599
FXUS61 KALY 310916
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
416 AM EST Fri Jan 31 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A storm system approaching from the Midwest will bring a light
wintry mix of rain, freezing rain and snow this morning into the
afternoon ahead of the warm front. A transition to snow will
occur tonight into Saturday morning some accumulations expected.
High pressure builds in with cold and dry weather to open the
weekend before the next clipper low brings snow for late Sunday
and Sunday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Key Messages:

 - Moderate confidence in areal coverage of freezing rain this
   morning through early afternoon for the Winter Weather
   Advisories currently in place from the Mohawk Valley, Greater
   Capital and Saratoga Region and Berkshires southward.

 - Low confidence for freezing rain occurrence and timing of
   changeover back to snow for the southern Adirondacks, Lake
   George region and southern VT for this afternoon.

Discussion:
As of 415 AM EST, high/mid level clouds are increasing, though
have remained thin enough to allow temps to drop into the lower
teens where winds have become calm, such as portions of the Lake
George Saratoga region and the central Berkshires. Where a light
south wind has developed, temps have warmed to between 25 and
30.

Dry air within the lower levels of the atmosphere looks to hold
off precipitation until a bit later this morning, as noted in
several CAMs. Precipitation now looks to develop after
daybreak, between 7 and 10 AM from south to north for areas
south of I-90, and not reaching the I-90 corridor until late
morning. This may reduce the areal coverage of freezing rain in
these areas somewhat, as temperatures may rise slightly above
freezing in some areas. However, ground surfaces will likely
remain colder and retain the potential for icing despite temps
rising slightly above freezing. So, keeping the winter weather
advisory in tact, with expectation of at least areas of freezing
rain to occur this morning, allowing untreated ground surfaces
to become icy.

North of I-90, precipitation is not expected to develop until
around or shortly after noontime. Lower confidence in P-type in
this area (northern Mohawk Valley, southern Adirondacks and Lake
George region into southern VT), where a light snow/rain mix is
favored at onset. There could be some pockets of freezing rain
as well, and should surface temps remain colder, areal coverage
of freezing rain may become greater. Should areal coverage
remain limited, this can be handled with Special Weather
Statements. However, should temps remain colder and areal
coverage expected to become greater, a short fuse expansion of
Winter Weather Advisories may be needed.

Overall ice accumulations will remain light, generally a light
glaze (trace) to up to less than one tenth of an inch. Hazardous
travel conditions on untreated ground surfaces will be the main
impact.

Precipitation should become mainly rain after a few hours of
precipitation onset, however may change back to snow for areas
north of I-90 by mid to late afternoon as stronger forcing cools
the atmosphere. A period of moderate snow may develop across
portions of the southern Adirondacks, Lake George Saratoga
region and southern VT later this afternoon, with some
possibility of it developing even farther south, closer to I-90.
Trends will need to be watched through the day. A quick coating
to one inch of snow could occur in these areas toward or just
after sunset.

High temps mainly in the mid/upper 30s today, cooler north of
I-90.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

 - Low to moderate confidence in potential moderate snowfall
   amounts (>3") across the southern Adirondacks, Capital
   Region, Lake George Saratoga region and southern VT early
   tonight.

 - High confidence in very cold temperatures Saturday
   night/early Sunday, but with little wind.

 - Low to moderate confidence in potential moderate snowfall
   amounts (>3") across SW Adirondacks late Sunday into Sunday
   night.

Ongoing transition to snow from north to south this evening as
stronger forcing and possible banding from mid level
frontogenesis continues. There could be a narrow deformation
west to east deformation band north of I-90 this evening where
snowfall rates of at least 0.5"/hour occur. HREF probs for
>1"/hour have decreased from last night, generally 10-20 percent
across higher elevations of the SW Adirondacks and southern VT.
For now, expecting a period of light to moderate snow this
evening for areas north of I-90, eventually sinking southward
and decreasing in intensity during the evening hours. Current
forecast snowfall amounts are 1-3" across the southern
Adirondacks, Lake George/Saratoga region and southern VT, with
locally higher amounts across higher elevations in southern VT.
Generally an inch of less is expected south and east of this
region, perhaps greater across higher terrain in Schoharie
County and the Rensselaer Plateau. Lows by daybreak falling into
the mid teens to lower/mid 20s, with some single digits across
the SW Adirondacks.

