964
FXUS61 KALY 040621
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
221 AM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Seasonably warm and breezy conditions are expected today,
although chances for showers and thunderstorms increase late
this afternoon into this evening. Mainly dry weather returns
for the rest of Friday before another cold front brings another
round of widespread rain and thunderstorms on Saturday. Behind
this front, tranquil weather and below normal temperatures are
expected through the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message

 - A beneficial rainfall is expected late this afternoon into
   tonight

Discussion:
As of 2:20 AM EDT...High pressure at the surface has shifted off
to the east of our region, but has retained enough influence to
keep our skies clear overnight. An occluded low is vertically
stacked beneath a potent upper low near Hudson Bay, and its
associated cold front is located back over the Great Lakes. Ahead
of the cold front, we are already seeing the pressure gradient
tighten. The more sheltered areas that have decoupled have seen
temperatures radiate into the mid to upper 40s, while areas in
the Hudson Valley that are seeing a light wind remain in the
upper 50s to low 60s. Most areas should see temperatures drop a
couple more degrees between now and sunrise. Patchy fog is also
expected to develop towards daybreak for areas where winds
remain calm.

Today starts off mostly dry and sunny. With clear skies,
temperatures will rise into the upper 70s to low 80s for daytime
highs. With the pressure gradient continuing to tighten, the 850
mb LLJ increases to around 30-35 kt this afternoon and evening.
With expected deep daytime mixing per BUFKIT model forecast
soundings, we have bumped up winds from the NBM into the 25-30kt
range, strongest where southerly flow will be channeled up the
Hudson Valley. We also reduced NBM dew points by as much as 5-10
degrees in some areas. Please see fire weather section below for
more details on the elevated risk of fire spread today given
gusty winds and low RH.

While areas from the Hudson Valley eastwards will see a mainly
dry day with a mid-level cap in place, a line of showers and
thunderstorms will track into our western Mohawk Valley and ADK
zones ahead of the approaching cold front late this afternoon
and evening. For these areas, guidance suggests up to around 500
J/kg of SBCAPE. With around 35-40 kt of deep-layer shear and
20-30 kt of 0-3km shear in place, a few stronger storms (gusty
winds will be the primary hazard) will be possible in the
western Mohawk Valley and western ADKs late this afternoon and
evening. SPC has kept the marginal risk for severe weather in
these areas, which seems appropriate given the high shear/low
CAPE setup. The line of showers and storms should weaken with
the loss of daytime heating and instability as it tracks further
eastwards across the region this evening into tonight. That
being said, would not be surprised to see some sub-severe wind
gusts mix down within these showers/storms given the strong LLJ.
This system will bring some much-needed rain to the region,
with rainfall amounts generally ranging from around a tenth of
an inch in western CT to around 0.75" in the southern ADKs.
While briefly heavy rain is possible within any thunderstorms,
we will reiterate that the antecedent dry conditions and fairly
fast storm motions will prevent any sort of a hydro/flood
threat. Showers should track off to our east by 12z Friday, with
lows dropping into the 50s to low 60s for most areas.

Friday and Friday night...Friday, we will be behind the front,
although temperatures will still top out in the upper 70s to low
80s outside of the high terrain. In fact, a warm front will
actually lift northwards Friday night as the LLJ strengthens
again from the S/SW, allowing for low-level warm advection. A
couple isolated showers will be possible Friday north and east
of the Capital District with the departing frontal boundary
stalling in central New England, but overall the lack of large-
scale forcing should keep most areas dry. While not quite as
breezy as Thursday, some wind gusts of 20-25 kt will be possible
again in the afternoon due to the combination of daytime mixing
and the strengthening LLJ overhead. Friday night lows will
range from the mid 50s to mid 60s, and it will be more muggy
compared to previous nights. Showers are expected to develop
late Friday night for western areas ahead of the next cold
front.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Messages:

- Another round of rainfall and thunderstorms is expected on
  Saturday. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are also
  possible for areas south and east of Albany.

- The first frost of the fall season is possible across portions
  of the southern Adirondacks early next week.

