126
FXUS61 KALY 010628
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
228 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cooler air mass will be over eastern New York and
western New England today into tonight, as high pressure builds
in from south central Quebec. Areas of frost tonight will occur
outside the immediate Capital District and mid Hudson Valley.
High pressure will drift east of the New England Coast Thursday
into Friday with above normal temperatures returning for the
weekend with continued dry weather for early October.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Message:

- Frost Advisories and Freeze Warnings Thu morning outside the
  Capital District and the mid Hudson Valley, southern Taconics
  and NW CT for areas to a widespread frost.

Discussion:

As of 228 AM EDT...October 1st has arrived with a chilly
autumnal air mass settling in across the region. The growing
season has ended for the southern Adirondacks that include
northern Herkimer, Hamilton and northern Warren Counties today.
However, a strong 1032 hPa sfc anticylone will ridge southward
from Quebec across the region today thru tonight. PWATs will run
1 to 2 STDEVs below normal with the dry air mass based on the
latest NAEFS with H850 temps slightly below normal in the +3C to
+6C range. A low-level northerly flow will continue with
sustained winds 5-15 mph with some gusts 20-25 mph channeling
down the Champlain Valley into the Hudson River Valley. The sfc
anticyclone will yield mostly sunny skies and cooler than normal
temps with highs in the lower to mid 60s in the valleys and 50s
to around 60F over the hills and mtns

The sfc anticyclone will build southward with ideal radiational
cooling conditions with clear skies and light to calm winds
tonight. The ideal radiational cooling conditions will allow
temps to fall into the upper 20s to upper 30s. The 10-25th
percentile of the NBM was used and a cooler solution. We
converted the Freeze Watch to a Freeze Warning for the eastern
Catskills of western Ulster and western Greene Counties, as well
as Schoharie County with temps falling at or below 32F. Less
confident on the coverage in western Albany and western
Schenectady counties and we issued a Frost Advisory for areas of
frost 33-36F. We also hoisted a Frost Advisory for all of
southern VT, the Berkshires of MA, northern and central
Taconics, western-central Mohawk and the Lake George Northern
Saratoga Region. The coverage was not as great in the immediate
Capital District/mid Hudson Valley/southern Taconics and NW CT
for areas of frost (perhaps patchy frost), so no headlines as of
yet. If confidence increases for cooler/colder temps in the
33-36F range, then the frost headlines may be expanded. Frost
may damage or completely destroy sensitive plants, so covering
them up or bringing them inside is advised.

After a frosty morning, expect temps to rebound into the 50s and
60s again with lots of sunshine, as the sfc high settles over
NY and New England with light winds and continued dry
conditions. Radiative cooling will occur again Thu night/Fri
morning and some more frost advisories may be needed for
portions of the forecast area (i.e. southern VT, Berkshires,
eastern Catskills, etc.) once again, as temps fall into the 30s
to around 40F in a few spots. The sfc high drifts south of
southern New England with a modification slightly of the air
mass on Friday with temps trending near to slightly above normal
with highs in the 60s to lower 70s with light south/southeast
winds 5-10 mph and abundant sunshine.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The extended forecast rolls on close to the latest NBM guidance
with dry weather through the weekend and above normal temps
returning. The sfc anticylone builds in from the Mid Atlantic
Region and south of Long Island with an influx of milder air for
early Oct. Mid and upper level heights increase across the
region with H850 temps 1 to 2 STDEVs above normal both days
based on the latest NAEFS/GEFS guidance. The last cool night
with temps will be Fri night with lows in the 40s, but expect
max temps Sat to reach in the mid and upper 70s in the lower
elevations and upper 60s to mid 70s over the higher terrain. The
high temps Sun into Mon will be 10-15 degrees above normal with
widespread 70s with some lower 80s in the valleys. Some
radiational cooling will occur at night, but temps will be mild.
The subsidence with the ridge will yield mostly clear skies.

The last dry day looks like Mon, as the ridge gradually breaks
down with a cold front approaching from the west Mon night into
Tue. Isolated to scattered showers will be possible on Tue with
a prefrontal disturbance with the front slowly pushing south and
east through the mid week. The higher chances of rainfall 25-40
percent may not be until Wed. Temps will finish the extended
above normal with a gradual cool down closer to normal readings
by the mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06z Thursday...VFR flying conditions expected through
the entire TAF period. Northerly winds remain sustained between
5-10 kt through 13-15z this morning before increasing to around
8-12 kt with gusts up to 15-20 kt. Wind gusts subside by early
evening (22-23 UTC) with sustained winds around 5-8kts gradually
weakening through the end of the TAF cycle.

Outlook...

Thursday Night to Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The last soaking rainfall was Tue to Thu last week with much of
the region getting 2 to 5 inches of rainfall with a minimum of
0.50 to 1.25" over the western Adirondacks, portions of the
southern Taconics and NW CT. The rainfall helped improve the
Keetch Byram Drought Indices (KBDI) according to the NYS Mesonet
with values under 200 across a large portion of eastern NY.
The last few days have been dry, which has allowed for some
recovery since this rainfall especially near the Mid Hudson
Valley, southeast Catskills and western Adirondacks. However,
input from the NYS DEC Division of Forest Protection suggested
that the shorter days and overnight high RH has been slowing the
drying.

A drier and cooler air mass continues to build in today. RH
values will fall into the 30 to 40 percent range with northerly
winds 5 to 15 mph with a few gusts 20 to 25 mph especially in
the Hudson River Valley. An excellent RH recovery (90 to 100
percent) with calm winds will occur tonight with areas to a
widespread frost outside the Capital District and mid Hudson
Valley. Warmer and more humid weather will return for Friday
into the weekend with mainly light winds, although there is no
potential for any widespread rainfall until Tue or Wed next
week.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Thursday for
     NYZ038>041-043-048-051-054-061-082>084.
     Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Thursday for
     NYZ047-058-063.
MA...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Thursday for
     MAZ001-025.
VT...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Thursday for
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...Speciale
FIRE WEATHER...Frugis/Wasula