Lingering snow showers/flurries may persist Saturday morning
across portions of the Capital Region and northeast Catskills
within some localized convergence and upslope flow, otherwise
gradual clearing Saturday with brisk north winds. Highs mainly
in the teens and 20s.

High pressure builds across the region Saturday night. With a
dry airmass in place along with expected nearly calm winds,
temps will likely drop rapidly after sunset, with low temps
reaching zero to 10 below for many areas north of I-90, and
single digits to the south. A nearly calm wind will keep wind
chills ("Feels-like" temperatures) close to the actual air
temps.

Clouds increase Sunday, with light snow developing in the
afternoon, especially areas near and north of I-90 as yet
another clipper system approaches. A general 1-3 inch snowfall
is expected north of I-90, with locally higher amounts across
portions of the SW Adirondacks where latest LREF 24-hour
probabilities for >3" of snow is 40-50% (ending 1 PM Monday).
The steady snow should taper off after midnight, however there
could be some lingering light snow or even patchy freezing
drizzle. Highs Sunday mainly in the 20s, and lows Sunday night
in the upper teens/mid 20s with slowly rising temps expected
after midnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Messages:

 - Multiple weather systems have potential to move through next week
bringing chances of precipitation (50%).

 - Temperatures fluctuate throughout next week between being
seasonal to above average.

The first week of February starts off with high temperatures above
average on Monday ranging between 35 (western Adirondacks) and 50
degrees (Mid-Hudson Valley). The clipper like system continues to
move northward Monday afternoon across Canada bringing chances of
rain and snow to locations north and west of Albany (30-50%) through
Monday evening before tapering off for the overnight hours. A cold
front moves through Monday night and Tuesday morning bringing
temperatures overnight into Tuesday morning to more seasonal with
lows ranging in the teens to upper 20s. High temperatures on Tuesday
remain near seasonal after the cold front moves through with highs
ranging in the low 20s to upper 30s. Dry conditions are in store for
Tuesday with surface high pressure overhead. Lows Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning range in the single digits to low 20s.

Beginning early Wednesday morning, ensemble forecast models are
hinting at multiple upper level shortwaves to move through into the
end of next week bringing unsettled weather conditions. Surface high
pressure moves east Tuesday night with our next chances of
precipitation for Wednesday morning (50%). While forecast models are
still in disagreement on where precipitation will occur,
probabilities of precipitation are near 50 percent for eastern New
York and western New England to see measurable precipitation
Wednesday through Thursday either in the form of rain, snow, or
freezing rain/sleet. Highs on Wednesday range in the mid 20s to mid
30s. Lows Wednesday night into Thursday morning range in the upper
teens to upper 20s. By Thursday, highs return to above average
ranging in the upper 30s to upper 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions continue for all TAF sites through 31/12z. After 12z,
precipitation could move in to KPOU in the form of freezing rain so
kept mention of onset timing between 12z and 15z in TEMPO groups.
For KPSF and KALB, kept mention of onset timing between 15z and 18z.
For KGFL, onset timing is between 18z and 20z and precipitation
should fall as all snow as temperatures are forecasted to below
freezing when the snow arrives. As precipitation becomes widespread
between 15z and 18z, temperatures begin to moderate to above
freezing and precipitation becomes rain for KPOU, KPSF, KALB during
this timeframe. IFR conditions from when precipitation begins
through the end of the TAF period due to low level clouds and
periods of fog/mist at all airfields when precipitation ends towards
the end of the TAF period. Winds remain between calm to light and
variable throughout the TAF period.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SN.
Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SN.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...RA.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     Ctz001-013.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     Nyz038>061-063>066.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 PM EST
     this afternoon for Nyz038>041-047>054-082-084.
MA...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     Maz001.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 PM EST
     this afternoon for Maz001.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL/Wasula
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...Webb
AVIATION...Webb