345
FXUS61 KALY 190631
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
231 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure near southeast Canada and New England will
bring fair and dry weather today.  Clouds will thicken and lower
tonight ahead of an upper level disturbance and a low pressure
system approaching from the lower Great Lakes Region and Ohio.  A
widespread rainfall is expected Wednesday into early Thursday from
the low pressure system with drier weather returning for Friday into
Saturday with temperatures rising back to near to slightly
above readings for late August.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Message:

- There is a 30-50% chance for a half inch or greater of
  beneficial rainfall based on the 01Z NBM from 06Z WED to 06Z
  THU across eastern NY and western New England.

Discussion:

As of 231 am EDT...

A pleasant morning across eastern NY and western New England
with high pressure over southeast Quebec and northern New
England bringing mostly clear to partly cloudy skies due to some
cirrus with temps in the 40s and 50s. The sfc anticyclone will
slowly shift east of the Gulf of Maine this afternoon into
tonight with the mid and upper level flow becoming flatter. Mid
and high clouds will increase during the day especially north of
the mid Hudson Valley. We are expecting partly sunny to mostly
cloudy conditions but dry weather. The PWAT anomaly of 1 to 2
STDEVs below normal shifts downstream. The 00Z KALY sounding had
a PWAT of 0.43" last night. Max temps will still run slightly
below normal, but will be a tad warmer than yesterday with
mid/upper 70s in the valley areas and mid 60s to lower 70s over
the hills and mtns with light winds.

Tonight, a short-wave approaches from the Great Lakes Region
and Ohio Valley. Clouds continue to thicken and lower with
decent isentropic lift setting up ahead of a low pressure system
slowly approaching from the northern OH and western PA. The
upward vertical motion and moisture transport increases on the
short-range deterministic guidance, CAMS and NBM. The showers
increase from west to east after midnight with highest PoPs in
the 55-75% range over the w-central Mohawk Valley and western
Dacks prior to sunrise for a quarter to half inch of rain. Lows
are expected mainly in the 50s with some upper 40s over the
higher terrain.

A widespread soaking rainfall is now projected for Wed.
This is good news with a lot of the forecast area dry lately
over past 3-4 weeks and D0 on the latest Drought Monitor over
the Capital Region, Mohawk Valley, Lake George Region, southern
VT and the northern Berkshires. The low to mid level FGEN
increases ahead of the sfc wave and its inverted sfc trough.
Periods of rainfall with some rates increasing to one tenth to
one quarter of an inch an hour may occur. The axis of heaviest
rainfall has shifted slightly further southward over the Mohawk
Valley, Schoharie Valley, Capital Region, northern and eastern
Catskills, as well as the Berkshires. The NBM probs for 1" or
more of rainfall are in the 20-30% range, but the 0.50" or
greater rainfall amounts for all of eastern NY and western New
England are 30-50% 06Z Wed to 06Z Thu. A few rumbles of thunder
are possible, especially south and west of the Capital Region
and we kept a slight chance of thunderstorms in, though the
MUCAPE looks scant on the CAMS. PWATS increase to an inch to
inch and a half with the anomalies a standard deviation or so
above normal . The clouds and rain-cooled air will keep temps
down and possibly 15-20 degrees below normal highs. We could be
flirting with record low maxes! The Albany record low max for
August 20th is 66F set in 2007. We went lower than the NBM by
2-4 degrees, but not quite as cool as the latest MET/MAV
guidance with highs in the lower to mid 60s in the valleys and
mid 50s to around 60F over the higher terrain.

Wed night the rainfall tapers off from west to east with the low
pressure system passing off to the south and east. Total
rainfall looks to range in the 0.50-1.50" range across the hydro
service area. Hurricane Erin looks to remain off the East
Coast, as it gets picked up by by the upper trough and lifts
slowly into the northern Atlantic on Thu. Temps will be cool Wed
night in the mid 40s to mid 50s. A few showers may linger with
the upper trough passage early Thu, but high pressure will be
building in from the Great Lakes Region and Ontario. The skies
will become partly sunny/partly cloudy on Thu with highs
rebounding into the lower to mid 70s across the lower elevations
and 60s to lower 70s over the hills and mtns,

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Message:

- Max temps briefly rise above seasonal normals on Sat. Chances
  of showers and thunderstorms increase on Sun.

Tranquil weather returns Thu night into the first half of the
week. High pressure continues to ridge in Thu night into Fri
with Hurricane Erin moving further Northeast into the North
Atlantic. Some radiational cooling Thu night will allow temps to
fall into the upper 40s to mid 50s. A large-scale ridge builds
in from the west on Fri with increasing low and mid level
heights with max temps trending close to seasonal normals with
70s to lower 80s. Humidity levels will remain comfortable Fri
into Sat. The mid and upper level ridge moves over the Northeast
and East Coast by Sat with H850 temps rising slightly above
normal. The NBM supports max temps in the lower to mid 80s below
1000 ft in elevations with mainly 70s above it.

Conditions become a bit more humid Sat night into Sun with the
next mid and upper level trough approaching front west and its
attendant cold front. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
may impact the forecast area Sat night with a prefrontal sfc
trough with lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s. The cold front
with a weak low moving along it brings better chances of showers
and thunderstorms on Sun with dewpoints creeping up into the
low and spotty mid 60s across portions of the forecast area. The
cold front and perhaps a wave of low pressure moving along it
continue a threat of showers and few t-storms into Sun night. In
the broad cyclonic flow, and embedded short-wave or sfc trough
will keep the threat for scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms around to open the week, as temps cool down
slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06z Wednesday...VFR conditions prevail across all
terminals this morning with the anticipation for such to
continue throughout the entirety of the 06z TAF period. Though
fog development cannot be ruled out at the usually susceptible
spots of KGFL and KPSF, increasing high-level clouds should help
to mitigate this throughout the morning. Speaking of increasing
cloud coverage, high to mid-level clouds will continue to stream
into the region today ahead of an incoming disturbance that will
bring rain to the region late tonight. The only site that could
see rain beginning before the termination of the 06z period is
KGFL so a PROB30 group was included accordingly. This should
begin light enough to keep conditions within VFR thresholds, but
will continue to monitor and amend with future iterations.
Otherwise, winds will begin out of the northeast and veer to the
southeast by the close of the 06z cycle with sustained speeds
remaining below 10 kt.

Outlook...

Wed-Wed Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thu to Sat: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...Gant