172
FXUS61 KALY 140554
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
154 AM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and muggy again today with isolated to widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, especially for areas
south and east of the Capital District. Then, relief from the
humidity arrives tonight into tomorrow before temperatures turn
hot and muggy this weekend. Next chance for showers and storms
arrives Sunday before we trend cooler than normal next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message:

 - Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms this
   afternoon, especially south of Interstate 90. Heavy downpours
   and lightning are primary hazards from any storm.

 - Temperatures trend above normal this weekend with a 50-75%
   chance for high temperatures to reach or exceed 90 on Sunday.

Our sfc cold front continues to push southward tonight with
latest IR imagery showing the boundary already tracking through
the North Country. It will continue to push southward tonight
from north to south but with limited moisture and IR imagery
showing warming cloud tops, little in the way of showers
expected along the boundary. As the front advances southward
overnight, sfc winds will shift to the north. While the wind
shift boundary will cross through much of our forecast area by
12 - 15 UTC this morning, the parent shortwave is displaced to
its north and will track eastward across Quebec today. A weak
upper level trough axis will sag southward through our forecast
area this afternoon and with the air mass ahead of it still
quite warm and muggy, forecast sounding show mixed-layer CAPE
values reaching 500 - 1000 J/kg with plenty of mid-level dry air
supporting high DCAPE values again >1000 J/kg. Since the
forcing for ascent is tied to the incoming trough axis, lifted
air parcels will have to contend with the mid-level dry air
which looks to limit convective initiation with CAMs suggesting
just isolated to widely scattered shower/storms developing by 16
- 18 UTC close to or just north of I-90 before pushing
southward. Areas south of I-90 will have more time to
destabilize ahead of the trough axis and thus will have the
greatest potential for storm development. While deep layer shear
values are higher than yesterday ranging 25-30kts, forecast
soundings show much of the speed shear exits above 500hPa so
storms will have to grow upscale and tall enough to benefit from
the stronger wind profiles. In addition, the backing wind
profiles with northerly winds within the sfc - 500hPa layer will
support a discrete storm mode with storms tracking from north
to south. Potential for storms to become severe is low today
given abundant mid- level dry air and weak mid-level capping.
However, any storm can produce lightning and heavy downpours
given PWATs still 1-1.5".

Storm coverage diminishes shortly after sunset with clearing
skies thereafter as Canadian high pressure builds south and
eastward towards the Gulf Maine. Northerly winds will continue
to advect a much drier air mass southward with PWATs dropping
below 1" for Friday (PWATs nearly 1-2 standard deviations below
normal per the NAEFS). Favorable radiational cooling Thursday
night will lead to comfortable overnight lows in the mid to
upper 50s in the hill towns and higher terrain with low to mid
60s in valley areas. Forecast soundings indicate very dry
moisture profiles for Friday so lowered dew points compared to
the NBM to message the anticipated relief from the humidity.
Otherwise, Friday remains seasonably warm reaching into the mid
to upper 80s under abundant sunshine as upper level
ridging/subsidence builds into the Northeast.

We trend back above normal Saturday and Sunday as high pressure
shifts further east into the Canadian Maritime, supporting
southwesterly return flow. Besides a few diurnal showers and
storms in the northern and eastern Catskills, Saturday will
remain dry with humidity creeping back upwards and temperatures
approaching 90 once again, especially valley areas. The next
system we are closely monitoring holds off until Sunday when a
more potent shortwave trough tracks through Ontario and Quebec
and its associated sfc cold front sinks southwards into the
Northeast. There remains uncertainty on where the strongest
upper level forcing will be positioned; however, with the sfc
boundary pushing into a very warm (50-75% chance for highs to
reach or exceed 90 in valley areas) and increasingly humid air
mass, we continue to message widespread chance POPs for Sunday
afternoon with higher end chance and likely POPs in the southern
Adirondacks.

We then trend cooler for the early part of next week with the
Climate Prediction Center showing 50-60% confidence in below
normal temperatures in its 6-10 day outlook (Aug 19-23).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Patchy fog continues to impact KPSF and KGFL with MVFR/IFR/LIFR
conditions fluctuating through 13-14z. For KALB and KPOU, patchy fog
could develop once the high clouds move out this morning so included
MVFR conditions in TEMPO groups otherwise VFR conditions prevail
through the TAF period. There are low chances (less than 30 percent)
for lingering rain showers through this afternoon. As forecast
confidence is low on potential impacts to airfields, kept mention of
shower activity out of the TAFs. VFR conditions continue for all TAF
sites after 14z and through the end of the TAF period. Light and
variable winds continue through this morning when winds become more
northerly for this afternoon between 3 and 8 knots.

Outlook...

Thursday Night to Sat Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Rathbun/Speciale
DISCUSSION...Speciale
AVIATION...Webb