781
FXUS61 KALY 211959
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
259 PM EST Fri Feb 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Lots of sun today albeit breezy and chilly. Temperatures
gradually trend milder this weekend with some lake effect snow
showers for the western Adirondacks Saturday night into Sunday.
Temperatures continue to trend milder through early next week with a
few weak clipper type disturbances that may bring a mix of rain and
snow showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
GOES16 Day Fog channel show clouds most areas across eastern NY
and western New England have given way to plenty of sun this
afternoon outside of the far western Mohawk Valley and
southern/western Adirondacks. The abundant sun/insolation has
led to deep boundary layer mixing resulting in quite gusty winds
with latest ASOS and NYS Mesonet observations showing gusts
reaching 25 - 30mph with up to 35mph in the Mohawk Valley.
Despite the sun, it still feels cold today given temperatures
only in the teens to mid 20s (low 30s in the mid-Hudson Valley)
and gusty winds. Latest wind chills or "feel-like temperatures"
are in the single digits and teens.

We stay cold into tonight. While initially clear skies and a
decent snow pack will support effective radiational cooling,
winds will remain a bit breezy through about Midnight before
turning light/variable. Once the winds turn light, wind shifts
to be more westerly in response to the building ridge that
flattens out as it shifts east of Lake Ontario. Winds becoming
more westerly will help usher in more lake moisture and thus
increase cloud coverage overnight. So, overnight lows will be a
bit tricky as discussed in the previous discussion depending
upon how quickly winds weaken and clouds return. Either way,
still expecting quite the chilly night as probabilistic
temperatures show 40 - 90% chance from I-90 northward for
temperatures to fall below 10 degrees by 7 AM Saturday morning.
Coldest temperatures expected in the Upper Hudson Valley where a
few sub-zero temperatures are expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

A generally pleasant weekend ahead for most of eastern NY and
western New England with temperatures finally trending above
freezing each afternoon. Early clouds tomorrow give way to
partly to mostly sunny skies as a shortwave tracking to our
east supports subsidence in its wake. With the mid and upper
level flow shifting to the west and southwest, the return flow
will support temperatures finally warming towards to a few
degrees above freezing. Mildest temperatures in the mid-Hudson
Valley in NW CT where mid-30s are expected. Luckily the winds
will be lighter tomorrow. Westerly winds continuing Saturday
night combined with an incoming weak shortwave impulse will
support a lake effect response with snow showers extending into
the western Adirondacks. Some upslope snow possible for southern
VT. Moisture is lacking only only expecting up to an inch of new
snow. Otherwise, skies turn cloudy and temperatures fall into
the teens and 20s throughout the region.

A boundary weakens and stall over the area on Sunday and with
westerly/confluent flow remaining in place, expecting mostly
cloudy skies. Despite the clouds, westerly flow will still
advect in a milder air mass and high temperatures will rise into
the mid to upper 30s in valley areas. Higher terrain and valley
areas rise into the 20s with light snow showers in the western
Adirondacks gradually weakening through the afternoon. Clouds
continue overnight with our stalled boundary lifting northward
as a warm front. A few light snow showers remain possible, even
outside of the higher terrain, in response to increasing warm
air advection. Overall QPF amounts remain light and thus limited
POPs to slight chance mainly for southern Adirondacks but
future forecast updates may see POPs expand into valley areas
depending on trends.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Message:

- Above normal temperatures are expected for much of next week with
a series of clipper systems bringing periods of rain and snow at
times.

Discussion:

An active northern stream pattern will set up next week with
multiple shortwaves passing through the region. It appears there
will be at least three different clipper systems with approximate
timing of each being Monday-Monday Night, Tuesday-Wednesday and on
Thursday. Temperatures next week trend above normal with highs in
the 30s and 40s with lows generally in the 20s and 30s. This would
result in each system bringing mixed rain and snow pending on
temperatures and elevation. Best snow accumulations look to occur
across the Adirondacks but look to be on the light side due in part
to each system containing limited moisture and QPF amounts. The
Thursday system could be the most amplified of the three with more
QPF, but even then, the overall spread in the strength and track of
this system and amounts of rain or snow remains high this far
out.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18z Saturday...VFR conditions are primarily expected at
KALB/KPOU/KGFL through the period with high pressure building across
the region. The exception is KPSF, where moisture rich upslope flow
will continue to promote low-clouds and MVFR ceilings through the
afternoon and evening. Ceilings will scattered out this evening,
favoring a return to VFR conditions.

Northwesterly winds will be in place through this afternoon with
occasional gusts between 25-35 kt. Wind will diminish to less than
10 kt tonight, and will become light & variable for some.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Speciale
NEAR TERM...Speciale
SHORT TERM...Speciale
LONG TERM...Rathbun
AVIATION...Speck