698
FXUS61 KALY 232353
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
653 PM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Blustery conditions will continue through the remainder of the
weekend along with isolated to scattered rain showers, mixed
with snow at times in higher elevations. Another system will
bring mainly light rainfall Monday night through Tuesday
followed by lake-effect rain and snow showers Tuesday night
through Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...As of 750 PM EST, strong shortwave approaching the
ON/QC border with trailing energy tracking across Lake Ontario
producing an uptick in shower/drizzle coverage across the SW
Adirondacks, Mohawk Valley and eastern Catskills, with some
sprinkles even extending into the Helderbergs. Expect this
increased coverage of showers/sprinkles to continue over the
next several hours, eventually extending into upslope areas of
southern VT/NW MA.

Cloud top temperatures are not very cold, generally -8C to -12C,
so at least initially, lack of ice in the clouds keeping P-type
mainly liquid. Slightly colder cloud tops may eventually extend
into the SW Adirondacks after 9 PM, allowing for some mix of
snow/snow grains to develop.

In the wake of shortwave passage after midnight, west to
northwest winds may increase once again, possibly reaching 30-40
mph across the Mohawk Valley, Capital Region and Berkshires.

So with this update, mainly minor adjustments to coverage of
precipitation based on latest radar, and to temps/dewpoints
according to latest sfc obs.

[PREVIOUS 337 PM EST]...A sub-975 hPa low pressure system is
lifting northward across Nova Scotia. Precipitation associated
with this system has decreased in coverage and retreated back
eastward, though some upslope rain showers will continue into
this evening across portions of the Taconics and into western
New England. This has also caused winds to pick up with observed
gusts in the 25 to 40 mph range. An upper- level shortwave will
cross the region tonight which will result in an increased
coverage of lake- effect and upslope rain showers and high
elevation snow showers, especially early in the night. A more
pronounced lake- effect band will develop overnight as the wind
flow favors a multi-lake connection with moisture feeding in
from lakes Superior, Huron and Ontario and even Georgian Bay.
With the strong winds aloft, this band should be able to extend
well inland reaching portions of the western Mohawk Valley,
Schoharie County and Catskills. The pressure gradient will
remain strong allowing for gusty winds to continue throughout
the night, on the order of 25 to 35 mph. Lows will fall back to
the upper 20s to upper 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Gusty winds will continue in the wake of the upper-level
shortwave on Sunday as cold air flowing over the warmer waters
of the Great Lakes will continue to result in a band of lake-
effect rain and snow showers oriented toward the western Mohawk
Valley, Schoharie County and Catskills. With the arrival of
mid- level dry air, this band should be rather shallow in
height, so any snow showers that do occur should be light to
occasionally moderate in intensity. Marginal temperatures should
limit any accumulations to a coating to an inch or so where the
band is more persistent. It is possible some fragments of this
band make it as far east as the mid-Hudson Valley and even
Litchfield Hills but may only bring a sprinkle at best to these
areas. Otherwise, mainly dry weather is expected with highs in
the mid-30s to upper 40s. The arrival of high pressure and weak
upper-level ridging will bring an end to lake-effect
precipitation Sunday night as clouds continue to clear. Wind
will also subside during the night. Lows will fall back to the
20s to around 30.

High pressure will bring a mostly sunny and dry start to the
week before the next low pressure system, tracking to our north
and west over the Great Lakes, brings another round of
widespread rainfall Monday night and Tuesday. Temperatures may
fall quickly Monday evening if enough clearing occurs before
slowly rising overnight into Tuesday. If precipitation arrives
before temperatures rise above freezing, a brief period of
freezing rain will be possible before changing over to rain.
This could be mostly favored across portions of the Adirondacks
and southern Greens. Lows Monday night will fall back to the
upper 20s to upper 30s with highs Tuesday in the 40s to mid-50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low pressure and its associated cold front will depart the area
Tuesday night as the arrival of colder air and flow off the
Great Lakes results in some lingering lake-effect snow showers
into and through the day Wednesday, mainly for the Adirondacks.
Otherwise, a period of drier weather returns with highs right
around seasonable levels (30s and 40s). There remains a signal
for another system to reach our area later in the week during
the Thanksgiving holiday, but confidence on track and
precipitation types and amounts remains low. While ensemble
mean forecasts continue to depict a low track to our south over
the mid- Atlantic (which would favor snow or a rain snow mix
across portions of the region pending thermal profiles),
members also show another cluster of a low track to our north
and west over the lower Great Lakes. This could result in snow,
rain and even some mixed precipitation. It is still possible the
system could just bypass us to the south. Will continue to
monitor trends as the event gets closer. For now, will only
include chance PoPs and rain and snow for the forecast.
Regardless of the track, a period of colder weather looks to
arrive in its wake to close the week and open next weekend along
with some lake-effect snow downwind of the lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper level disturbance and some lake moisture will increase
cloud cover overnight, with some spotty sprinkles possible at
KGFL, KALB and KPSF especially between 03Z-08Z/Sun. Some snow
could briefly mix in at KPSF with passing showers. Cigs will
vary between VFR and MVFR at KGFL and KALB through 12Z/Sat, with
mainly MVFR Cigs expected at KPSF. KPOU Cigs later this evening
should remain VFR. Showers could briefly produce IFR/MVFR Vsbys
at KPSF, with mainly VFR elsewhere. On Sunday, MVFR Cigs could
linger at KPSF through mid morning, otherwise VFR conditions are
expected with occasional Cigs of 3500-5000 FT AGL. Winds will be
west to northwest at 8-12 KT this evening with some gusts of
20-25 KT, possibly increasing at KALB and KPSF after 06Z/Sun to
25-30 KT. On Sunday, west to northwest winds will increase to
10-18 KT with gusts of 25-33 KT expected. Low level wind shear
will be possible through midnight as winds around 2000 FT AGL
increase from the west to northwest at 35-40+ KT, with surface
winds remaining from the west mainly less than 15 KT.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely RA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite RA.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA...SHSN.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thanksgiving Day: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Rathbun
NEAR TERM...KL/Rathbun
SHORT TERM...Rathbun
LONG TERM...Rathbun
AVIATION...KL