538
FXUS61 KALY 211116
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
616 AM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system to our north brings low chances for precipitation
in the western Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley today. Otherwise, dry
conditions continue today. For tonight into tomorrow morning, a
weather system to our south continues to trend further southward for
low chances of precipitation across the Mid-Hudson Valley, southern
Taconics, and Litchfield Hills. Dry conditions are in store for
Saturday. Sunday is looking to be unsettled for the western
Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley region as a weather system arrives
from the north. A gradual warming trend for next week with chances
for precipitation returning Tuesday into Thanksgiving.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
For this morning...Cold temperatures start the day with temps
ranging in the teens and 20s. Clouds continue to increase this
morning with dry conditions in store. Very low chances (less than
15%) for a light snow shower in portions of the western Adirondacks
and Mohawk Valley between 5 AM and 8 AM, otherwise dry conditions
continue.

For this afternoon and tonight...An approaching weather system
from the northwest brings low chances (15-30%) to the western
Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley through the early evening hours.
Then dry conditions return as this system heads northward.
Elsewhere, dry conditions are in store for today with mostly
cloudy skies. For late tonight into the very early morning hours
tomorrow, low chances (15-25%) for light rain showers across
the Mid-Hudson Valley, southern Taconics, and Litchfield Hills
as a weather system moves through to our south. latest high
resolution model guidances and National Blend of Model data
(NBM) continues to trend further southward for accumulating
precipitation amounts. Very light amounts of a trace to 0.05
inches across the Mid-Hudson Valley, southern Taconics, and
Litchfield Hills could occur but latest probabilities are very
low as the trend of the weather system is to stay just to our
south and move through quickly. Dry conditions are in store by
daybreak for Saturday morning.

Dry conditions are in store for a pleasant, but chilly
Saturday. As a cold airmass continues overhead, highs range in
the low 30s to 40s. Low temperatures range in the teens and 20s.
Once the sun sets, temperatures fall quickly as skies are
mostly clear but should hover in the 20s as clouds increase for
Sunday morning.

For Sunday, low to medium chances (15-50%) for light snow showers in
the western Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley as a weather system
arrives from the northwest. This weather system stays just to our
north where the most favorable locations to see a light dusting to a
half of an inch of snowfall is in the western Adirondacks. For the
Mohawk Valley, temperatures could stay cold enough for snow showers
during the morning hours but as we head into Sunday afternoon with
temperatures warming above freezing, snow showers transition over to
light rain showers. At this forecast period for the Mohawk Valley,
chances for these showers are between 15-30% as the weather system
is favored by the latest forecast models to stay to our north. By
Sunday night, the weather system heads further northward and dry
conditions return for Sunday night into Monday morning. Elsewhere
across eastern New York and western New England, dry conditions
continue for Sunday with highs in the 30s and 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Messages:

    - Gradual warming trend Monday into Wednesday with highs by
      Wednesday in the 40s and 50s.

    - Chances for precipitation increase Tuesday into Wednesday
      with an unsettled weather pattern.

Discussion:

Monday: A cold seasonal morning to start the day with
temperatures in the 20s and low 30s. Dry conditions in store
for the start of the work week as upper level ridging moves
through. Highs range in the upper 30s to low 50s.

Tuesday through Wednesday: Cold overnight low temperatures into
Tuesday morning with lows in the 20s and low 30s. Latest
ensemble cluster analysis members are in good agreement for an
upper level trough to dig across the Great Lakes region into New
York for Tuesday into Wednesday as the upper level ridge heads
eastward Tuesday afternoon. Latest forecast supports that
Tuesday morning starts out dry, with chances for rain showers
increasing during the afternoon hours from 15 to 50%.
Temperatures remain above freezing through the daytime across
eastern New York and western New England with highs in the 40s
and low 50s for the primary precipitation type to be rain. As we
head into Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, high terrain
locations could see a mix of rain/snow as temperatures fluctuate
between 30 and 34 degrees. Otherwise, temperatures remain above
freezing for the overnight hours and gradually warm into the
40s and 50s for Wednesday as warmer air from the south fills in.
Chances for light precipitation continue to range between
40-60% for Wednesday for a dreary day in store. A cold front
moves through Wednesday night bringing a return to seasonal
temperatures.

Thanksgiving: The current forecast supports lingering low chances
for rain shower activity through the morning hours with drier
conditions returning from south to north across eastern New York and
western New England during the afternoon and evening hours. As the
upper level trough heads northeast on Thursday, breezy conditions
are favored for the afternoon hours, especially in valley locations.
High temperatures range in the 30s for high terrain locations to the
upper 40s and low 50s in valley locations.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IR satellite imagery shows a large area of stratus clouds
moving west to east across the region in advance of an
approaching frontal boundary. Upstream satellite imagery shows
these clouds extends west all way across Upstate New York and
towards the eastern Great Lakes. Based on these satellite trends
and model soundings, will be expecting these stratus clouds to
persist through much of the day. Latest surface observations
shows ceilings range between 2000 and 3500 ft, keeping flying
conditions borderline MVFR/VFR. This looks to continue through
much of the day, so will keep mainly MVFR in the TAFs for most
sites, although will allow for some periods of low end VFR at
KALB. After calm winds early today, southerly winds will be 5
to 10 kts for the mid morning through afternoon hours. At this
point, will mention a VCSH at KGFL, but none of the other sites,
as any brief showers will be fairly isolated and have little to
impact on visibility.

Behind the cold front, winds will switch to the west for tonight
around 5 kts or so. Some drier air will start working into the
area, so there may be some improvement in ceilings for all
sites, although KPSF may still continue to be MVFR even through
the overnight hours. Some mid level clouds will also spread
towards southern areas by the late night hours as well, although
any precip should stay south of the area.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...27