482
FXUS61 KALY 041141
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
641 AM EST Tue Nov 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Gusty winds today, especially from the Capital District and
areas to the east, before winds finally relax tonight. Then,
our next clipper disturbances approaches tomorrow leading to
breezy winds and increasing clouds before rain and higher
elevations snow showers arrive Wednesday night. Winds turn
quite strong behind a cold front Wednesday night but weaken
through the day Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Message:

 - Wind Advisory will be in effect through 4PM today for eastern
   Rensselaer County into western Massachusetts where gusts up
   to 40 to 50 mph are likely. There is a 50 to 75% chance for
   wind gusts to exceed 35mph down the Mohawk Valley, Capital
   District, Southwest Adirondacks, Eastern Catskills.

 - Widespread 40 to 70% probability values for at least 40 mph
   wind gusts Wednesday night. Wind Advisories will likely be
   needed for most of the area. Should confidence increase in
   wind gusts exceeding 50mph, a high wind watch may be needed
   for some areas.

Discussion:

Lake effect showers will end this morning as subsidence builds
in the wake of our departing shortwave. Gusty northwest winds
will maintain cold and dry air advection through the day and
while cloud coverage will be stubborn to erode in higher terrain
areas, valley areas will turn mainly sunny. Forecast soundings
show steep lapse rates and insolation resulting in a well-mixed
and deep boundary layer that extends up nearly 700hPa during
peak heating today. With winds in the 925-850hPa layer 30 to
45kts, probabilistic guidance has increased chances for wind
gusts exceeding 45mph to 50 to 75% chance in eastern Rensselaer
County into western MA. Therefore, we collaborated with WFO
Boston to issue a wind advisory for these areas through 4PM
today. It was a close call whether or not to include the
Capital District in the wind advisory but with probabilistic
guidance generally at or under 30% for gusts exceeding 45mph, we
decided to hold off. With more lake effect cloud coverage
lingering in the Mohawk Valley, there is less confidence in
winds exceeding 45mph there. Regardless, it will be quite
blustery today for much of eastern NY and western New England
with gusts ranging 30 to 45mph. Any unsecured objects can blow
around and a few tree limbs can still fall.

High pressure centered in the Southeast U.S builds northward
tonight with shortwave ridging also building aloft. As the sfc
pressure gradient relaxes and the boundary layer decouples
shortly after sunset, winds should weaken rather quickly after
dark. While skies will be clear for the first half of the night,
a warm front associated with our next approaching clipper type
disturbance will lift northward resulting in increasing clouds
from southwest to northeast after Midnight. Between the
lingering breezy winds and increasing clouds overnight,
temperatures should not be too chilly with lows only falling
into the mid to upper 30s for most.

The sfc pressure gradient tightens once again on Wednesday in
response to the intensifying clipper approaching from the Great
Lakes. Southerly winds become breezy Wed A.M but a pronounced
low-level inversion ahead of the lifting warm front will limit
how gusty winds become. By midday or early P.M Wed, the front
finally lifts to our north eroding the inversion which will
result in deeper mixing as we enter into the warm sector.
However, increasing clouds will impede wind gust potential with
probabilistic guidance showing under 20% chance for gusts over
30mph. Our clipper continues deepening Wed P.M into Wed night
as the parent compact shortwave trough takes on a neutral to
negative tilt with additional impressive forcing for ascent
provided from the sfc low`s position in the favorable poleward
exit region of a ~150kt jet streak. Showers from this
disturbance track into areas mainly west of the Hudson river 18
- 00 UTC before spreading eastward.

The main focus will be on the cold front and line of low-topped
convective showers that march from west to east between 00 and
06 UTC Thursday. Forecast soundings from multiple sources are
in good agreement that once the front moves through Wed evening
(including potential for a few rumbles of thunder), a notable
wind shift to the west - northwest will ensue with very strong
wind gusts mixing down to the sfc immediately behind the front
lasting through the pre-dawn hours. With very strong pressure
rises occurring (10 to 15hPa from 03 - 09 UTC per the GFS), the
isallobaric wind will contribute to the strong wind potential.
Probabilistic guidance shows widespread 30 to 70% chances for
gusts to exceed 40mph with the top of the mixed layer on
forecast soundings ranging 45 to 55kts. While the strongest
winds look limited to a rather short window Wed night (~4 to
6hrs), such strong winds can certainly result in downed tree
limbs, blow around unsecured objects, and lead to isolated to
scattered power outages. There is medium to high confidence that
we will need at least a wind advisory Wed night. The latest Day
2 Convective Outlook from SPC now has our area outlined in a
marginal risk but this is primarily for the strong winds
immediately behind the convective line. Strong cold air
advection in the wake of the front will allow thermal profiles
to crash with wrap around and upslope showers overnight supporting
a changeover to snow in the southern/western Adirondacks and
southern Greens. Light snow accumulations expected here with a
30 to 70% chance for amounts to exceed 1 inch. Our clipper
undergoes cyclogensis on Thursday as it exits to our east with
strong winds and lake effect/upslope showers weakening through
the day. The strongest winds are expected Wed night with a 25 to
50% chance for gusts over 30mph Thursday morning (highest
chances in western New England) before weakening further by
Thursday afternoon. Otherwise, Thursday will be quite chilly
given strong cold air advection with high temperatures likely
under 50 degrees for most areas outside of the mid-Hudson
Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
We turn chilly Thursday night as high pressure builds overhead
and winds weaken/skies clear resulting in ideal radiational
cooling. In fact, there is at least a 70% chance for overnight
lows to fall under 30 degrees regionwide. Our forecast looks to
be on "rinse and repeat" heading into Friday night and Saturday
morning as yet another cold front and clipper track into the
Northeast. This looks to result in our next chance for
widespread rain showers with our forecast carrying likely and
categorical POPs. A brief break arrives Saturday afternoon into
Sunday as high pressure briefly returns before confidence in a
more amplified trough developing for early next week builds. In
addition, confidence also builds in temperatures trending
colder than normal for early next week. In fact, the CPC 6-10
day outlook shows 50-60% chance for cooler than normal
temperatures Nov 9-13.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 12z Wednesday...VFR conditions are primarily expected at the
terminals over the next 24 hours, as high pressure builds just south
of the region. Winds will remain west to northwesterly through the
daytime with gusts between 25-40 kt, especially at KPSF. Winds will
diminish and become light & variable tonight through the end of the
period.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of RA.
Friday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite RA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely RA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ054.
MA...Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for MAZ001-025.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...31
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...31
AVIATION...17