Discussion:

Saturday...The upper low remains situated north of the Great
Lakes, and as an upper shortwave rounds the base of this upper
low it will become negatively tilted and drive a second,
stronger cold front through our region. Saturday morning,
western areas will likely see a period of steady, stratiform
rain on the cold side of the front, closer to the upper
shortwave and the right entrance of the upper jet.

For areas ahead of the front (mainly south and east of the
Capital District), Saturday starts off dry, but showers and
storms are expected to develop in the afternoon as the cold
front and upper forcing track further eastwards. Temperatures
ahead of the front climb into the low to possibly mid 80s
Saturday, with dew points increasing well into the 60s. This
will allow up to 1000-1500 J/kg of SBCAPE to build ahead of the
front. While the core of the LLJ looks to move off to the east
of our region Saturday morning, there should still be plenty of
deep-layer shear (potentially 40-50 kt) in place for some
storms to potentially become strong to severe. There remains
some uncertainty in how quickly the front progresses eastwards.
If the front is faster, then the instability may be shunted to
the east of our region, thereby limiting the severe threat. If
the front is slower, then this would allow for more instability
and increase the severe threat. Regardless, with fairly strong
forcing and deep moisture (PWATs up to 1.75"), most areas should
see an additional round of much-needed rain Saturday afternoon
into Saturday night. Showers come to an end Saturday night as
the front tracks off to our east with overnight lows dropping
into the 40s (high terrain) to 50s (valleys).

Sunday through Wednesday...Our region remains under the
influence of a broad upper trough, so we will see several days
of below normal temperatures, with highs mainly in the 60s to
low 70 each day and lows in the 40s each night. Some 30s will
be possible in the high terrain areas, especially Monday night.
Some lake effect showers will be possible in the western ADKs
Sunday behind the front as an upper shortwave tracks over the
Great Lakes, but in general this time period will feature dry
and tranquil weather as surface high pressure builds overhead
through at least the middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Flying conditions are currently VFR for all sites. Satellite
imagery and surface observations show clear skies across the
region. While some of the sheltered sites have seen winds go
calm (such as KGFL and KPSF), sites influenced by larger
valleys (such as KALB and KPOU) continue to see a light
southerly breeze. Through the rest of the overnight, the light
breeze should prevent any fog from developing at KALB and KPOU,
but a period of IFR mist/fog is expected for KGFL/KPSF for a few
hours during the late night just prior to sunrise. Any fog/mist
should dissipate quickly, with VFR conditions returning by 12z.

During the day on Thursday, flying conditions will be VFR. After
a clear start to the day, mid and high level clouds will
increase for the morning and early afternoon hours, with all
sites seeing bkn cigs around 10-20 kft by the mid to late
afternoon hours. Southerly winds will increase to around 10 kts
during the day, with some gusts of 20-25 kts by afternoon,
especially at KALB.

As a frontal boundary approaches, a line of showers and perhaps
embedded thunderstorms will approach for after 00z. Best chance
will be for northern sites (mainly KGFL and KALB), but a period
of MVFR showers (and perhaps brief IFR visibility as well) is
expected for a few hours the early part of Thursday night.
Southerly winds will continue to be 5-10 kts into Thursday
night.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
* Elevated risk of fire today for portions of the Upper Hudson
  Valley/Champlain and Hudson Valley FDRAs in NY, as well as all
  of southern VT*

Today, southerly winds increase to 10-15 mph with gusts of 25-35
mph possible this afternoon. The strongest wind gusts are
expected in and around the Hudson Valley. RH values are
expected to drop as low as 35-45%, with portions of the Upper
Hudson Valley and southern VT potentially seeing RH values as
low as 30%. Given the overlap of low RH values, gusty winds, and
recent dry conditions, SPSs have been issued for the entire
Hudson Valley and all of southern VT in coordination with state
partners.

RH values will begin to rise late this afternoon and evening as
a line of showers and storms brings a widespread wetting rain to
the region. Friday remains breezy with some wind gusts of 20 to
possibly 30 mph, but minimum RH values will be higher, generally
above 50-55%. Another widespread round of showers and storms
Saturday should further reduce fire weather concerns for the
second half of the weekend into early next week.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Main/Rathbun
SHORT TERM...Main
LONG TERM...Main
AVIATION...Frugis
FIRE WEATHER...Main/Rathbun