574
FXUS61 KALY 221731
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
131 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to allow for dry weather for
the next few days. Along with seasonably cool mornings, afternoon
high temperatures will be comfortable and mild.  The next chance for
widespread rainfall will be on Friday night into Saturday, as a
storm system moves across the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 130 PM EDT...Surface cold front is now east of the area
and is moving across New England. In the wake of the front,
dewpoints have been falling and are now in the 30s and 40s with
west to southwest winds in place.

Visible satellite imagery shows considerable clearing compared
to earlier today. Skies are now mostly sunny for much of the
area with just some flat cumulus. The one area that still has
more clouds is across far northwestern parts of the Adirondacks,
but even these clouds are starting to show a decreasing trend
over the last hour or two.

Temperatures have been fairly variable today thanks to the front
crossing west to east this morning. With the additional clouds
around and having been behind the boundary for longer, the
Adirondacks have been stuck in the mid 40s to lower 50s.
Meanwhile, areas further south and east have seen good mixing
behind the front, with temps well into the 60s to low 70s. Highs
late this afternoon while range from near 50 in the western
Adirondacks to the mid 70s in the mid Hudson Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure continues to build eastward through
tonight as zonal flow sets up aloft. Dry conditions will
therefore persist overnight as the aforementioned low continues
to deamplify and depart to the northeast. With subsidence
increasing, clouds will continue to erode, allowing temperatures
to radiate down to the low to upper 30s and low 40s.

The surface anticyclone will drift farther east Wednesday,
making for a beautiful Spring day with mainly clear skies and
highs in the mid/upper 50s to low 70s. Amplification of the high
through Wednesday night will prompt an increase in geopotential
height aloft, leading to low temperatures that will be a few
degrees milder than, though similar to, those of tonight with
values in the mid 30s to low and possibly mid 40s. Likewise, the
warming of 850 mb temperatures and sufficient mixing will
promote highs largely in the mid 60s to mid 70s Thursday.

Thursday, however, will likely not escape at least some cloud
coverage and possibly some light showers or a thunderstorm or
two, especially north of the Capital District, as a neutrally
to slightly positively- tilted shortwave propagates atop a weak
surface low tracking south and east through southeast
Ontario/southwest Quebec. Though there are some differences in
the guidance pertaining to the track and ultimate result of this
disturbance, we are beginning to see some hints that Thursday
will not be completely dry. While the overall forcing associated
with this system is rather weak, there is some enhanced
vorticity along the leading edge of the shortwave that looks to
align with orographically forced, southerly winds in the
Southwest Adirondacks that could help to counteract subsidence
from the still adjacent high and shortwave ridge and promote
vertical ascent. With SBCAPE values ranging from around 300 to
700 J/kg, mid-level lapse rates around 6-6.5 C/km, and low-
level lapse rates around 8-9 C/km within the Southwest
Adirondacks, Mohawk Valley, and Lake George-Saratoga Region, it
is possible that a few non-severe thunderstorms develop
Thursday afternoon as a result of this system. The latest NBM
probability of thunder in these areas ranges from about 15-20%
and with lower confidence in this element of the forecast, kept
PoPs to slight chance (~15-20%) at this time. Should
thunderstorms develop, winds could become gusty given inverted V
soundings and steep lapse rates promoting stronger downward
momentum.

The threat of thunder greatly diminishes with the loss of
daytime heating Thursday night, so while some lingering
scattered showers will be possible in the aforementioned areas,
removed all thunder wording after 8 PM. Lows Thursday night will
fall to the 40s and 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Message:

 -Steady rainfall expected Friday Night into Saturday with a 50%
  to 70% probability of at least a half inch of rainfall
  according to the latest NBM guidance.

Discussion:

Surface high pressure will be exiting off the coast of New
England on Friday. Despite this, it should be dry through much
of the day on Friday with at least partial sunshine, with
increasing clouds late in the day. With a southerly flow in
place, temps look fairly mild, with highs in valley areas
reaching the lower to middle 70s.

Surface low pressure will be moving across the Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley on Friday night and be crossing across the
Northeast on Saturday. Model guidance still isn`t in total
agreement, but steady precip should begin west to east across
the area on Friday evening. All areas look to be seeing rainfall
for late Friday night into Saturday morning with POPs in the 60
to 90 percent range at this time. Precip will tapering off on
Saturday during the late morning through afternoon hours (again,
timing still subject to change) from west to east. Latest NBM
guidance suggests a good shot for at least a half inch for most
areas (in the 50 to 70 percent range at this time).
Probabilities for over an inch are still on the lower side (20%
to 40%), but have increased compared to yesterday`s runs. With
the precip and clouds, temps will be cooler than Friday, but
still fairly seasonable for late April, with 60s for most areas.

Behind this storm system, another round of dry and quiet weather
is expected for Sunday into early next week with fairly clear
skies. Temps should be in the 60s again on Sunday, but may be
rising back into the 60s for valley areas early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 18Z Wednesday...VFR conditions. Fair weather cumulus this
afternoon around 4-6kft dissipate as we lose daytime heating this
evening. Then mainly clear skies tonight through tomorrow morning.

Westerly winds 5-12kts with gusts up to 20-25kts through 00-03 UTC.
West to northwest winds will decrease by 00-03 UTC with westerly
winds around or slightly under 5kts. Then, northwest winds become
sustained 5-10kts with gusts up to 15kts at ALB and PSF by 14 UTC
tomorrow morning.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Saturday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
With high pressure in control, dry weather is expected over the
next few days. Afternoon RH values will be as low as 30 to 35
percent in valley areas for Wednesday and Thursday, although
they should recover to 70 percent or above at night. With high
pressure nearby, winds will be fairly light, generally under 15
mph or less through Thursday.

The next chance for a widespread wetting rainfall looks to be on
Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis
SHORT TERM...Gant
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Speciale
FIRE WEATHER...Frugis