808
FXUS61 KALY 231739
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1239 PM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly cloudy conditions with a chance of snow showers
and flurries will continue north and west of the Capital Region this
afternoon with temperatures near normal for late February.
Temperatures are expected to warm up starting Monday, with above
normal temperatures expected through the upcoming work week. There
will be several chances for some light rain/snow showers this week,
especially on Tuesday and Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.Update...As of 1239 PM EST...Clouds increase over most of the
forecast area with the exception being portions of the mid
Hudson River Valley and NW CT closer to the I-84 corridor. Some
light lake effect/westerly upslope snow showers and flurries
continue northwest of the Capital District in the western Mohawk
Valley, western Adirondacks, and northern Catskills. Not much
measurable pcpn in the NYS mesonet the past 6 hours with a few
hundredths at Cold Brook, 5 hundredths at Old Forge and a couple
hundredths at Raquette Lake with light snow amounts of a
coating to an inch or so. We expanded the slight chance PoPs
into the Mohawk Valley and northern Catskills, as the upper
disturbance moves through. Expect some drying from aloft that
may cause the clouds to clear south of I-90 late in the day. The
main cold front remains close to the St Lawrence River Valley.
We did expand the clouds with this update north of I-84. Max
temps will reach slightly below normal to near normal values
with lower/mid to upper 30s in the valleys with a few lower 40F
readings near I-84. 20s to lower 30s over the hills and mtns.
West/southwest winds at 5-15 mph in most locations. The
Adirondacks will be the coldest with an additional coating to
inch of snow in a few spots.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message:

- Max temps moderate to above normal to open the week.

Discussion:

Tonight, an area of high pressure over the southeastern US
expands northwards, while a separate area of high pressure
tracks towards our region from the Great Lakes. This should
result in some additional breaks of clouds, especially south and
east of the Capital District, where winds will also be light to
calm. This may lead to a period of efficient radiational
cooling, allowing lows here to drop into the low 10s. Valley
areas remain warmer, with lows in the 20s. Overnight lows are
tricker north and west of the Capital District as a tightening
pressure gradient ahead of a clipper system tracking into the
northwestern Great Lakes region may keep winds slightly elevated
across our northwestern zones. Should winds here go calm, then
temperatures would likely end up below the current forecast.

Monday and Monday night...Aforementioned cold frontal boundary
lifts northwards as a war front early Monday morning as a fairly
potent upper shortwave and associated 980 mb sfc low track
north of the Great Lakes. This will put our region in the
system`s warm sector Monday, and with S/SW low-level flow we
should see temperatures in the 30s to 40s region wide, with some
mid to upper 40s even possible from the Capital District
southwards due to downsloping off of the Catskills. Recent
trends in guidance keep the clipper system well north of our
region. With the warm front and upper dynamics also remaining to
our north, most of then day Monday should be dry. There could
be a few light rain/snow showers Monday night as a weak cold
frontal boundary tracks from northwest to southeast across the
region, but current thinking is that any precip should be brief
and isolated. Lows will be rather warm Monday night with most
areas remaining in the 30s.

Tuesday and Tuesday night...Another upper shortwave twill take
on a negative tilt as it tracks near or south of our region
during the day Tuesday. An area of low pressure will offshore
should help block better moisture transport from reaching out
region, so we will once again just have some isolated to
scattered light rain/snow showers around. Tuesday will again
feature above normal temperatures, with all but the high terrain
areas reaching the 40s. A few towns near the I-84 corridor could
approach 50 if there are enough breaks in the cloud cover. Any
showers should taper off in the evening/early Tuesday night as
the upper shortwave tracks off to our east an an area of high
pressure builds in from the west. Lows will be mainly in the 20s
to low 30s Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Message:

- Two additional clipper systems could bring periods of rain and
  snow to the region, one Thursday into Friday and another one over
  the weekend.

Discussion:

As another shortwave departs, weak upper level ridging and surface
high pressure will briefly build back into the region on Wednesday.
There could be a lingering lake effect response for some light snow
showers or flurries early in the day, mainly for the western Mohawk
Valley and Adirondacks; otherwise, a mainly dry day is expected with
highs remaining above normal (30s and 40s). If enough breaks of sun
occur, portions of the mid-Hudson Valley into southern Litchfield
County could reach 50.

The next upper disturbance approaches early Thursday and should be
deeper and more amplified than the previous systems. This should
enable it to tap into some Gulf moisture resulting in slightly more
QPF than the previous systems. Latest NBM mean QPF for this system
is between 0.10 and 0.30 inches. The overall track of the primary
surface low is now to the north and west of our region which should
lead to the bulk of the precipitation to be rain. However, some snow
could occur at the onset, especially for areas north of I-90, should
temperatures hold at or below freezing.

As the system departs, upper level troughing and a brief push of
colder air could result in some lake effect and upslope snow showers
Thursday night into Friday as low temperatures fall back into the
teens and 20s. High pressure building overhead on Friday will end
the lake effect response through the day along with a cooler
afternoon. One additional clipper system may push through over the
weekend with mixed rain and snow with the primary low tracking north
of the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18z Monday... The TAF period starts with a mix of MVFR and
VFR conditions due to low and mid-level clouds. VFR conditions
continue for KPOU through the TAF period. For KPSF and KGFL, low VFR
conditions continue due to low ceilings and could periodically fall
to MVFR conditions through 24/00z. Otherwise conditions remain VFR
for those sites through the end of the TAF Period. For KALB, MVFR
conditions will periodically occur through 22z so kept mention of
BKN clouds with lower ceilings of 3 kft in TEMPO group when
conditions should improve back to low VFR.

Winds are a mix with calm winds at KPOU that should become westerly
through this afternoon into this evening up to 6 knots. Southerly
winds at KGFL should transition over to a southwesterly to westerly
wind and become calmer for the overnight hours. And finally westerly
winds continue through this evening for KPSF and KALB to between 5
and 15 knots with periodically gusting between 10 and 20 knots at
KPSF through 23/23z. Winds become calmer for late tonight into
tomorrow morning.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...SHSN.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Main/Wasula
NEAR TERM...Wasula
SHORT TERM...Main
LONG TERM...Rathbun/Wasula
AVIATION...Webb