
(HRRR/NAMNest) showing more widespread rainfall and higher QPF
along/near the inverted trough. NBM guidance is much lower, so
will blend in some of the CAMs data to reflect an upward trend
in PoP/QPF especially from around I-90 northward late Tue night
through much of Wed. Temperatures may also end up being cooler
if a wetter/cloudier scenario plays out. Moisture isn`t
anomalously high and instability is basically nil, so heavy rain
is not anticipated as rainfall would likely be beneficial.

Showers will taper off Wednesday night as the system tracks
south/east of the area with some clearing and fairly cool
temperatures expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure builds in across our region Thu into Fri, as
Hurricane Erin tracks northeast and away from the east coast.
The high will provide tranquil weather with temperatures warming
back to normal levels. By Sat, temperatures look to reach above
normal as southerly winds increase ahead of a strong low
pressure system expected to be positioned north of the upper
Great Lakes.

It appears ridging should hold through Sat with continued dry
weather, then chances for showers and T-storms look to increase
Sat night through Sun, as the system`s cold front moves east
across the region. The initial cold front looks to exit by Mon,
however short wave disturbances moving through the large scale
upper level trough could bring additional scattered showers with
temperatures cooling back slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Flying conditions are currently VFR across the region with just
some thin cirrus around northern areas. Through the rest of the
day, flying conditions will continue to remain VFR with no
precip and a mostly clear sky (just some patchy cirrus clouds
around). Northerly winds continue to be around 10 kts, but these
will diminish towards evening.

Winds will be very light or calm for the overnight hours. Sct-
bkn cirrus clouds will continue into tonight for all sites, but
no precip is expected with high pressure in control. With a dry
air mass in place, widespread fog isn`t expected, although some
patchy fog can`t be ruled out at KGFL towards daybreak due to
local terrain effects.

On Tuesday, it will continue to stay VFR with no precip,
although some clouds will start to increase, with mid level
clouds becoming bkn by the late morning hours. Southerly winds
will be 5 to 10 kts through the day on Tuesday.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JPV/Wasula
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...Frugis