016
FXUS61 KALY 041815
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
215 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the region tonight will result in dry and
cool conditions. Temperatures will warm back to normal levels on
Saturday, as high pressure shifts east off the coast.
Increasing heat and humidity is then expected for Sunday and
Monday. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will also increase
on Monday, as a cold front starts to slowly move south across
the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
After stellar Independence Day weather, tonight will be clear
and cool with high pressure directly over the area into Sat
morning. There could be some patchy fog in typical sheltered
areas, but otherwise clear skies and light winds will lead to
good radiational cooling conditions with lows mainly in the
lower to mid 50s.

As high pressure shifts east off the coast on Sat, a southwest
flow will develop around the periphery of the departing high.
This will result in temperatures warming considerably during the
afternoon after a cool start to the day. Highs should reach the
lower/mid 80s in most valley locations. Subsidence will still
prevail, so mostly sunny and dry conditions expected to persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Messages:

- Hot and humid conditions Sunday into Monday. Heat Advisories
  may be needed in some areas.

- Showers and thunderstorms develop on Monday associated with a
  cold front passage.

Discussion:

Tranquil conditions, but with milder temperatures(lower/mid
60s) in store for Sat night with a south-southwest flow
persisting. More significant heat and humidity return on Sun,
with warming aloft well ahead of a cold front slowly sagging
south across SE Canada. 850 temperature anomalies are forecast
to increase to +1 to +2 STDEV. Highs expected to reach the lower
90s in most lower elevations with dewpoints increasing to
around 65-70F. This results in maximum feels- like temperatures
in the mid to upper 90s, so Heat Advisories would eventually
likely be needed in some areas. The cold front should remain far
enough north for dry conditions to persist through Sun.

The cold front`s progress should slow Sun night as weak waves
of low pressure develop along it. So again much of the area
looks to avoid any convection except for maybe far northern
reaches of the W. Adirondacks. Sun night will be mild and humid
with lows only in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

Mon will be another very warm and humid day, with similar high
temperatures(lower 90s in valleys) and feels-like temperatures
in the mid/upper 90s. The cold front is expected to slowly push
southward into the area, especially during the afternoon/evening
hours. Given the warm/humid air mass, some stronger
thunderstorms may occur with deep layer shear ~25-30 kt
resulting in potential for organized storms. Also locally heavy
rain is possible as PWAT anomalies rise to +1 to +2 STDEV. Low
confidence in timing/coverage for now, but will continue to
monitor trends.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Message:

- Near normal temperatures with somewhat unsettled conditions,
  especially later in the week.

Discussion:

The aforementioned cold front will continue to push southward
through the area Mon night, with chances for showers and some T-
storms persisting. Potential for T-storms will diminish
overnight as instability wanes. The front may slow or even stall
on Tue across the southern part of the area, so chances for
showers/T-storms will linger especially south/east of Albany. It
will remain rather humid, but high temperatures(mid/upper 80s
valleys) should be slightly cooler due to more cloud cover.

The front should eventually shift south of the area by midweek,
but may still be in close enough proximity to result in widely
scattered diurnally driven convection on Wed. Temperatures still
look to be slightly above normal with moderate humidity levels.
A better chance of more widespread unsettled weather is
expected Thu into Fri, as a deepening upper level trough and
potential surface cyclone move across the area. NBM showing
chance PoPs through the period, which seem reasonable for now
until details come into better focus.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18z Saturday...VFR conditions continue through at least
the first half of tonight with just a few mid-level clouds
around. With high pressure moving overhead tonight, some patchy
fog is expected at GFL/PSF and has been added with tempo groups.
IFR or lower vsbys expected with any fog. Fog dissipates
shortly after sunrise with a return to VFR conditions with FEW
to SCT high clouds around through 18z Saturday. Winds will be at
5-10 kt from the NW through this evening with some gusts of
15-20 kt, before diminishing to 4-8 kt from the west this
evening. Winds become calm by midnight lasting through mid-
morning tomorrow before increasing back to 4-8 kt from the S/SE.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...Main