708
FXUS61 KALY 111013
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
613 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions and hot afternoon temperatures continue through
Wednesday. 50-70% chances for rain showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday afternoon with lingering shower activity into
Wednesday night. Dry conditions return for the end of the week
into this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Messages:

 - Hot afternoon temperatures through Wednesday; Feels-like
  temperatures could range between 93-98 degrees across valley
  locations on Wednesday.

 - 50-70% chances for rain showers and thunderstorms Wednesday
  afternoon across eastern New York and western New England.

Surface high pressure overhead continues to support dry conditions
across eastern New York and western New England through
Wednesday morning. Hot afternoon high temperatures, especially
in river valley locations, range in the mid 80s to low 90s
through Wednesday. Feels-like temperatures today and tomorrow
will feel like the actual temperature outside (mid 80s to low
90s) as a more humid airmass overhead doesn`t build in until
Tuesday evening into Wednesday. Wednesday is favored by latest
National Blend of Models data to feel the hottest day this week
across valley locations in eastern New York and western New
England as feels-like temperatures range between 93-98 degrees.
While high temperatures range in the upper 80s to low 90s, a
more humid airmass is in place and contributes to feeling muggy
outside. Two forecast notes which contributes to forecaster
confidence being low for if heat headlines may be needed the
next few forecast days; Increasing cloud coverage could limit
how high the actual temperature reaches during the afternoon
hours. Latest probabilities from the National Blend of Models
data for high temperatures greater than 90 degrees on Wednesday
across valley locations is between 50 and 60 percent. While it
will feel hot outside, we may not reach criteria for heat
headlines. Nevertheless, we will be going on day three of
temperatures being hot outside and a cold front will work its
way into eastern New York and western New England Wednesday
night bringing relief to the humid conditions and hot afternoon
temperatures for the rest of this week into this weekend.

A cold front moves through Wednesday afternoon and evening bringing
ahead of it 50-70% chances for rain showers and thunderstorms
during the afternoon and evening hours. Environmental conditions
needed for a few strong storms to develop is present in latest
ensemble forecast model guidance and National Blend of Model
data, but exact timing and location is still fluctuating with
forecast model guidance. At this forecast time, thunderstorms
and rain showers look to be widely scattered. Primary concerns
with any developed thunderstorms are lightning, heavy downpour,
and strong winds. Continue to monitor latest forecasts as we get
closer to Wednesday with more details on strength and exact
location impacts. Lingering rain shower activity could continue
through the overnight hours (15-30% chances) as the cold front
pushes through eastern New York and western New England.

Dry conditions return with surface high pressure building in across
eastern New York and western New England on Thursday and
continue into this weekend. Temperatures remain seasonable and
comfortable with highs in the upper 70s and low 80s for Thursday
and Friday. For this weekend, above normal temperatures could
return with highs ranging in the upper 80s to low 90s but
probabilities for temperatures greater than 90 degrees in valley
locations are between 50 and 75 percent.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 12z Tuesday...Any reduced cigs and/or vis will improve back to
VFR by around 12 UTC. Then, VFR flying conditions the rest of
the TAF cycle as high pressure maintains a strong hold over the
Northeast. Calm winds early this morning become south or
southwesterly by 14-16 UTC with sustained speeds under 10 kt.

Outlook...
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for NYZ063>066.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Webb
DISCUSSION...Webb
AVIATION...Speciale