129
FXUS61 KALY 040619
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
219 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in from near the Mid Atlantic
Region this weekend with fair and dry weather with above normal
temperatures. High pressure will begin to shift south and east of
the region on Monday, as a cold front will approach from the west.
The slowing moving cold front will bring showers Tuesday through
Wednesday with temperatures trending back closer to seasonal October
levels by the mid week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 219 am EDT...High pressure continues to build in from the
Mid Atlantic Region and the Chesapeake Bay area this morning.
Mid and upper level heights are increasing over the Northeast
with a large scale ridge centered over the southern Plains and
Southeast. H850 temps will run about 1 to 2 STDEVs above normal
with abundant sunshine with the strong subsidence of the ridge.
Max temps were favored closer to the NBM and ECM MOS over the
NAM and GFS MOS values with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s
in the valley areas and upper 60s to mid 70s over the mtns.
Temps should rise quickly after morning valley radiational fog
burns off.

Fair and dry weather continues tonight with the sfc anticyclone in
control south of the region. Ideal radiational cooling will happen
again, but temps will be milder than this morning.  Expect some
radiational mist/fog to form in the major valleys with lows in the
upper 40s to mid 50s.  After morning fog burns off, expect another
beautiful early Oct day.  Mid and upper level heights will still be
1 to 2 STDEVs above normal based on the NAEFS with H850 temps above
normal and the actual values +13 to +15C. Max temps will still
be above normal by 15+ degrees, but still below record readings
with highs 80 to 85F in the valleys and 70s to near 80F over the
hills and mtns.

Persistence prevails, as we open the week with the dry air mass
over the region. Some radiational mist will likely form again
over and near the major river and sheltered valleys with lows in
the upper 40s to lower 50s Monday morning. A 1028 hPa sfc
anticyclone begins to slide eastward of the NJ Coast into the
western Atlantic with an increasing south/southwest flow. Partly
to mostly sunny skies are still expected with temps above
normal but slightly cooler than Sunday with upper 70s to lower
80s in the lower elevations and upper 60s to mid/upper 70s over
the higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Message:

- There is a 50-75% chance for greater than one half inch of
  rainfall across the region next Tue pm into Wed pm.

Discussion:

Milder conditions persist Monday night, but a cold front will be
approaching from the west with lows in the 50s and increasing
mid and high clouds north and west of the Capital District.
Clouds thicken and lower with a pre-frontal sfc trough
increasing the threat of showers by Tue afternoon especially
north and west of the Berkshires and mid Hudson valley. Some
pockets of weak elevated instability may allow for a few
thunderstorms over the west/southwest Adirondacks. Tue will be
the last day of above normal temps with upper 70s to around 80F
in the valley areas, and upper 60s to mid 70s over the higher
terrain.

The most unsettled portion of the forecast is Tue night into Wed
with periods of showers impacting the forecast area with
perhaps a wave moving along the front. It will be breezy. The
latest NBM and ensemble probabilities (high chance to low
categorical values) support greater than a half inch of rainfall
across the entire forecast area. In fact, the NBM 24-hr probs
ending 00Z/8 pm Wed are 25-40% for one inch or more of rainfall.
The rainfall would be very beneficial with the abnormally dry
and drought conditions persisting. Lows will be in the 40s to
lower 50s and max temps will cool down in the wake of the front
with highs closer to Oct normals in the lower to mid 60s over
the lower elevations and 50s to around 60F over the hills and
mtns.

Cold advection continues across the region Wed night into Thu
morning in the wake of the front and the mid/upper level trough
passage. Lows fall back into the 30s to around 40F near KPOU.
Some 20s are expected over the Adirondack Park. A 1032 hPa or
so sfc anticyclone ridges in over NY and New England for Thu
with a cool Canadian autumnal air mass to close the week.
Expect below normal temps on Thu to modify to closer to seasonal
values by Fri. Dry conditons should prevail, but some mid and
high clouds may increase late in the day on Friday ahead of the
next short-wave approaching from the Upper Midwest and Great
Lakes Region.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06z/Sun...High pressure near the area will bring VFR
conditions for much of the upcoming TAF period. The exception
will be for patchy fog during the nighttime hours. KGFL will be
most favored for fog (periods of LIFR/IFR conditions) with
moderate confidence at KPSF (included MVFR TEMPO until 11z/Sat)
and low confidence at KALB/KPOU (no fog mention). Fog may
redevelop at KGFL prior to 06z/Sun. Calm wind through the
overnight will be variable at less than 10 kt on Saturday. Wind
will trend calm again Saturday night.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. Patchy FG.
Monday to Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures(Year Set):

Sunday October 5:
Albany: 91(1941)
Glens Falls: 87(1951)
Poughkeepsie: 91(1941)

Monday October 6:
Albany: 90(1900)
Glens Falls: 85(1910)
Poughkeepsie: 86(2007)

Tuesday October 7:
Albany: 89(1963)
Glens Falls: 87(1963)
Poughkeepsie: 88(1963)

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...15
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...33
CLIMATE...07