071
FXUS61 KALY 200217
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
917 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure will allow for dry and near seasonable
weather through tomorrow. A pair of disturbances will bring the
next chance for some rain showers on Friday into Friday night.
Mainly dry weather returns this weekend into early next week
with continued near seasonable temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Update 916 pm EST...Low temps have fallen close to forecasted
values over the Adirondack Park. We lowered mins over northern
Herkimer/Hamilton 3-4 degrees into the mid teens, but some mid
and high clouds are on the increase across w-central NY with a
mid-level disturbance, as high pressure builds in from the north
and west. Lows falling into the teens and lower 20s are on
track...which are about 10 degrees below normal for mid-Nov. The
skies will become partly cloudy north and west of the mid
Hudson Valley.

Previous short term...

Surface high pressure will continue to build over the region
through tonight and begin to drift to the east on Thursday.
This will result in partly to mostly clear and dry weather
through Thursday night. Despite some thin high clouds tonight,
ideal radiational cooling conditions should be in place which
will allow temperatures to fall back into the teens to mid-20s.
Temperatures will rebound into the 40s on Thursday except mid to
upper 30s across the higher elevations.

The next chance for precipitation will be on Friday. A northern
stream system over Quebec will bring a cold front across the
region. In addition, a southern stream shortwave and developing
surface low should pass eastward across the mid-Atlantic. While
the northern stream system will lack moisture, it should be
able to pick up enough over the Great Lakes to bring some rain
showers to areas especially north and west of Albany. The track
of the southern stream system (which will contain more moisture)
will depend on how far north rainfall arrives for the rest of
the area. Scenarios could include rain as far north as Albany
or the rain shield could completely remain to the south of our
CWA. Even if rain were to occur, it would not result in any
hydrologic concerns. High temperatures on Friday will reach the
40s to lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The combination surface low and cold front will depart the
region to the east early on Saturday as high pressure returns
for the upcoming weekend. This will result in a mainly dry
weekend with continued near seasonable temperatures. Any lake-
effect or upslope showers on Saturday will be short lived as the
high quickly builds in. Aside from a few rain/snow showers with
a passing weak disturbance on Monday, mostly dry weather
continues into early next week.

Ensemble guidance continues to support the potential for a more
widespread precipitation event later Tuesday into Wednesday of
next week. An upper level low over the Southwest U.S. this
weekend is expected to slowly open into a wave and track across
the CONUS toward the Great Lakes ahead of another upper level
trough in its wake. Global model ensemble mean support a
surface low passing to our west over the Great Lakes. Such a
track would support precipitation type as mainly rain. However,
with a surface high positioned to the east ahead of this system,
enough cold air may remain in place for precipitation to start
out as snow or a wintry mix, mainly for portions of the
Adirondacks and southern Vermont, before changing to rain.
Temperatures, timing and track of the surface low will depend on
how much of a wintry mix does occur. Ahead of this system,
temperatures should reach the 40s to lower 50s for most areas.
In the wake of this system, colder air looks to gradually return
to the area for the Thanksgiving holiday as an upper level
trough returns to the eastern CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 00Z/Fri, VFR conditions the entire TAF cycle for
KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF with some high clouds increasing after
06Z/Thu and then some mid level clouds after 12Z/Thu especially
KALB/KPSF north/northeast. The mid and high level clouds will
thin in the late afternoon. Winds will become calm early
tonight and then be light from the south/southeast at 6 KT or
less in the late morning through the afternoon

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Saturday to Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night to Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance
of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...33
SHORT TERM...15/33
LONG TERM...33
AVIATION...15