822
FXUS61 KALY 061029
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
629 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure east of the region will bring another mostly sunny
and warm day on Monday. An approaching cold front will bring
an increase in clouds on Tuesday along with periods of rain
beginning in the afternoon and continuing into Wednesday
morning. Behind the front, another period of dry but more
seasonable weather is in store for the rest of the week and at
least into the first half of next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message:
   -Much needed rainfall expected Tuesday afternoon into
    Wednesday morning with most areas forecast to receive 0.50
    to 1.00 inches of rain.

Discussion:
Surface high pressure will remain east of the region today
resulting in another mostly sunny and warm day as we remain in
south to southwesterly flow at the surface and aloft. While 850
hPa temperatures will be slightly lower compared to Sunday, it
will be another unseasonably warm day with highs reaching the
upper 70s to mid-80s. While Poughkeepsie could be close to a
record high today, all other sites will fall shy of records.
Mostly clear conditions will continue Monday night with
temperatures falling back into the 50s with some upper 40s
across the higher elevations.

Clouds will gradually increase on Tuesday as a cold front
approaches from the west. Moisture will increase ahead of the
front as well with precipitable water values increasing to 1.25
to 1.50 inches (+2 to +3 STDEV). An upper level shortwave
passing through the southwesterly flow aloft will increase
forcing for ascent and allow for periods of rain, beginning
Tuesday afternoon for areas north and west of Albany and
areawide during Tuesday night. A rumble of thunder could occur
with some of these showers for areas north and west of Albany
Tuesday afternoon with weak instability present. Overall, most
areas should pick up between 0.50 and 1.00 inches of rain but
some higher amounts up to 2 inches could occur if any steadier
and heavier periods of rain train over an area. Nonetheless,
this will be a beneficial rain for the area which has seen
another prolonged stretch of dry weather since our last rain
event on September 25. Prior to the arrival of rain,
temperatures should still rise into the 70s to around 80 on
Tuesday, falling back to the 40s and 50s Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Rain will end from northwest to southeast Wednesday morning as
the cold front crosses the area. Another area of high pressure
will build in from the northwest and anchor itself over our
region through at least Friday. Cooler, drier and breezy weather
arrives behind the front with high temperatures Wednesday only
in the 50s and 60s. Cold air advection continues Wednesday night
as 850 hPa temperatures approach or fall below 0C for most
areas. Temperatures will fall back into the 30s Wednesday night
with some upper 20s across the higher elevations. While a light
breeze should continue for most places Wednesday night, any
areas where winds become light or calm could have some patchy
frost. More widespread frost is likely Thursday night as winds
trend light to calm with the surface high directly overhead and
temperatures fall into the upper 20s to mid-30s. Frost
Advisories/Freeze Warnings may be needed for most areas still in
the growing season Thursday night. Most areas will only rise
into the 50s during the day Thursday which is 5-10 degrees below
normal.

Dry weather should continue into at least the start of the
weekend, but will be monitoring the track of a developing low
pressure system off the Southeast coast which may track up the
coast and close enough to bring another period of rain by the
end of the weekend. If it tracks far enough offshore, dry
weather will continue. Temperatures Friday through next weekend
look to be near seasonable levels with highs in the 60s (some
50s in the higher elevations) and lows in the 30s/40s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 12z Tuesday...Any fog/low clouds and IFR/LIFR
conditions lift by 13Z-14Z/Mon with VFR conditions then
prevailing through at least 00Z/Tue. Patchy fog could produce
intermittent IFR Vsbys at KGFL after 01Z/Tue, with areas of low
clouds and some fog developing after 05Z/Tue at KGFL/KPSF, and
possibly KPOU and KALB after 08Z-10Z/Tue with some IFR
conditions possible. Light/variable winds will trend into the
south at 5-10 KT by late this morning through this afternoon,
then becoming light/variable after sunset except remaining south
at 4-8 KT at KALB and KPSF.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night through Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures(Year Set):

Monday October 6:
Albany: 90(1900)
Glens Falls: 85(1910)
Poughkeepsie: 86(2007)

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...33
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...33
AVIATION...24
CLIMATE...07