


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
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710 FXUS61 KALY 171321 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 921 AM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will bring fair weather through Saturday, with cool temperatures today warming to seasonable levels on Saturday. A cold front approaching from the west will bring increasing clouds Sunday, with showers developing Sunday night and continuing into Monday. Temperatures will be above normal ahead of the front on Sunday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... .Update...As of 9:20 AM EDT...Frost advisory and freeze warning have been cancelled, as temperatures have risen well into the 30s and 40s for areas where the headlines were in effect. Otherwise, previous forecast remains in great shape with more details below... .Previous...After the chilly start, expect sunshine to mix with high clouds at times today. Winds will be lighter than Thursday, though could still gust up to 20-25 mph through early afternoon across portions of western New England and the Hudson River Valley from Albany southward to the mid Hudson Valley. Expect afternoon high temps to reach the mid/upper 50s within valley areas, and upper 40s/lower 50s across higher terrain. Another cold night ahead tonight as high pressure crests overhead. High/mid level clouds will approach western areas after midnight, however areas near and east of the Hudson Valley should remain clear through at least midnight, allowing temps to drop off quite rapidly within the dry air mass. Low temps will likely drop into the upper 20s/lower 30s across the upper Hudson Valley/southern Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley, southern VT and perhaps the Berkshires, with lower/mid 30s across the remainder of the Hudson River Valley and NW CT. Additional frost advisories/freeze warnings will likely be issued for portions of the Hudson River Valley/NW CT where the growing season lingers. Dry weather is expected Saturday through at least Sunday morning, with occasional high/mid level clouds passing through, especially on Saturday as a mid level warm front approaches from the west. Max temps should reach the lower/mid 60s in valleys and 55-60 for higher terrain areas Saturday, warming into the upper 60s/lower 70s for valleys and lower/mid 60s across higher elevations Sunday ahead of incoming cold front. It will likely become breezy Sunday afternoon as low level pressure gradient tightens, especially within north/south oriented valleys where some gusts of 25-35 mph will be possible. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Key Messages: - Confidence remains high in a frontal system bringing beneficial, widespread rainfall to the region Sunday night through Monday. - 24-hour probabilities for > 0.5" range from ~60-75% regionwide with ~30-50% probabilities for greater than 1". Discussion: Cold front approaches from the west late Sunday night into Monday, with the possibility of a wave of low pressure developing along the front and tracking northward Monday. Greatest uncertainty with the rainfall during this period is how long it lasts and total amounts, which will depending on potential wave development. Should the wave develop, periods of rain may continue through much of Monday, with greater amounts of rainfall possible. On the other hand, there still remains a chance of a more progressive frontal system without wave development, which would result in rain tapering off earlier Monday with lower rainfall amounts. Latest 01Z/Fri NBM has 24-hour probs ending 8 PM Monday for rainfall > 0.5" at 60-75% across the region, with similar probs for rainfall > 1" of 30-50%, so it looks like at least a moderate rainfall should occur during this time period. Gusty south/southeast winds will also be possible ahead of the front, especially within some north/south oriented valleys. Latest NBM probs for 24-hour max ending 2 AM Monday indicated wind gusts > 40 mph are 30-50% within and just east of the Capital Region, likely due to channeled south/southeast winds ahead of the front Sunday afternoon/evening. Gusts of 25-35 mph seem likely in these areas. Cooler and somewhat unsettled conditions will continue through midweek, as additional shortwave energy tracks across the region from the Great Lakes region. A combination of forcing from these disturbances and potential lake effect processes will bring occasional shower chances, greatest and most frequent for areas near and north of I-90, and also occurring late Tuesday into Wednesday as a stronger shortwave tracks across the region. Near normal temps Mon-Tue should trend below normal by Wed-Thu, with daytime highs initially in the 50s/60s, cooling to the 40s/50s by Wed-Thu with overnight lows cooling to the 30s/40s by Wed-Thu. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 12z Saturday...VFR conditions are primarily expected at the terminals over the next 24 hours as high pressure builds across the region. Calm winds initially will increase by mid-morning Friday to around 5-10 kts with occasional gusts around 15-20 kts. Winds will become calm around 18/00z with the high directly overhead. Outlook... Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA. Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA. Monday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA. Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...24/37 SHORT TERM...24/35 LONG TERM...24 AVIATION...17