148
FXUS61 KALY 050538
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
138 AM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will bring an increase in clouds and
a few showers across the region overnight. High pressure
returns this weekend resulting in dry and pleasant conditions. A
stronger cold front Sunday night will bring another chance for
some showers Sunday night, with cooler, fall temperatures and
breezy conditions for much of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 119 AM EDT...A weak surface boundary is currently
crossing the area from west to east. A band of light rain
showers is accompanying the front, especially for areas from the
Capital Region on northward. The rainfall has been fairly
light, with NYS mesonet obs showing mainly under 0.10" of
rainfall (although locally up to a quarter of an inch in the
eastern Adirondacks).

Based on radar trends and CAMs, the best chance of rain will be
over the next few hours. By the late night hours, the front will
be east of the region and any showers will be across New
England. Some clearing may occur in the wake of the front,
although IR satellite imagery does show some mid level clouds
remaining in place on the backside of the boundary. If enough
clearing occurs, some patchy fog may form towards daybreak,
especially for areas that saw rainfall. Winds have been very
light or calm, but might start to shift to the northwest behind
the departing front.

Overnight lows will be in the mid 40s to mid 50s, with the
coolest temps in far northwestern areas where some clearing will
probably occur.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Pleasant weather continues for this first weekend in October as
a 1020 - 1025hPa Canadian high and large scale subsidence
builds in behind our departing cold front/shortwave from
tonight. Morning sun mixes with some diurnally driven cumulus
clouds tomorrow as we reach our convective temperature.
Northwest winds support cold/dry air advection and deep enough
boundary layer mixing to result in a light northwest breeze with
sustained winds 5-10kts and occasional gusts up to 15kts.
Temperatures remains slight above normal but slightly cooler
than Friday with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s. PWATs drop
under 0.50" which will make it feel rather dry.

High pressure becomes centered overhead Saturday night with
clear skies and light winds supporting idea radiational cooling.
It will turn quite cool by Sunday morning with morning lows
dropping into the upper 30s in the high terrain and low 40s in
the valley. Patchy fog possible low favorable river valleys and
near bodies of water.

Upper level ridge axis overhead Sunday morning will support sunny
skies to start the day. Our next potent shortwave trough
approaching from the Great Lakes will break down the ridging and
lead to increasing afternoon clouds. The shortwave amplifies
and even takes on a negative tilt as it advances eastward with
rain showers ahead of the sfc cold front reaching our western
Adirondack and western Mohawk Valley areas by late Sunday
afternoon or early evening. Stronger dynamics/forcing and
enhanced southerly flow ahead of the boundary looks to support
deeper moisture and thus lead to a period of more widespread
rain overnight. Rain showers progress eastward into the Hudson
Valley towards Midnight before spreading into western New
England by the pre- dawn hours. PWATs surge to 1 to 1.25" ahead
of the front along with a nose of some elevated instability so
included slight chance thunder from the I-90 south and westward
but no severe weather expected. Still some discrepancies on the
speed/timing of the boundary so we lingered chance POPs into
Monday morning but the steadiest showers likely end by sunrise.
Overall QPF amounts range from 0.15 - 0.30 inches with locally
higher amounts up to 0.25 - 0.50 inches possible should a
secondary low develop along the front as some guidance
indicates.

Morning clouds Monday morning give way to increasing sun with
breezy northwest winds ushering in a much cooler and drier air
mass that will give us our first real taste of fall. Clouds
linger in the higher terrain areas thanks to upslope/stronger
northwest winds. Highs only reach into the mid to upper 60s with
50s in the higher terrain.

The parent closed low located in Ontario will shift eastward
towards the Northeast Monday night with a secondary shortwave/trough
axis within it taking on a negative tilt as it rotates towards
the Northeast. This will serve as a secondary cold front,
reinforce the push of cold air advection, and maintain moist
cyclonic flow. Thus, expecting cloud coverage in the higher
terrain areas Mon night while the valley turns mostly clear.
Overnight lows turn chilly with lows reaching into the upper 30s
in the higher terrain areas with low to mid 40s in the valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Moist cyclonic flow continues through much of the long term
period as our closed cyclonic persists over the Northeast and
impacts our sensible weather pattern. Temperatures remain much
cooler and fall-like through the week with breezy westerly
winds over the still warm Lake Ontario waters supporting a lake
effect response. Moist cyclonic flow and lake effect will
support clouds and 30 - 40% chances for showers Tuesday into
especially Wednesday in the Mohawk Valley, Upper Hudson Valley,
and western/southern Adirondacks. Overnight temperatures Tuesday
night may drop into the low to mid 30s in the higher terrain
areas, depending on cloud coverage and wind speeds, leading to
the first real opportunity for near freezing temperatures in
eastern NY and western New England.

Our closed low finally exits Wed night into Thursday with high
pressure building eastward. This will support clearing skies and
end chances for rain showers. Temperatures remain cool/fall-like
with overnight lows Wednesday night potentially again dropping
towards freezing in the higher terrain areas, should ideal
radiational cooling conditions occur.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...We start the TAF period with a mix of VFR
to MVFR/IFR conditions. Light rain showers continue to move from
west to east across eastern New York into western New England
through the next 1 to 3 hours with the exception of KPOU where
rain shower activity has been limited to locations north of the
airfield. Rain shower activity diminishes between 7z and 10z.

For KPSF, high clouds will be moving into the airport within the
next hour as a cold front continues to move eastward that should
improve conditions from a mix of MVFR and IFR due to low cloud
ceilings to VFR. Fog could develop during sunrise for KPSF, so
mentioned the low ceilings during the early morning hours in a
TEMPO group from 11z to 13z.

VFR conditions prevails after 05/13z for all TAF sites with
surface high pressure building in from west to east throughout
the day. Winds could increase to between 6 and 12 knots during
the afternoon hours, but otherwise light and variable winds
through the 06/06z period.


Outlook...

Saturday Night to Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Mon Night to Tue Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Speciale/Wasula
NEAR TERM...Frugis
SHORT TERM...Speciale
LONG TERM...Speciale
AVIATION...Webb