226
FXUS61 KALY 072328
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
728 PM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain exits by mid-afternoon with a few isolated thunderstorms
potentially developing late this afternoon. We turn dry and less
humid tonight through tomorrow. Clouds increase tomorrow afternoon
through Monday before a cold front on Tuesday results in our
next chance for widespread rain and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Update as of 720 PM...A couple of showers and thunderstorms
have developed early this evening in the western ADKs into the
Lake George-Saratoga Region along a weak boundary. Storms have
been fueled by SBCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg and around 40 kts of
deep vertical shear per mesoanalysis, which have helped keep
the activity going over the last few hours despite unfavorable
mid-level lapse rates. This activity should wane with the
sunset as instability decreases, with skies beginning to clear
later this evening. See previous discussion below for additional
info...

[PREVIOUS DISCUSSION]...Widespread moderate to heavy rain from
this morning has exited into western New England, ending the
flash flooding threat. We have already canceled the flood watch
for areas east of the Hudson and will allow the watch to end at
3PM for western zones as the heavy rain comes to an end. Rain
this morning was quite impressive with widespread 1 to 3 inches
and even locally up to 4 inches in Albany County. Voorheesville
NYS mesonet recorded 3.86 inches in the last 24 hours. While
rivers and creeks are rising in response to the heavy rain,
mainly along the Schoharie and Walloomsac, we are not expecting
widespread impacts.

As the heavy rain ends and clouds breaks for some sun, dew
points remaining in the 60s will help generate some surface-
based instability. The HREF shows greater than 30% chance for
1000 J/kg or more of SB CAPE to develop in the western Mohawk
Valley into the Upper Hudson Valley through 00 UTC. This
overlapped with rather impressive deep layer shear values
around 40-50 kts can support organized convection so will
maintain a close eye on radar and thunderstorm development.
Despite favorable deep layer shear and sufficient instability,
the best forcing seems to be in the mid and upper levels as the
low- level winds have already shifted to the north-northeast
already. Also mid-level lapse rates are weak under 6C/km which
can limit updraft strengthen. Any storms that develop will have
a damaging wind and hail threat as DCAPE values are forecast to
exceed 500 J/kg through early this evening and any storms that
can overcome convective inhibition should be discrete.
Otherwise, temperatures will rise into the low 70s this
afternoon as skies break for more sun, winds turn a bit breezy,
and it will remain muggy as the dew point boundary does not pass
through until early this evening. Best chance for storms looks
to be between 4PM and 9PM.


Tonight, any storms (likely mainly north and west of the Capital
District) diminish this evening with skies continuing to clear
overnight. Northerly winds will advect a drier and cool air
mass into the region resulting in much more comfortable
conditions. Overnight lows drop into the 50s. Did not include
fog given the lowering dew points and light northerly wind but
the clear skies and very saturated ground can support patchy
fog, especially in the typically wetlands/low spots.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message:

- Next potential for widespread chance returns Tuesday. While
  rainfall amounts are not expected to high (less than 20%
  chance for 24 hour precipitation amounts to exceed 1 inch),
  wet antecedent conditions (especially in the Capital
  District) will make some areas more vulnerable to localized
  flooding should locally higher rainfall amounts occur.

Discussion:

Sunday turns much more pleasant as our boundary settles into
the mid-Atlantic and Canadian high pressure builds into northern
New England as shortwave ridging slides overhead. Northeasterly
sfc winds will support lower dew points/comfortable humidity
levels with sun filtered through increasing high clouds.
Temperatures will turn seasonably warm rising into the 70s to
around 80 in the valley as the air mass aloft does not change
much in the wake of the boundary.

Warm air and moisture advection increases late Sunday P.M into
Sunday night as the boundary in the mid-Atlantic tries to lift
north as a warm front. Guidance has trended drier over the past
few model cycles as the sfc high in northern New England remains
strong and suppresses moisture to our south. In addition, a sfc
low looks to develop along the lifting front and track eastward
towards Long Island, further reducing the potential for more
widespread showers to reach our area. While we still show POPs
rising to chance by Sunday evening, we limited the northern
extent to just the I-90 corridor Sunday night. Probabilistic
guidance is even drier showing only a few spots mainly in the
northern and eastern Catskills with 20 - 40% chance for
measurable precip Sunday night. With all this said, future
forecast will likely trend POPs downwards but for now will keep
low end chance and slight chance POPs in the forecast for
potential for a few scattered showers, most favored in the mid-
Hudson Valley and NW CT. Otherwise, as our high builds into the
Canadian Maritime, a cold air damming signature develops Sunday
night keeping temperatures in the 50s and humid levels comfortable.

Monday has also trended drier as the sfc boundary in the mid-
Atlantic continues to struggle to lift northward and the high in
the Canadian Maritime stays in control. As we remain north of
the front with southeast sfc winds, areas to the north of I-90
should see more breaks of sun while areas to the south turn
cloudy in response to the lifting mid-level front and increasing
warm air/moisture advection. Not quite as warm as Sunday given
more clouds, especially in southern zones, but it will still be
seasonable for early June in the low to mid 70s.

Heading into Monday night and especially on Tuesday, a
pronounced and rather amplified trough from the Great Lakes
swings eastward resulting in downstream height falls into
eastern NY and western New England. There will be a few sfc
boundaries to monitor as the front stalled to our south the
past few days finally lifts north as a warm front Monday night
into Tuesday morning supporting overrunning showers with the
warm sector briefly spreading into our area. Then, strengthening
southwesterly winds (850-500hPa winds ranging 30-50kts) and
enhanced DCVA as the trough takes on a negative tilt will
support a second period of rain and embedded thunderstorms
focused around the incoming cold front. Given multiple forcing
mechanism at play both at the sfc and aloft, we maintained
widespread categorical POPS (greater than 75%) on Tuesday with
chances for thunderstorms also returning as humidity increases.
Given the higher cloud coverage, instability appears rather weak
but strong southwesterly flow through the column will advect
higher PWAT values (greater than 1.5" or about 1.5 standard
deviations above normal) northward and focused along the cold
front. Thus, heavy rain and potential localized flooding will
need to be monitored, especially given wet antecedent conditions
from the recent stretch of wet weather.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A stretch of generally quiet and benign weather ensues
Wednesday through Saturday with seasonable temperatures for mid-
June. The main hazard to note is potential breezy winds on
Thursday as a moisture starved cold front pushes through the
region Wed night and a conveyor belt of stronger westerly winds
sags southward in its wake over the Northeast. Probabilistic
guidance shows the 75 to 90th percentile wind gusts ranging 25
to 30mph especially down the Mohawk Valley into the Capital
District and western MA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00z Monday...Conditions turn VFR areawide this evening as a
frontal boundary slowly drifts south of the region into the Mid
Atlantic. Attention will then turn to early Sunday morning as
fog/mist is progged to develop across the Hudson River Valley into
the Berkshires after previous heavy rains and surface winds
becoming light/variable. MVFR/IFR conditions will result, and will
impact mainly KALB/KPOU/KPSF where winds will be near calm.
Confidence on fog/mist at KGFL is lower as a light north breeze will
be present. Expect fog/mist to burn off around 08/15z with
conditions turning VFR for the remainder of the period. Winds will
increase out of the east mid morning Sunday but remain light around
5 kts.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ032-033-
     038-042.
MA...None.
VT...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Sunday night for
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Speciale
NEAR TERM...Speciale/Speck
SHORT TERM...Speciale
LONG TERM...Speciale
AVIATION...Speck