920
FXUS61 KALY 172329
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
629 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Lake effect and upslope snow showers will gradually taper off
this evening into tonight. High pressure builds east the region
on Tuesday, and remains in place through Thursday. This will
provide a stretch of dry and tranquil weather. The next chance
of widespread precipitation arrives on Friday associated with a
frontal system. Mainly rain is expected, with some snow possibly
mixing in across some mountain areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message:

- Lake effect/upslope snow showers gradually end tonight.

Discussion:

Cyclonic NW flow regime continues this evening into the
overnight hours. Lake effect/upslope snow showers have been
light this afternoon with any additional accumulations limited
to around 1" or less in parts of the W. Adirondacks, Mohawk
Valley and N. Catskills. Since the bulk of the accumulating snow
has ended with only light snowfall rates expected from now
through this evening, will cancel the Winter Storm Warning and
Winter Weather Advisory with this forecast issuance. Will
mention isolated to scattered snow showers with the greatest
coverage over the W. Adirondacks, W. Mohawk Valley into the N.
Catskills. NW winds will continue to gust 25-40 mph at times
through this evening, with decent pressure gradient still in
place. It will remain chilly, with lows tonight ranging from
around 20-30F and a persistent NW breeze making it feel even
colder.

Tue looks dry as surface high pressure nudges east into our
area, with increasing subsidence. There will likely still be
mostly cloudy skies over many higher terrain areas through much
of the day, with partly sunny skies expected in the N-S valleys.
It will still be breezy, but not as windy as Mon with peak
gusts mainly in the 20-30 mph range. Temperatures will remain
below normal with highs in the upper 20s to mid 30s in the
mountains and upper 30s to lower 40s in the valleys. High
pressure moves across N. NY Tue night bringing mostly clear and
cold conditions. A disturbance tracking east across the mid
Atlantic region may bring some clouds and a very low chance of a
few snow showers to far southern areas, but the majority of
guidance keeps precip to our south with this system.

A stronger area of high pressure builds in Wed into Wed night,
providing tranquil but cool conditions. Temperatures will remain
below normal, although winds will be much weaker than recent
days.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure gradually drifts east towards the New England
coast on Thu, providing continued dry conditions with slightly
milder temperatures (though still below normal). The next chance
of widespread precip arrives late Thu night into Fri,
associated with a progressive northern stream trough. The parent
cyclone and upper low are expected to track well north into
Canada, so this will be more of a milder system, with our area
getting into a pseudo warm sector on Fri. High temperatures may
reach or slightly exceed normal for the first time in a while
(> 50F in the Hudson Valley south of ALB). While chances for
measurable precip are high, overall amounts do not look heavy
with just 30-40% probs for > 0.50" rainfall. Most of the precip
should be rain, but could start as a period of snow in parts of
the Adirondacks and S. Greens especially if precip arrives
slightly earlier (Thu night). A few additional showers may occur
with the system`s cold front passage Fri night.

Cooler and mainly drier weather is expected for the upcoming
weekend into next Mon, although a fairly active (but moisture
starved) northern stream trough looks to be in place during this
time. Multiple short wave passages favors slight to low chance
PoPs mainly over higher terrain areas and breezy conditions.
Temperatures look to be near to slightly below normal through
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 00z Wed, lingering moisture will lead to plenty of
clouds overnight into Tuesday morning with occasional breaks.
Despite the clouds, VFR conditions are expected at KGFL and
KPOU. Occasional MVFR Cigs will be possible at KALB, especially
later tonight between 08Z-12Z/Tue. At KPSF, MVFR Cigs are
expected most of tonight into Tuesday morning before lifting to
VFR by afternoon. A few flurries will also be possible at KPSF
overnight. VFR conditions are expected in most areas Tuesday
afternoon except for lingering patches of MVFR Cigs across some
higher elevations.

West to northwest winds will persist overnight through most of
Tuesday at 8-15 KT with occasional gusts of 20-25 KT, strongest
and most frequent at KPSF. Winds will gradually decrease to 5-10
KT by late Tuesday afternoon.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely RA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...07
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...24