173
FXUS61 KALY 220512
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
112 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Very comfortable temperatures and humidity in place through
tomorrow as high pressure remains in control. Then, we will
have another stretch of hot and muggy weather Wednesday through
the weekend with the warmest temperatures likely Thursday and
Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Based on latest temperature and dewpoint observations, the NBM
was generally too high for both. Therefore, made minor
adjustments to the hourly dewpoints and temperatures overnight
and subsequently the minimum low temperature. All else remains
unchanged.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message:

- Hot and humid conditions are expected to return Thursday and
  Friday. There is high confidence in the need for heat-related
  headlines during this stretch for valley areas.

We will enjoy a period of much more comfortable weather today
through Wednesday as high pressure from Ontario, Canada slowly
builds into the Northeast. With northerly winds ushering in a
much drier air mass (PWATs under 1" per today`s 12 UTC ALY
sounding), it will feel great outside today through tomorrow and
a good time to get outdoor work complete that may have been
tough to do in the heat/humidity over the previous few weeks.
For low temperatures tonight, we followed suite with the previous
forecast and leaned on the cooler end of guidance. Ideal
radiational cooling will support cool and comfortable conditions
and a great night to open up the windows with probabilistic
guidance showing high confidence (greater than 75% chance) for
overnight lows to fall into the 50s. Mid to upper 40s in the
southern Adirondacks, Upper Hudson Valley, and southern VT. High
pressure builds overhead tomorrow so after a cool morning, we
will enjoy plenty of sun with another comfortable day.

High pressure shifts to our east by Wednesday, inducing southwesterly
return flow as the ridge axis builds over the Northeast and a
warm front lifts towards the area. This will allow temperatures
to trend above normal and we expect afternoon highs to rise into
the mid to upper 80s with dew points creeping back into the
upper 50s to low 60s. Once the warm front crosses through the
Northeast by Thursday, the true warm sector will overspread the
region resulting in another period of hot and humid conditions.
With 850hPa isotherms rising back to +18C to +20C Thursday and
Friday, expecting high temperatures both days to rise into the
upper 80 to mid 90s. Ensemble probabilistic guidance shows 50 to
75% chance for high temperatures in the Hudson, CT and Mohawk Valley
to exceed 90 degrees both days with dew points rising back into
the upper 60s to mid 70s. The combination of high temperatures
in the low to mid 90s in valley areas plus higher humidity will
result in heat index values on both days back in the upper 90s
to low 100s. Thursday looks to be the hottest day of the week
given abundant sunshine and deep boundary layer mixing but
depending on the timing of clouds ahead of an incoming cold
front on Friday, Friday could be equally as hot. Given the
uncertainty on Friday, we lowered high temperatures a few
degrees compared to the NBM output in collaboration with
neighboring offices as we all agreed temperatures appeared too
warm (mid to upper 90s) given potential increasing clouds ahead
of the front. In addition, the NBM output was notable higher
compared to its ensemble probabilistic guidance where the 25th
and 75th percentile ranges from the upper 80s to low 90s.
Adjusting high temperatures downward on Friday also changed our
messaging as our apparent temperature values (or "feel- like"
temperatures) dropped from mid-100s or close to extreme heat
warning criteria into the low 100s which is solid heat advisory
criteria.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms increases Friday
afternoon/evening as the cold front approaches. While the
boundary will be entering into a very warm and humid air mass,
we will keep a close eye on temperatures in the 700 - 500hPa
layer as the very warm air mass could induce strong capping,
limiting severe weather potential. The boundary then looks to
weaken and even wash out a bit as it settles just to our south.
There remains uncertainty on just how far south the boundary
travels before stalling so we maintained slight chance and low
end chance POPs for the weekend. The air mass does not change
much behind the boundary so expecting warm and humid conditions
to linger into the weekend; however, confidence is low in
needing additional heat advisories.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Flying conditions are currently VFR across the region thanks to
high pressure centered west of the area over Ontario. IR
satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies for KALB/KPSF/KALB,
although a large patch of mid level clouds is impacting KPOU.
Based on satellite trends, bkn cigs around 7 kft will continue
for KPOU through daybreak, while the other sites will be mostly
clear with just some thin cirrus clouds. Surface winds are very
light or calm for all sites.  With a dry air mass in place,
widespread radiational fog is not anticipated, although local
terrain effects and a low t/td spread at KGFL could allow for
some brief mist/fog there just prior to sunrise. Any fog or mist
will dissipate quickly there shortly after sunrise.

Through the day on Tuesday, VFR flying conditions are expected
for all sites. Few-sct diurnal cu is expected for all sites,
otherwise, it will be fairly sunny with no precip as high
pressure stays in control. Northerly winds will by around 5 kts
or less. It will stay VFR into Tuesday night with no precip as
high pressure slides eastward across the area. Light to calm
winds are expected for Tuesday night and the continued dry air
mass and short duration of the overnight should help prevent
much radiational fog from forming.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis/Speciale
UPDATE...Gant
DISCUSSION...Speciale
AVIATION...Frugis