294
FXUS61 KALY 121939
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
339 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal low pressure system brings widespread rainfall to eastern
New York and western New England this evening into tonight.
Rain continues into the day tomorrow becoming more scattered for
tomorrow afternoon and evening before dry conditions return
Tuesday. Dry conditions continue through the end of the work
week into at least the first half of the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

Key Messages:

 - Beneficial rainfall tonight and tomorrow with widespread
   rainfall amounts over 0.25 inches.

 - Across the higher terrain of the eastern Catskills,
   confidence continues to increase for rainfall amounts over 2
   inches in 48 hours.

Discussion:

Rain is on the way from the southeast to northwest this
afternoon into tonight as a coastal low moves northward along
the Atlantic coast and brings widespread beneficial rainfall to
eastern New York and western New England. Latest radar scans
show light rainfall moving into Litchfield county that continues
to head northeast. A few rain showers are moving through ahead
of the main event, but should only bring less than a trace of
precipitation. The current forecast supports widespread
rainfall amounts over 0.25 inches. For locations south and east
of Albany, rainfall amounts continue to support for over 0.5
inches. Terrain influence over the southeast Catskills, Mid-
Hudson Valley, Litchfield Hills and Windham county in southern
Vermont support for over 1 inch of rainfall in the 48 hour
period through Tuesday morning. Latest National Blend of Model
data, high resolution model, and ensemble forecast model
guidances continue to support for the higher terrain locations
in the eastern Catskills for over 2 inches of rainfall in 48
hours from tonight through Tuesday morning. The period of
steadiest rainfall is overnight tonight into tomorrow morning.
The primary impact is that this rainfall is beneficial for
locations that have been seeing very dry conditions and there
are no flash flooding concerns as rainfall rates will be less
than 0.25 inches per hour. Breezy conditions continue for
locations south and east of Albany through tonight into the day
tomorrow with gusts ranging between 20 and 30 mph. Winds
decrease tomorrow evening as the low heads east to less than 15
mph.

Temperatures are going to only have a minimal difference
overnight into tomorrow morning as the clouds help the surface
keep warm with air temperatures ranging in the 40s tonight.
Highs in the 50s tomorrow and in the 50s to low 60s for Tuesday.
As the coastal low heads east tomorrow night, dry conditions
return for Tuesday. A dry cold front moves through Tuesday
bringing colder air behind it for Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning with lows in the 30s and mid- 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Dry conditions continue under surface high pressure. For
Wednesday, breezy conditions are in store for the afternoon
hours as upper level winds mix down to the surface is supported
by latest ensemble forecast model guidances to occur. The
current forecast supports wind gusts ranging between 20 and 30
mph. High temperatures Wednesday through Friday are forecasted
to be 5 to 10 degrees below normal with highs ranging in the 40s
and 50s. For low temperatures, 10 to 15 degrees below normal
with highs in the 20s and 30s. Thursday night into Friday
morning could be a few degrees colder than currently forecasted
as clear skies and cold air aloft sinks down to the surface
during the overnight hours, but the current forecast is doing
well with low temperatures during that timeframe with higher
terrain locations in the mid-20s to low to mid-30s in the
valleys.

The most likely scenario (supported by 85% of cluster ensemble
members) for Saturday is for dry conditions to continue through the
day with low chances of rain showers to move through the western
Adirondacks during the late afternoon hours. Beyond the daytime
hours for Saturday, ensemble forecast model guidances start to
disagree with if we continue to see dry conditions or if an upper
level trough that brings 15 to 30 percent chances of light rain
showers for Saturday night. The latest forecast supports for light
rain shower activity Saturday night into Sunday morning.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18z/Mon...A coastal low pressure system will impact the
TAF sites through the period. Clouds will continue to gradually
thicken and lower from south to north this afternoon and evening
with rain gradually overspreading the region from southeast to
northwest as well. The increase in clouds and precipitation will
result in a trend toward MVFR conditions by this evening and
remain mostly MVFR through Monday. Periods of IFR conditions
could occur at times overnight through Monday morning due to
cigs and/or vsbys with the higher confidence at KPSF but could
occur at KALB/KPOU as well. Wind will be northeasterly at 10-15
kt through this evening, becoming north to northeasterly at
similar speeds overnight through Monday morning. A few gusts
20-25 kt could occur at times, especially at KPOU/KPSF.
Borderline LLWS is expected at KPSF tonight through Monday
morning with winds at 2000 ft between 40-45 kt.

Outlook...

Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely RA.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05/37
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...33