638
FXUS61 KALY 040509
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
109 AM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure will continue to bring dry and summerlike
weather through Wednesday. Warm weather continues on Thursday
before a cold front brings isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. Additional
showers and thunderstorms are likely Friday and Saturday before
drier conditions return for Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Upper level ridge overhead and surface high pressure centered
off the East Coast will continue to bring dry weather across
eastern New York and western New England through Wednesday
night. South to southwesterly flow will continue to advect a
warmer and more humid air mass into the region. It will not be
as chilly as last night with many areas falling into the 50s
with some 40s across the higher elevations. Many areas will rise
into the 80s on Wednesday. It will become a bit more humid by
Wednesday afternoon with dewpoints rising into the upper 50s and
lower 60s, but it will still feel close to the actual air
temperature. Lows Wednesday night dip into the upper 50s to
mid-60s. Skies will remain mostly clear through Wednesday night,
though some smoke from Canadian wildfires well above the
surface will give it a white appearance at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Thursday will be another warm and humid day across the region
with many areas rising into the 80s to near 90 once again with
dewpoints in the 60s making it feel humid. A cold front will
begin to approach the region from the west during the afternoon
while a weak upper level shortwave passes through the
southwesterly flow aloft. Forcing for ascent combined with
around 1000-1500 J/kg of SBCAPE and 20-30 kt of 0-6km shear
could support at least isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. Dry mid-
levels could help support some stronger storms capable of strong
wind gusts. We remain outlooked in a Marginal Risk for severe
thunderstorms by the Storm Prediction Center for Thursday. Any
showers will weaken Thursday night as the front begins to cross
the region. Low temperatures fall back to the upper 50s to
mid-60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecast confidence begins to decrease Friday and Saturday and
will be dependent on where a frontal boundary stalls or is
positioned as well as this system being impacted on the future
track of a low pressure system off the Carolina coast. Along and
south of the front, additional moisture and forcing for ascent
from an additional upper level shortwave will support additional
showers and some thunderstorms on Friday. Have placed the
highest PoPs (60 to 70 percent) across areas mainly south of
Albany. An additional upper level shortwave and low pressure
developing along the front will likely result in continued
showers and thunderstorms on Saturday, but where and how much
precipitation occurs remains uncertain. Will maintain likely
PoPs (60 to 70 percent) on Saturday. With the clouds and
additional rainfall potential, temperatures will begin to trend
downward Friday into Saturday with near to below normal
temperatures expected by Saturday.

Sunday and Monday continue to look drier with high pressure
returning before another upper level system approaches from the
west with additional chances for showers and thunderstorms by
Tuesday. Temperatures Sunday and Monday look to be close to
seasonable levels.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IR satellite imagery shows some passing cirrus clouds over the
region. Through the rest of the overnight and into the day on
Wednesday, few-sct high cirrus clouds are expected across the
region. There may be some high level haze as well, but flying
conditions will continue to remain VFR with no precip for the
entire TAF period, ending at 06z Thursday. Calm winds are
expected through daybreak, but southerly winds will increase to
5 to 10 kts during the day on Wednesday. Light southerly winds
will continue into Wednesday night.

Outlook...

Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for CTZ001-013.
NY...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for NYZ063>066.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Rathbun
NEAR TERM...Rathbun
SHORT TERM...Rathbun
LONG TERM...Rathbun
AVIATION...Frugis