218
FXUS61 KALY 261926
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
326 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Chances of rain and cooler temperatures are expected to close out
the work week, with warmer air and storms briefly possible
Saturday. Drier, but warmer weather returns for Sunday, with
hotter and humid conditions for Monday. Another round of showers
and storms arrives with a cold front Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Key Message:

- Scattered to numerous rain showers tapering off tonight with
  cooler temperatures

Discussion:

18z surface analysis showed a stationary front stretching across the
central Great lakes into the Mid Atlantic. Dense overcast with
scattered to widespread rain showers were ongoing along and to the
north of the front across the Southern Tier into western New
England. This will remain the case heading into the late afternoon
and evening as several weak shortwave impulses track just to
the north of the area, with coverage expected to become more
isolated to scattered tonight. Can`t rule out a rumble of
thunder given low levels of MUCAPE and elevated instability,
though the greatest threat will remain to the south and west of
the region. Outside of rain showers, skies will remain partly to
mostly cloudy.

Weak easterly flow with a surface high building across New England
will allow overnight lows to drop into the low 50s (terrain) to near
60 (valleys), despite the cloud cover.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message:

- Dry for most Friday into Saturday morning with increasing chances
  of showers and storms areawide beginning Saturday afternoon

Discussion:

Aforementioned high pressure that will be centered just north of New
England will slowly begin to track northeast during the daytime
Friday. This high and cool, dry east flow should be enough to help
keep much of the area dry through the daytime, though isolated to
scattered rain showers will be possible mainly in the higher terrain
of the ADKs nearer to the mid-level frontal boundary. Temperatures
will be a little cooler compared to today, with PM highs ranging
from the low 60s (terrain) to low 70s (valleys). Some across the
highest terrain may not even see 60.

As the surface high departs to the northeast, a surface low and
trailing shortwave aloft will approach from the Great Lakes. The
approach of the low will help lift the stationary front to our south
back north across the region as a warm front Friday night, ushering
in increasing amounts of moisture and lift to the region. This will
result in shower and storm chances (40-60%) mainly across our far
north into the North Country and US/Canada border, with lesser
values to the south. Lows Friday night will be somewhat milder in
the 50s to mid 60s, with highs Saturday back near to normal in the
70s to low 80s (though there remains some uncertainty in this value
depending on cloud cover and how far north the warm front can get,
so expect additional adjustments).

Attention then turns to the cold front that will be attached to the
surface low, which is progged to track across the region Saturday
afternoon and evening. Overall system dynamics remain unimpressive
with this morning`s model guidance as the main shortwave/closed low
aloft and surface low will be displaced well to the north of the
region, and uncertainties in how warm we will get also make
confidence in severe weather chances low. However, those who can get
into the warm sector (best thinking right now is south of the
Capital District into the Mid-Hudson Valley) could see a risk of PM
showers and thunderstorms, with a low potential for some to be
strong. SPC maintains a general thunder risk at this time. Storms
will also be capable of producing torrential rain given high
dewpoints nearing 70 degrees and PWATs in the 1.50-2.00" range.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Messages:

 - Increasing heat and humidity early near week with peak heat
   indices nearing 95 Monday.

 - Another round of showers and storms Tuesday with a cold front

Discussion:

Leftover showers and storms from Saturday night will exit by early
Sunday morning, with most seeing dry conditions and near normal
temperatures with high pressure passing to the south during the
daytime. For Monday, renewed southerly flow behind the departing
high pressure will send a warm front back north across the region.
Low level temperatures will be warmer this go-around with 925-850
hPa values around 15-20 degrees C, allowing PM highs to climb well
into the 80s areawide (some near 90 in the western Mohawk Valley).
With dewpoints rising into the upper 60s/ to lower 70s, peak heat
indices of around 90-95F are expected in lower elevations.

Another shortwave and cold front will arrive across the region
Monday night into Tuesday, resulting in another round of showers and
storms for the region. Depending on the timing of the cold front,
some stronger storms may occur on Tuesday if the front moves through
later in the day. Confidence remains low at this time on the severe
weather potential. Temperatures will be slightly cooler Tuesday, but
will remain warm, humid and above normal despite the higher precip
chances.

Drier conditions should prevail for much of the region
by mid week with weak high pressure following the cold front.
However, guidance does hint at potential for low chances
(10-30%) of PM rain showers and storms with weak shortwave
impulses embedded in northwesterly flow behind the front.
Regardless of the storm chances, it will be noticeably less
humid with temperatures back to near normal in the upper 70s to
low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
We start the TAF period with scattered rain showers across
KGFL, KPSF, and KALB airfields. Kept mention of light rainfall
in TEMPO groups for these TAF sites as rain showers quickly move
through and become more vicinity showers through 00z. For KALB
through 19z, kept mention of the IFR conditions with the passing
shower in a TEMPO as conditions should improve once the shower
moves through. Otherwise, VFR conditions should continue through
tonight with periods of MVFR conditions after 6z and kept
mention of overnight shower activity in PROB30 group for KALB.
For KGFL, kept mention for tomorrow morning rain shower activity
in PROB30 groups as confidence is low to mention in the
prevailing. Winds continue to be northerly this afternoon
becoming light and variable for the overnight hours into
tomorrow morning.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Speck
NEAR TERM...Speck
SHORT TERM...Speck
LONG TERM...Speck
AVIATION...Webb