023
FXUS61 KALY 060011
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
811 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Threat for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
continues through this evening. More widespread showers and
thunderstorms develop Friday as a cold front stalls overhead.
While temperatures will not be quite as warm, humidity remains
high so storms will be capable of heavy downpours as well. Some
storms, especially in western New England, may becomes severe
producing damaging winds.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Key Messages:

 -Marginal risk (Outlook Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms
  into this evening, with the main threat being damaging wind
  gusts. Coverage of storms expected to be isolated to
  scattered, and mainly from the Capital District north and west.

Discussion:
.UPDATE...Isolated T-storms developing in southern Rensselaer
county along the leading edge of a moisture/wind shift boundary
draped across the central part of the area. These storms should
remain below severe levels. However, we are monitoring a cluster
of organized T-storms in central NY tracking east. The storms
may hold together as they move into eastern NY later this
evening, although instability will start to wane. Best
instability is across areas south of Albany with 500-1000 J/Kg
of MLCAPE. The storms may track along the instability gradient
along the leading edge of the aforementioned front. The
effective shear is also slightly stronger at 25-30 kt, so some
organized and borderline severe storms are still possible. Will
continue to monitor trends.

.PREV DISCUSSION[0426]...A hot and muggy afternoon continues
across eastern NY and western New England as temperatures
continue to climb into the mid to upper 80s with low 90s in the
mid-Hudson Valley. Given dew points in the 60s, the heat index
values or "feel- like" temperatures are uncomfortably in the low
90s for much of the Hudson and even parts of the Mohawk Valley.
The southern/western Adirondacks are not quite as warm given
more diurnal clouds. Latest satellite imagery and RAP analysis
shows our incoming cold front positioned well to our west over
southern Canada into the Ohio Valley with weak ridging still
over most of eastern NY into western New England. However, as
the front gradually approaches, the ridge is beginning to
flatten mainly north and west of the Capital District with a few
showers trying to percolate in response to the falling heights.
However, the mid- level cap is still strong and preventing
updraft growth. Latest CAMs are not overly enthused on the
coverage of convection even later this afternoon with generally
isolated to widely scattered storms developing after 4PM mainly
in the western/southern Adirondack, western Mohawk Valley and
Upper Hudson Valley. Given surface-based CAPE values on the
latest SPC mesoscale analysis ranging 1 - 2k J/kg and effective
shear values 25-30kts, updrafts could grow upscale in these
areas once the cap erodes away resulting in strong to locally
severe storms. With plenty of mid-level dry air as seen on the
12 UTC ALY sounding and forecast soundings, DCAPE values are
also quite high today nearing 1000 J/kg so damaging winds are
the primary hazard from any severe storms and SPC continues its
Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for much of the area with a Slight
Risk (level 2 of 5) introduced into southwest Mohawk Valley and
northern/eastern Catskills.

Storm activity diminishes with the loss of daytime heating this
evening but with the front continuing to progress eastward, we
maintained chance POPs north and west of the Capital District.
However, the severe threat diminishes overnight. Otherwise, it
remains muggy and warm tonight with increased cloud coverage and
still some showers/isolated storms around. Only expecting
overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message:

- Greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms tomorrow with
  storms capable of producing heavy downpours resulting in
  isolated instances of flash flooding and/or ponding of water
  in low-lying and urban areas, especially if storms repeatedly
  impact an area. WPC maintains its Marginal Risk (level 1 to
  4) in the Excessive Rainfall Outlook.

- Storms will also be capable of becoming locally strong to
  severe with damaging winds the primary hazard. SPC maintains
  is marginal risk for severe weather (level 1 to 5) across
  eastern NY and southern VT with a slight risk (level 2 to 5)
  in western MA and Litchfield County, CT.

Discussion:

