955
FXUS61 KALY 250514
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
114 AM EDT Mon Aug 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will work its way across the region today, and will be
accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms. This front will
bring cooler temperatures this week, along with a low chance of rain
showers at higher terrain and in lake effect zones through
Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Messages:

- Showers and thunderstorms with lightning and locally heavy
  downpours with a cold front passage through this afternoon.

- Dry conditions favored for most with below normal temperatures
  for much of the upcoming week.

- Low chance of rain showers (20-50%) of rain showers across high
  terrain and lake effect regions tonight through Wednesday.

06z surface observations and analysis showed a weak area of low
pressure just west of Montreal, with a cold front extending south
across central New York and central Pennsylvania. KBGM/KTYX/KENX all
showed a line of showers and storms along and ahead of the front
across the North Country, Mohawk Valley and Southern Tier, which has
been slowly working its way east since yesterday afternoon.

For today, the cold front remains on track to sweep through eastern
New York and western New England, and will remain accompanied by
scattered showers and storms, though storm coverage will wane
through the morning. This activity will exit the region to the
east by early afternoon with the front, with sunshine on the
increase with dry air increasing aloft. Additional isolated
rain showers will be possible this afternoon mainly in the
Mohawk Valley, western ADKs and Catskills with CVA aloft ahead
of the trough, but these will diminish by this evening with the
sunset. Winds will shift from south to west, and will promote
temperatures cooling beginning this afternoon. Before that, most
areas should see highs climb into 70s to low 80s outside of
high terrain. Lows Monday night will drop into the 40s (terrain)
to low 50s (valleys).

Heading into midweek, much of eastern NY and western New England
will see dry conditions with a mix of sun and clouds each day as
surface high pressure builds over the Mid Atlantic. Cold air aloft
combined with cyclonic flow and the warm upstream Great Lakes
will promote isolated to scattered rain showers (20-40%) across
the Mohawk Valley and western ADKs, with some showers extending
as far south/east as the Catskills, Capital Region and southern
Greens/northern Berkshires, especially Tuesday through early
Wednesday. Temperatures Tuesday through Thursday will average
below normal for late August, with highs each day ranging from
the upper 50s/low 60s (terrain) to the low/mid 70s (valleys).
Overnight lows will range from the upper 30s/low 40s (terrain)
to near 50 (valleys). (Normal highs this time of year are in the
upper 70s/low 80s with lows in the 50s/60s)

Our next chance of precipitation comes late in the period from
Thursday night into Friday as guidance brings another cold front and
trough aloft across the area. Chances remain highest along and north
of Interstate 90 (20-50%) with this iteration of guidance, but will
need to watch this period as some deterministic models do linger
precipitation chances into the upcoming weekend.  Below normal
temperatures remain favored going into the weekend, with daily
highs in the 60s/70s and overnight lows in the 40s/50s.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A slow moving frontal boundary is approaching from the west.  Radar
imagery shows a band of showers and embedded thunderstorms west of
the TAF sites early this morning.  Although this band of showers
will be weakening, some impacts are expected at some of the
terminals over the next few hours.  A brief period of MVFR
conditions can be expected at KGFL and KALB due to showers between
07z-11z for both visibility and ceilings. Based on radar trends and
the limited instability in place, the threat for thunder will be
diminishing, so won`t include any thunder in the TAFs this
time. KPSF and KPOU should see less impacts from showers, but a
brief passing shower can`t be ruled out between 08z-12z for
these sites. While it should stay VFR at KPOU, the upslope flow
and brief showers could allow for some MVFR ceilings at KPSF
right around sunrise. This could linger for an hour or two, but
all sites should be back to VFR by the mid morning hours. South
to southwest winds will be light for the rest of the overnight
and will be around 5 kts on Monday morning.

As the front starts working eastward, skies will be gradually
clearing through the day, with just sct clouds around by the
afternoon hours.  As the front crosses, winds will become westerly
around 10 kts for all sites.

Winds will decrease somewhat for Monday evening into Monday night
and it will continue to stay VFR with no precip.  Skies will be
clearing out with just few lingering mid level clouds around for
Monday night.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Speck
DISCUSSION...Speck
AVIATION...Frugis