764
FXUS61 KALY 260627
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
227 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring fair and warm conditions today with
lower humidity levels. An approaching warm front will bring
showers and thunderstorms late tonight into Sunday. Hot and
humid conditions then return for Monday and Tuesday, with
increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms by midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Messages:

* Showers/thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall late tonight
  into Sunday.

* Hot and humid conditions return early next week with a medium
  chance (30%-60%) of feels like temperatures over 95 on Monday
  and Tuesday.

As of 225 AM EDT, patchy clouds continue to slowly erode from
NE to SW across the eastern Catskills/Helderbergs, with mainly
clear skies elsewhere. Patchy fog was forming across portions of
the southern Adirondacks and western New England where skies
remain clear and temp/dewpoint spreads are nearing zero. Current
temps are in the mid/upper 50s across the southern Adirondacks
and some higher elevations across western New England, with 60s
to lower 70s elsewhere.

Warm temperatures expected today but with lower humidity levels
compared to recent days as dewpoints drop into the mid 50s to
lower 60s by afternoon. Morning sunshine will give way to
patches of mid level clouds this afternoon.

Approaching warm front and mid level shortwave will bring
showers and thunderstorms to the region tonight, mainly after
midnight. Best forcing looks to be across the SW Adirondacks and
Mohawk Valley region toward daybreak, and with some weak
elevated instability with Showalter Indices dropping to 0 to -2C
along with PWAT`s increasing to nearly 2", locally heavy
rainfall will be possible in these areas and perhaps spreading
east into the Lake George/Saratoga region around daybreak.

Clusters of showers/thunderstorms should be ongoing Sunday
morning for many areas near and especially north of I-90, with a
gradual expansion south and east by mid morning. Locally heavy
rainfall looks to be the main attribute with rainfall rates
possibly approaching 1"/hour. Will have to watch for potential
training and/or backbuilding of heavier rain cores which could
lead to ponding of water in some urban/poor drainage areas, and
perhaps isolated flash flooding in any areas where repeated
downpours occur.

Main shortwave and associated forcing shifts east of the region
during the afternoon. However, remnant differential heating
boundary and mid level northwest flow could allow
isolated/scattered thunderstorms to redevelop in the afternoon
should some breaks in the clouds develop. At this time, best
potential for additional convection looks to be near or south of
I-90 and primarily west of I-87. Should convection redevelop,
there could be enough shear with veering wind profile for some
discrete cells to develop. Also, heavy rain will remain a threat
should any additional training/backbuilding cells occur.
Afternoon high temps should reach the upper 70s to lower 80s,
warmest in any areas where some afternoon sunshine develops.
Any lingering showers/storms taper off Sunday evening.

Hot and humid conditions then return for Monday into Tuesday,
with NBM probs for MaxT>95 10-30% within the Hudson River Valley
(greatest across mid Hudson Valley on Tuesday), and probs for
dewpoints >72 30-60%+ each afternoon. Medium chances (30-60%) for
heat indices reaching 95+ within large portions of the Hudson
and Mohawk River Valleys each day, with heat advisories
potentially being issued as we get closer in time. A weak cold
front approaching from the northwest could bring
isolated/scattered thunderstorms for Tuesday afternoon/evening.

Stronger cold frontal passage and approaching upper level trough
bring additional shower/thunderstorm chances for Wednesday-
Thursday, followed by fair weather by Friday. It will also
become cooler and less humid by Friday, with highs mainly in the
70s and overnight lows in the 50s for most areas with some 40s
across the southern Adirondacks.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06z/Sun...VFR conditions are expected for much of the
upcoming TAF period. The exception would be for any patchy fog until
12z/Sat at KGFL/KPSF where some intermittent IFR/LIFR vsbys could
occur. Some showers and thunderstorms will begin to approach the TAF
sites near or shortly after 06z/Sun as an upper level disturbance
and warm front approach from the west. Light to calm winds tonight
will become south to southwesterly on Saturday at 4-8 kt.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TH/KL
DISCUSSION...KL
AVIATION...Rathbun