155
FXUS61 KALY 181331
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
931 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Pleasant weather will continue through early next week
as high pressure remains situated across the region.
Temperatures throughout this extended dry period will follow a
gradual warming trend, reaching above normal values for mid to
late October. The next chance for rain showers comes for the
middle of next week with the anticipated passage of a cold
front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 931 AM EDT...Frost Advisories and Freeze Warnings have
expired this morning at 9 AM as temperatures have been steadily
warming this morning and the threat for frost and freeze
conditions are no longer expected.

Visible satellite imagery shows a large closed off upper level
low off the mid Atlantic coast. This system is slowly drifting
away from the eastern seaboard. Meanwhile, sky cover over
eastern New York and western New England is fairly clear at this
time, as strong surface high pressure (around 1035 mb) located
over western PA an western New York is allowing for plenty of
subsidence. With surface high pressure expected to remain in
control over the Northeast today, skies will remain nearly
completely clear, with just some very patchy cirrus in a few
spots.

After the chilly start, temperatures will be warming through the
morning and into the afternoon. Temps aloft are a little milder
than the past few days thanks to rising heights aloft, so highs
today will be a little warmer. Valley areas will be in the low
to middle 60s for this afternoon, with 50s over the high
terrain. Winds will be very light from a northerly direction
through the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Another clear night tonight will promote requisite radiational
cooling to drive widespread frost formation, though with
temperatures continuing to moderate, lows will be a few degrees
warmer than previous nights. Upper 20s are anticipated in the
Southwest Adirondacks while widespread low to mid 30s are likely
elsewhere. Additional Freeze Warnings/Frost Advisories will
likely be necessary in the Hudson Valley and Litchfield County
where the growing season is still ongoing through Monday.

Pleasant weather continues throughout the weekend as high
pressure remains situated across the region. The aforementioned
ridge looks to crest overhead Saturday before a disturbance
passes well to our north and flattens it Sunday. However, with
temperatures at the 850 mb level reaching 1.5 to nearly 2 STDEVs
above normal, temperatures will continue to rise at the surface.
High temperatures Saturday will reach widespread 60s with
isolated pockets of upper 50s across higher elevations and near
70 in the Mid-Hudson Valley. Sunday, highs will reach the mid/upper
60s to low 70s with isolated pockets of upper 50s to low 60s
above 1500 ft.

Saturday night will likely be the last day that Frost
Advisories could be needed as temperatures look to fall widely
to the mid to upper 30s. Sunday night, lows look to be fairly
mild, only falling to the low to mid 40s so frost should not be
a concern.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Anomalous ridging aloft (500 mb height anomalies of +1 to +2 STDEV)
will result in dry conditions persisting, along with an anomalously
warm air mass (850 mb temperature anomalies of +1 to +2 STDEV)
through early next week. Abundant sunshine and daytime mixing should
yield high temperatures well above normal Mon and Tue with highs in
the lower/mid 70s in valleys.

The upper level ridge is expected to break down on Wed as heights
aloft start to fall. However, one more warm/dry day should occur Wed
before a progressive short wave trough and cold front approaching
from the west move across the area Wed night into Thu. Will mention
mainly 20-50% of showers during this time, with the higher probs for
higher terrain areas north/west of Albany. A significant cool-down
will occur in wake of this system, with highs getting back down to
normal levels on Thu. It will also turn breezy as winds shift to the
NW with cold advection commencing.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12z Saturday...VFR conditions with SKC expected to prevail
through the 24 hour TAF period with high pressure in control and a
dry air mass in place.

Winds will become northerly around 5-7 kt by late morning.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gant
NEAR TERM...Frugis
SHORT TERM...Gant
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV