691
FXUS61 KALY 140521
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1221 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

.UPDATE...
As of 950 PM EST, lake effect band has set up from southern
Herkimer County extending into the west/central Mohawk Valley
and western Schenectady/Albany Counties. Based on NYS Mesonet
and DOT webcams, snow levels are around 1200 feet, with
elevations above this level mainly snow, and rain or a mix of
rain and snow below. Have adjusted PoPs for the next few hours
to account for this band, which is expected to gradually pivot
slightly west and south of current orientation as low level
winds veer slightly over the next few hours. Snow levels are
expected to continue dropping through midnight, so even valley
areas could see a changeover to mainly snow before the band
weakens. A quick inch or two of snow is possible through
midnight for elevations above 1200 feet, and generally a coating
to less than an inch below this level.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Lake effect rain and snow showers will continue through the end
of the week with continued below normal temperatures. After a
drier day on Saturday, a low pressure system will bring a period
of rain Saturday night, which may start out as freezing rain
for parts of the Adirondacks and southern Vermont. Colder air
returns to the area Sunday into early next week with another
round of lake effect rain and snow showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
We will remain under the influence of an upper level trough
through the end of the week with additional shortwaves passing
through the flow. 850 hPa temperatures remaining below zero
along with a northwesterly flow will support additional lake
effect and upslope rain/snow showers through Friday. The more
northwesterly flow tonight through Friday will result in more
broken, fragmented showers with reduced inland extent compared
to previous days. As a result, most of the lake effect shower
activity will be concentrated across areas west of the Hudson
Valley, especially the far western Mohawk Valley, Schoharie
County and the eastern Catskills. This should also allow for
some breaks of sun Friday, especially within the Hudson Valley.
Any additional snowfall accumulations will be light and
generally a coating to an inch. Some additional partial clearing
will result in temperatures falling back to the 20s to lower
30s tonight. High temperatures on Friday will once again be in
the 40s in the valleys and 30s across the higher elevations.

The trough will begin to lift out of the area Friday night as
upper level ridging and surface high pressure build overhead.
Lake effect shower activity will come to an end. Partial
clearing along with light to calm winds will result in a cold
night with lows in the teens and 20s. Some morning sun will fade
behind increasing clouds on Saturday though dry weather should
be in place for most if not the entire day with highs in the 40s
with some upper 30s across the higher elevations.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Messages:

- A low pressure system will bring mainly rain Saturday night,
  but could start out as a period of freezing rain for parts of
  the Adirondacks and southern Vermont.

- Additional lake effect rain and snow showers are expected
  Sunday into early next week.

Discussion:
A passing upper level shortwave and approaching frontal system
will bring the return of some precipitation Saturday night. This
system will bring a surge of warm air aloft with 850 hPa
temperatures rising to +5 to +7C. Most areas will only see rain
with this system. Where temperatures remain at or below
freezing, a period of freezing rain could occur. This is mostly
favored across portions of the Adirondacks and southern Vermont.
Any ice amounts look to be a light glaze (less than 0.10 of an
inch). Temperatures will fall back to the upper 20s to upper 30s
Saturday evening, then slowly rise overnight as the warm front
lifts to the north.

Precipitation will begin to taper off during the overnight hours
and into Sunday morning as a cold front crosses the region. A
cold air advection regime resumes for the remainder of Sunday as
850 hPa temperatures fall well below zero once again. This,
combined with a west to northwesterly flow pattern, will support
another round of lake effect rain and snow showers. There is a
bit of uncertainty on the overall wind flow trajectory which
could either result in some lake effect snow Sunday night into
Monday be oriented right along I-90 (a west- northwesterly flow)
or just to the south (a more northwesterly flow). Regardless,
some additional snowfall accumulations are expected heading into
early next week. By the mid to late week time frame, the
combination of surface high pressure building into the region
and a system passing to the south should disrupt the lake effect
showers and bring the return of drier weather. Temperatures for
much of next week will continue to run slightly below normal
for mid-November.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06z Saturday...ALB/GFL/POU remain VFR as of 12:15 AM EST,
with MVFR cigs at PSF. Expecting VFR conditions to prevail at
ALB/GFL/POU through the entire TAF period, with mainly SCT to
occasionally BKN cigs between 4000-6000 ft through the TAF period.
There may be more clearing after sunset Friday evening. At PSF,
MVFR/fuel alternate cigs expected through early to mid-morning
trending to low-end VFR (SCT to BKN at 3000-5000 ft) through the
remainder of the TAF period. Have included a VCSH group at POU for
the first few hours of the TAF period with some light lake effect
showers around, and have included VCSH groups this afternoon/evening
at ALB/POU/PSF where a few additional isolated light lake effect
rain/snow showers will be possible. Otherwise, winds will be at 5-10
kt from the W/NW from now through the day today with some gusts
of around 15kt possible this afternoon. Winds become light and
variable by 00- 03z Friday.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA.
Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite RA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...SHSN.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA...SHSN.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...24
SYNOPSIS...33/35
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...33
AVIATION...35