203
FXUS61 KALY 060653
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
153 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The weekend will open on a mainly dry day with partly to
to mostly cloudy conditions due a weak warm front moving north of
the region through the day bringing a few snow showers over the
western Adirondacks. A clipper-like low will increase clouds on
Sunday and bring some light snow to the region in the late
afternoon into early Monday morning. Another surge of frigid air
will impact the region Monday into Tuesday with well below
normal temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message:

 - Clipper-like low will bring a period of accumulating snow
   late Sun pm through Sun night. NBM probabilities for seeing >
   1" or more of snow are 40-60% for the southern Adirondacks,
   Mohawk Valley, Lake George Region and southern VT.

Discussion:

As of 153 AM EST...Low pressure continues to move east of the
Mid Atlantic States this morning, as a trough of low pressure is
moving across southeastern Canada and Hudson Bay. In the
southwest flow, a short-wave is moving through the Great Lakes
Region. A warm front to the system near Hudson Bay will move
through in the morning and this short-wave and a cold front will
bring a few light snow showers tapping Great Lakes moisture in
the afternoon into the evening with accums of a coating to less
than an inch for the western Dacks. A few flurries or snow
showers due to the system passing well south of Long Island may
impact NW CT and the I-84 corridor shortly before or just after
daybreak with little or no accumulation. The skies will be
partly to mostly cloudy with max temps below normal, but not as
cold as yesterday. Max temps were accepted by the NBM with
mid/upper 30s in the lower elevations and upper 20s to lower/mid
30s over the hills and mtns. The weak cold front moves through
tonight with only weak cold advection and a wind shift to the
west/northwest, as lows fall back into the teens and lower 20s.

High pressure briefly builds in early on Sunday from southern
Quebec, but the mid and upper level flow will remain
west/southwest aloft ahead of a clipper-like low approaching
from the Great Lakes Region. Clouds will thicken and lower into
the afternoon with low to mid level warm advection increasing
ahead of the low. The track continues to be further north than
the ensembles and deterministic guidance showed 24 hrs ago, but
light snow will still develop over the southern Dacks late in
the pm and extend into Sunday night. The synoptic forcing
remains the strongest over the northern zones in the night-time
period. Light snow should overspread most of the region and the
greatest risk for an inch or greater of snowfall will be over
the western Mohawk Valley, western Dacks and southern Greens.
Accumulations of a coating to less than an inch may occur over
the eastern Catskills, Greater Capital Region, Berkshires, the
north-central Taconics and the Lake George Saratoga Region. The
NBM probs are greatest for >1" of snow over the western Dacks
and the western Mohawk Valley and southern VT for the 24-hr
period ending 7 am Mon. Highs on Sunday will be in the mid 20s
to mid 30s over the forecast area. The snow should taper to
flurries before daybreak with lows in the single digits and
teens. It will be come breezy towards daybreak with west to
northwest winds of 5-15 mph.

In the wake of the system, another surge of arctic air will
moves across the region with below normal temps by 15-20
degrees. H850 temps will run -1 to -2 STDEVs below normal
according to NAEFS. Highs will be in the upper teens to mid 20s
in the major valleys and single digits to teens over the higher
terrain.  Brisk northwest winds 10-20 mph will generate wind
chills/"feels-like temps" during the daytime hours in the single
digits and teens and slightly colder values over the highest
terrain. High pressure builds in Mon night briefly with
initially mostly clear skies and light to calm winds with lows
falling zero to 5 below over the Adirondack Park and southern
Greens and single digits over the rest of the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The extended portion of the forecast remains very unsettled with
multiple northern stream disturbances impacting the region
through the mid week. Clouds increase quickly on Tue with the
sfc anticyclone moving off the New England Coast. The short-wave
and clipper-low will bring another round of light snow in the
late afternoon through Tue night. The best chance of a couple
inches of snow will be north and west of the Capital Region.
Highs on Tue will only be in the 20s. That system departs Tue
night, but another system will be digging in over the Great
Lakes Region and Midwest for Wed-Thu. The mid and upper level
flow amplifies over the East Coast.

The track of the Wed-Thu system may pass along or near the
eastern Great Lakes Region and the St Lawrence River Valley well
to the west of the region. Initially some snow may develop due
to wet bulb cooling, but the track may favor a snow to rain/snow
transition in some of the valley or eastern areas of the
forecast area. The timing of this system varies a little in the
ensembles and medium range guidance. Highs may get closer to
normal readings for the valley areas in the mid 30s to around
40F and upper 20s to lower/mid 30s over the higher terrain.
Light to moderate snow accums may occur from the Capital Region
north and west before a transition to rain. The wave passing to
north and east Wed night into Thu with the cold front moving
through. Lows fall back into the 20s with some teens over the
Adirondack Park. Highs on Thu will still run about 5-10 degrees
below normal.

Yet another system will move northeast from the Ohio Valley
early Thu night towards the Northeast Thu night-Fri. This
system may bring a period of snow or mixed pcpn of rain/snow Thu
night into Fri with temps running below normal. However, a lot
of uncertainty continues in the medium range guidance and
ensembles on the track and evolution of this storm.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06z Sunday...A passing disturbance and weak southerly flow
will keep low clouds in place at the terminals to start the period.
MVFR conditions are primarily expected, though a brief period of IFR
conditions will be possible in the vicinity of KPSF. In addition to
the clouds, a brief period of light snow will accompany the system,
and will mainly impact KPOU. This potential continues to be
addressed with a TEMPO group. Any snow that accumulates will be a
dusting to a few tenths. Conditions will improve back to VFR for all
terminals once the system departs by midday, and will remain this
way through the remainder of the period. Winds will be light and
variable with sustained speeds remaining under 10 kt.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHSN...SN.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely RA...SN.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...15
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...17