528
FXUS61 KALY 040629
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
229 AM EDT Fri Sep 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Added patchy fog through Saturday across eastern New York and
western New England.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) No impactful weather is expected across eastern New York and
western New England through Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
For today, a weather system continues to move further south and
east for a dry day in store across eastern New York and western
New England. For Saturday afternoon and evening, an upper level
shortwave is supported by latest forecast model guidances to
move through eastern New York and western New England for one
more day of unsettled weather conditions. While most locations
will see partly to mostly cloudy skies, there are medium chances
(40-60%) for rain showers and a rumble of thunder for southern
Vermont and the Berkshires during the afternoon hours Saturday.
There are low chances (less than 30 percent) across the southern
Adirondacks, Mohawk Valley, Schoharie Valley, Greater Capital
District, and Lake George- Saratoga regions. With the nature of
the rain showers to be on the light side, there are no flooding
concerns for Saturday afternoon and evening. Then, surface high
pressure builds in from the northwest and dry conditions return
for the rest of the Labor Day weekend across eastern New York
and western New England through Tuesday next week.

Wednesday night into Thursday next week is looking to be our
next best chance (50-75%) for precipitation across eastern New
York and western New England. Exact rainfall amounts and the
track of the weather system has been fluctuating with latest
ensemble forecast model guidances, so forecast confidence is
low at this time on potential impacts. With dry conditions
before our next round of precipitation, flooding concerns are
very low at this forecast time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An area of showers is currently moving across the Catskills. A
few rumbles of thunder have also been ongoing with this
activity. While this activity should stay south of most of the
TAF sites, it will impact KPOU over the next 1-2 hours. Within
the showers, MVFR conditions are be expected for both visibility
and ceilings. Cannot totally rule out brief IFR conditions for
visibility, but it looks very brief and isolated so won`t
include in the TAF. Elsewhere, it should stay dry through the
rest of the overnight hours. While KALB will remain VFR with
sct-bkn high level clouds, the other two sites (KGFL and KPSF)
will see some radiational fog continue to develop through
daybreak. This will result in IFR/LIFR visibility for both of
these sites through daybreak, especially at KPSF, where
visibility may be as low as 1/4SM.

After sunrise, the fog will dissipate and it will go back to VFR
for all sites by 13z. Through the entire day on Friday, flying
conditions will be VFR with sct-bkn diurnal cumulus around 5-7
kft and some passing cirrus clouds. West-northwest winds will be
5-10 kts through the day for all sites. These clouds will
mostly dissipate on Friday evening, with just few clouds
lingering into Friday night. Winds will become light to calm for
all sites. Some radiational fog may try to develop once again
late Friday night for KGFL and KPSF.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Labor Day: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...12/05
AVIATION...27