744
FXUS61 KALY 241125
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
725 AM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes with this forecast update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Seasonable weather is expected over the next several days
with opportunities for rain occurring Saturday into Saturday
night and again Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A wave of low pressure and an upper level trough will track SE
from the Great Lakes to the mid Atlantic region Sat into Sat
night. There will be a sharp edge/cut-off to the rain shield
due to a supply of drier air along the western periphery of a
large upper low over the Canadian Maritimes. The drier air will
battle moisture/forcing from the wave passing by to our
south/west. Most guidance shows the best likelihood of rain for
areas south/west of Albany and especially across the E. Catskills,
mid Hudson Valley, S. Taconics into the Litchfield Hills. Where
is does rain, QPF of 0.20-0.70" expected, with the greatest
amounts across Ulster, S. Dutchess and SW. Litchfield counties.
Still expecting at least some wet snow to mix in across the
highest elevations of the E. Catskills, especially Sat evening.
A slushy coating to 1" may accumulate above 2500 ft. Due to
potential for any subsequent shifts/wobbles in the storm track,
will mention chance (30-40%) PoPs around the I-90 corridor, with
< 20% farther north/east. Even where it doesn`t rain it will be
cool/cloudy, with highs only ranging from the 40s in the higher
terrain to lower/mid 50s in valleys. The rain will gradually
taper off from NW to SE late Sat night into Sun A.M. with skies
gradually clearing on Sun. Temperatures will be milder, but
still slightly below normal Sun afternoon.

After a few dry/seasonable days, the next chance of showers
arrives Tue into Wed, as a frontal system moves across the area.
Guidance is showing the system weakening as it approaches, due
to the main upper dynamics passing by well to our north in SE
Canada. NBM showing mainly chance PoPs through this period,
which seems reasonable for now given uncertainty regarding the
magnitude of forcing/moisture available.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12z Saturday...Conditions remain mostly unchanged from
the previous TAF period with VFR conditions prevailing through
this cycle as well. All terminals will see SKC by noon if not
already. Mid level clouds will try to linger at KPOU but should
still see a brief period of SKC a little later in the afternoon
around 20z. The windiest part of the day will be over the next
hour or so with a few gusts possible up to 20 kt from the north
along the Hudson River particularly at KALB. Winds shifted more
northeast slightly earlier behind the weak backdoor cold front
and will remain from the north/northeast with speeds 5-10 kt
until about 04-06z tonight and will then taper off into the
morning.

Outlook...

Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...53