754
FXUS61 KALY 020712
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
212 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A strengthening coastal storm will bring a widespread moderate
to heavy snowfall across the region today through this evening.
Dry conditions expected late tonight through Wednesday. An
Arctic cold front will then move across the area late Wednesday
night into Thursday, bringing snow showers and a few snow
squalls. In wake of the cold front, a bitterly cold air mass
will move in Thursday night into Friday with dry conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Messages:

- Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories remain in
  effect for most of eastern New York and western New England
  from 7 AM today through 1 AM Wednesday.

- Moderate to heavy snowfall rates of 0.5" to 1" per hour are
  expected from mid/late this morning through late
  afternoon/early evening. This will especially affect the
  afternoon commute.

Discussion:

The first widespread winter storm of the season is on track to
begin with snow developing north/west of Albany in the pre-dawn
hours then spreading south/east across the rest of the area from
around sunrise into the mid morning. Only change to headlines
from yesterday is expanding the Winter Storm Warning to include
all of Fulton County where southerly upslope flow into the
afternoon will result in enhanced snowfall(6-9") relative to the
rest of the Mohawk Valley and S. Adirondacks(5-7").

Temperatures dropped significantly during the first half of
tonight, so plenty of cold air is in place at the onset of the
event this morning. As a result, dewpoint depressions are also
less so snow should develop fairly quickly without taking too
much time to saturate the low levels. Ensemble and deterministic
guidance have locked in to the storm track, with just some
minor differences. The surface cyclone is forecast to deepen is
it tracks NE from coastal N. Carolina this morning to just
south/east of Cape Cod this evening. This is a decent track for
moderate/heavy snow across much of our area. Overall residence
time will be limited though due to the progressive movement of
the system. However, there is potential for mesoscale banding,
with the synoptic pattern(open wave aloft and deepening cyclone
S/E of Albany off the coast) resembling a laterally quasi-
stationary band based on past CSTAR research. So as the forcing
increases, will have to watch for locally enhanced snowfall
rates. Anticipating generally 0.5-1.0"/hour rates, but higher
1-2"/hour rates could occur on the north/west of the deepening
cyclone coinciding with when increasing 850-700 mb F-Gen occurs
late this morning through this afternoon. The most likely
location of banding looks to be across S. VT and possibly into
the Berkshires. This is where highest totals are expected
(especially 9- 12" in the S. Greens). Borderline accumulations
(6-9") are expected in the rest of the Warning area, with no
other changes to the Warnings/Advisories except for the Warning
expansion in Fulton County. Generally 2-6" snow in the Advisory
area with the lowest amounts occurring where rain mixes in
(Dutchess/N. Litchfield).

In terms of precip type, all snow is expected for most of the
area. However, as the cyclone deepens east of the mid Atlantic
coast, temperatures warm into the mid 30s with snow mixing with
then changing to rain across central/southern Dutchess and
Litchfield counties this afternoon. The rain snow line could get
as far north as far S. Berkshire/Columbia counties later this
afternoon. NBM looked too far north with the mix line, so made
adjustments to account for colder/snowier scenario north of
Dutchess/Litchfield. Snow consistency should be generally on the
drier side(higher snow- liquid ratios) except near the
rain/snow line where SLRs will be lower.

Precip will generally taper off from west to east this evening
but should still be occurring through the evening commute
especially from the Hudson Valley east. Snow could linger east
of the Hudson Valley through much of the evening, but should end
by midnight. As the storm pulls away from the coast overnight,
NW flow will bring chilly temperatures with lows in the 10s to
around 20 degrees.

On Wed, surface ridging extending NE from high pressure
centered over the mid Atlantic region will bring tranquil but
cool conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Message:

- High confidence in below normal temperatures continuing
  through early next week.

Discussion:

Chances for snow showers increase from NW to SE late Wed night
into Thu associated with an Arctic cold front approaching from
the Great Lakes and SE Canada. Greatest likelihood of measurable
snow will be across favored westerly upslope areas to the west
of the Hudson Valley. There is a signal for snow squall
potential along the Arctic front, especially in the Adirondacks
Thu A.M. where the snow showers will be more widespread. Even
isolated snow squalls could occur farther SE across the rest of
the area Thu P.M. Will continue to monitor potential, but at
this time it appears the squalls should not affect most of the
major highways. Temperatures will drop significantly behind the
Arctic front late Thu into Thu night. Low temperatures will
easily be the coldest of the season so far, with widespread 0 to
-5F in most of the higher terrain to single digits in lower
elevations. With high pressure building in during the night,
winds should diminish. So at this time feels-like temperatures
are not expected to meet Cold Advisory criteria.

The remainder of the long term will feature below normal
temperatures, with just slight to low chance for snow over the
weekend. The storm track remains fairly active, but it appears
the bulk of snow from any systems look to remain south of our
area. Will continue to monitor trends as a slight northerly
shift in the storm track would bring snow more into play. High
pressure is then expected to build back in early next week with
dry conditions, but with continued cold temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06z Wednesday...VFR conditions at all terminals should
prevail through around daybreak this morning, then snow
overspreads the area from the west. Once snow begins, vsbys
quickly drop to IFR, with cigs trending down to MVFR and
eventually IFR by mid-morning. Snow continues through the day,
possibly moderate to heavy at times especially late this morning
through mid to late afternoon. Expecting prevailing IFR to LIFR
vsbys and cigs through at least this evening. One challenge is
if/when POU will see a transition from snow to rain tomorrow
afternoon or evening. Nevertheless, even if the changeover to
rain occurs earlier than expected POU should still see IFR cigs
and vsbys tomorrow afternoon and evening. Main changes to the
previous TAFs were minor adjustments to the start time of the
snow and to end the heavy snow 1-2 hrs earlier than in the
previous TAFs. The storm should begin to pull away after 00z
tomorrow, with flying conditions improving back to MVFR and
possibly even VFR by the very end of the TAF valid period. There
remains some uncertainty in just how long snow showers will
linger tomorrow evening, especially around ALB and PSF, so will
work to refine this with subsequent TAF issuances. ALB/GFL/PSF
should see on the order of 5-9" of snow with 2-4" at POU.

Winds will be generally calm through the rest of the night,
becoming light and variable this morning after sunrise before
increasing to 5- 10 kt from the N/NE this afternoon and early
evening. After sunset, winds switch more to the N/NW, still at
5-10 kt but with gusts of 15- 18kt, especially at ALB/PSF/POU,
lasting through the end of the TAF valid period.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHSN.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 1 AM EST
     Wednesday for CTZ001.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 1 AM EST
     Wednesday for NYZ032-033-038-040-042-043-047-060-061-
     064>066.
     Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM this morning to 1 AM EST
     Wednesday for NYZ039-041-048>054-058-059-063-082>084.
MA...Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM this morning to 1 AM EST
     Wednesday for MAZ001-025.
VT...Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM this morning to 1 AM EST
     Wednesday for VTZ013>015.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...07
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...35