484
FXUS61 KALY 231805
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
105 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Snow showers from a clipper disturbance today continues this
afternoon with lake effect and upslope enhancements in the
western/southern Adirondacks and southern Greens leading to
light snow accumulations this afternoon into tonight. We trend
milder tomorrow through Wednesday with rain showers Tuesday
afternoon into Wednesday before a more potent cold front marches
through Wednesday evening. This will result in colder and
windier conditions for the Thanksgiving holiday into the
weekend along with increasing confidence for accumulating lake
effect and upslope snow Thursday into Friday night.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

Key Message:

- Light snow accumulations through tonight for the southern and
  western Adirondacks and southern Greens with amounts ranging
  from 2 to 4 inches for elevations 1500ft+.

Discussion:

Increased warm air and moisture advection ahead of a clipper
disturbance passing through to our north in Quebec has led to
scattered snow showers today across areas mainly from I-90
north. The 12 UTC ALY sounding today showed plenty of dry air in
the low and mid-level levels with surface dew points in the low
to mid 20s and air temperatures in the low to mid 30s. Thus, as
falling light precipitation has saturated the column, wet-bulb
cooling processes has supported light snow falling from these
showers. Areas mainly 1000ft+ have seen minor accumulations
from this snow showers with much lighter intensity in valley
areas and warmer ground surfaces limiting any accumulations.
Areas further south in the mid- Hudson Valley and Litchfield
County remain mainly south of the strongest forcing and
therefore have remained drier and milder with temperatures
reaching into the upper 30s to low 40s.

As the strongest warm air and moisture advection exits to our
east this afternoon, snow showers coverage will decrease with
temperatures even slowly warming into the upper 30s to low to
mid 40s as enter in a very weak warm sector (staying colder
around freezing in the southern Adirondacks and southern
Greens). As the shortwave trough and sfc cold front push through
by 21 to 00 UTC this evening, expecting winds to shift to the
west - northwest which will usher in cooler temperatures
tonight. Stronger west to northwest flow aloft and cold air
advection behind the shortwave extending over the Great Lakes
will help elicit a weak lake effect and upslope response for
tonight. High res guidance continues to be in agreement showing
bands developing off Lake Ontario that reach into the Mohawk
Valley, western Adirondacks and northern Catskills with upslope
developing in the northern Taconics, southern Greens and
northern Berkshires starting 00 - 03 UTC. Temperatures, however,
look to remain marginal in the Mohawk Valley still only in the
mid to upper 30s which should keep precipitation as mainly rain
or rain/snow showers during any steadier precipitation. The
southern/western Adirondacks, northern Taconics, southern
Greens, northern Berkshires and northern Catskills, on the other
hand, should be cool in the upper 20s to low 30s supporting
snow as the p-type. Therefore, these are the primary areas
favored to see light snow accumulations tonight ranging from a
few tenths up to 2 inches with 2 to 4 inches for areas 1500+ in
elevation.

Lake effect and upslope snow diminishes by 12 UTC Monday as
ridging from the Great Lakes builds eastward increasing
subsidence overhead. West-northwest flow continuing will
maintain cloud coverage in the typical high terrain and hill
town areas through the morning. While valley areas should see
more breaks of sun, westerly flow funneling down the Mohawk
Valley into the Capital District should keep skies a little
cloudier as forecast soundings show moisture trapped beneath
subsidence inversion. However, clouds should give way to more
sun Monday afternoon as ridging continue to take control.
Warmer air spilling overtop the incoming ridge should also help
moderate temperatures tomorrow with highs rising into the mid to
upper 40s in valley areas with upper 30s in the higher terrain.
We stay dry into Monday night due high pressure in place but
moisture spilling overtop the ridging will cloud skies up again
preventing temperatures from becoming too chilly.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Coming soon.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18z Monday...A disturbance will continue to bring
mainly scattered -SHSN to KALB/KGFL/KPSF this afternoon. The
more persistent activity will be at KGFL/KPSF, where occasional
MVFR/IFR vsby are expected. Will mention just occasional MVFR
vsby at KALB where some downsloping should limit
coverage/intensity. Most of the activity should remain north of
KPOU, with just a stray -SHRA there. As temperatures warm later
this afternoon, rain will mix in at KALB/KGFL with the snow
showers. Coverage will decrease by 00z Sunday at most sites, but
could linger in to the evening at KPSF with upslope flow there.
Will mention mainly MVFR cigs this evening except IFR at KGFL
and VFR at KPOU. BKN-OVC cigs should persist into Sunday
morning, at borderline VFR/MVFR levels. Winds will be south-
southwest around 5-10 kt today, becoming west-northwest at 5-10
tonight.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite RA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely RA...SN.
Thanksgiving Day: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy. Slight Chance of RA...SN.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SN.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy. Chance of SN.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...31
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...31
AVIATION...07