Our front stalls across the region tomorrow with the conveyor
belt of stronger southwesterly winds ranging 25-35kts overhead.
Once daytime heating kicks in by mid to late morning, showers
and thunderstorms look to develop along the thermal/moisture
gradient positioned northeast to southwest from southern VT,
through the Capital District into the eastern Catskills. As a
few embedded shortwaves within the faster flow aloft track along
the front, guidance continues to show a wave of low pressure
riding along the boundary tomorrow afternoon producing more
widespread areas of rain and embedded thunderstorms. Given the
increased coverage of precipitation and cloud coverage, overall
instability will be lower near and north/west of Albany.
However, areas from the mid-Hudson Valley into western MA and NW
CT will remain ahead of the front in the more unstable air mass
with the HREF showing 30 - 40% of SBCAPE values exceeding 2000
J/kg and higher 0-6km shear values reaching 20 - 35kts. Forecast
soundings show more of a tall skinny cape sounding with
freezing heights over 10kft and PWAT values around 1.50" so our
primary concern is for potential flooding given the potential
for repeated rounds of convection and rain resulting in poor
drainage/urban flooding or even isolated flash flooding should
storms train over an area. We collaborated with WPC who
considered an upgrade to a slight risk; however, given 3-hrly
HREF probability match mean values only range 0.5 - 1.50" with
isolated values up to 2" and 3-hrly FFG values sit between 2.50
- 3", we sided against an upgrade. We continue to message the
  marginal risk (level 1 of 5) and will monitor potential
  flooding/hydro issues as convection develops. A secondary
  concern is for storms to become severe with widespread
  marginal risk (level 1 of 5) across eastern NY with a slight
  risk introduced in western New England where SPC upgraded to a
  slight risk (level 2 of 5) in collaboration with BOX.
  Damaging winds will be the primary hazard from any storms
  especially should isolated bowing segments develop as shear
  vectors remain oriented parallel to the boundary supporting
  more of a linear storm mode. Otherwise, not nearly as hot
  tomorrow with daytime highs in the 70s to around 80 but dew
  points uncomfortable in the 60s maintaining muggy conditions.


Areas of rain continues into the evening as waves of low
pressure ride along and lift the boundary slightly northward. We
maintained likely POPs (50 - 60% chance) overnight along the
stalled front with dew points staying elevating supporting
muggy conditions.

The front gradually slides into western New England Saturday as
an upper level trough in southern Canada pushes eastward.
Additional areas of rain and isolated thunderstorms are possible
along the front again once we reach peak heating but as the
front shift eastward, the shower/storms will shift along with
it. SPC only has our area in "general thunder" as SB CAPE values
along and ahead of the front remain around 1000 J/kg.
Therefore, we trend likely POPs east through the day into
western New England with POPs trending downwards in eastern NY.
As winds shift to the west in the wake of the front, westerly
winds will advect in a drier air mass with winds even turning
slightly breezy as high pressure builds eastward. This will bring
much more comfortable conditions through the day as skies clear
and humidity values fall. It will be much more comfortable
Saturday night thanks to clearing skies and lowering humidity
values with overnight lows falling into the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A very nice end to the weekend is in store for us on Sunday as
high pressure and dry air mass take control of the Northeast
with high temperatures in the 70s and comfortable humidity
values. Clouds increase Sunday night into Monday as our front
from Saturday lifts northward as a warm front. Guidance has
trended drier for Sun night through Monday and suggest most
showers remain mainly north/west of the Capital District as our
high builds into northern New England and keeps a hold over the
rest of the area. Otherwise, we remain comfortable on Monday in
the 70s as the true warmer and more humid air mass stays to our
south. However, this does not last long and the sfc warm front
finally lifts northward Monday night with deeper southwest flow
ensuing by Tuesday. This will ushering in higher humidity values
with chances for shower/storms also increasing as a more
amplified upper level trough tracks through southern Canada and
a cold front approaches from the west. Shear values will
increase so will need to monitor the potential for organized
convection depending on how strong instability values become. We
then trend drier Wednesday into Thursday as the trough pushes
through and subsidence in its wake builds into the Northeast.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 00z Saturday...Any isolated TSRA through early this
evening have remained away from the TAF sites. However, numerous
SHRA/TSRA upstream in central NY may hold together enough
possibly make it near KALB, so have included mention of PROB30
from 02z-06z. This activity is not expected to affect other
sites, but will amend if necessary due to any isolated
convection that develops tonight. Overall mid level clouds will
be increasing overnight, but there could be enough breaks for
possible brief intervals of fog at KGFL/KPSF. Will only mention
MVFR vsby at this time due to low confidence of occurrence.
Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail through Friday morning. A
cold front will bring more widespread SHRA with SCT TSRA during
the afternoon to early evening Friday, with occasional MVFR
conditions likely and possible brief IFR within any persistent
downpours. Winds will variable at generally less than 5 kt,
except for stronger winds in and near TSRA.

Outlook...

Friday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ001-013.
NY...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ063>066.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Speciale
NEAR TERM...JPV/Speciale
SHORT TERM...Speciale
LONG TERM...Speciale
AVIATION...JPV