932
FXUS61 KALY 031434
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1034 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of steady rain moves into the region this
morning before tapering off to scattered showers by this afternoon.
Temperatures will be mild across the region today ahead of a cold
front that will pass this evening into the first half of the night.
Mainly dry conditions return for Friday before additional chances
for precipitation arrive this weekend with seasonable
temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Key Message:

- A wet morning gives way to drying conditions this afternoon
  with mild temperatures.

Discussion:
.UPDATE...As of 10:35 AM EDT...AM showers associated with an
upper disturbance and isentropic lift/warm advection have mainly
moved off to the east of our region now, although a few
lingering showers will be possible across the Mid Hudson Valley
and western New England through the next couple of hours. The
surface warm front remains to the south/southwest of our region
across western NY and PA, but most areas have seen temperatures
rise into at least the 40s. The exception is across portions of
the ADKs, southern Greens, northern Berkshires, and CT River
Valley. Here, a few pockets remain where temperatures are
hovering near freezing. Temperatures here are running a few to
several degrees below the previous forecast, so we adjusted
temperatures down through the next few hours with this update.
We also trimmed back PoPs with precip moving out of the region
couple hours earlier than forecast. With precip having come to
an end, we have cancelled the winter weather advisory. A few
slippery spots could remain in the former advisory area through
the next couple hours, however, until temperatures rise above
freezing.

Otherwise, a mostly dry rest of the day is expected with
temperatures warming into the 60s once the surface warm front
finally lifts north this afternoon. High temperature forecast is
admittedly tricky due to widespread cloud cover and limited mixing,
but there is a very warm airmass aloft. Wind advisory continues into
this evening for the ADKs, but the stronger gusts will be mainly
confined to high elevations here. Elsewhere across the region, the
low to mid-level wind field is quite impressive with a 60+ kt LLJ at
850 mb, although forecast soundings suggest that these winds will
remain mainly aloft as we struggle to fully mix through the low-
level inversion this afternoon. Nevertheless, if there are any
areas with more breaks of sun that allow for deeper mixing this
afternoon, we could get some localized gusty winds. All in all,
previous forecast mostly remains on track aside from the
aforementioned updates...

.Previous...Steady rain exits the region by late morning/early
afternoon, with just a few lingering scattered showers left over
through this afternoon ahead of the cold front. Thunderstorms
are not likely despite the general thunder outlook from SPC
given the lack of instability. Otherwise, dry conditions with
mild temperatures can be expected today with highs in the upper
50s to low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

- Dry conditions Friday with cooling temperatures in the wake of
  a cold front.

- Additional chances for rain and possibly some mixed
  precipitation Saturday.

Discussion:

The aforementioned cold front passes through the region this
evening into the first half of tonight, yielding drying
conditions in its wake and a cooling temperature trend into the
weekend. Low temperatures tonight will fall to the 30s to upper
40s with pockets of near 50 possible in the lower Mid-Hudson
Valley. Dry weather will persist into Friday as surface high
pressure and upper-level ridging build eastward into the region.
Highs will be in the 50s and 60s. It is possible that some
showers could reach northward into the Mid-Hudson Valley
courtesy of a nearby boundary Friday afternoon, but with a low
probability of this, kept PoPs to slight chance. Lows Friday
night will be in the 30s and 40s.

Chances for precipitation increase once again beginning Saturday
morning as the aforementioned high and ridge slide eastward and
a surface wave and upper-level shortwave near. Rain will move in
more or less from west to east Saturday morning as warm air
advection increases. It`s possible that some freezing rain could
occur in portions of the Southern Adirondacks if temperatures
don`t get above freezing by onset. However, with low confidence
in this element of the forecast, added snow with a slight chance
of freezing rain in areas that are at or below freezing Saturday
morning. But any freezing rain should quickly transition to rain
by mid-morning as temperatures rise so minimal impacts are
expected at this time. Rain will then persist through Saturday
with highs primarily in the 40s and lows in the 30s and 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Messages:

- High confidence in widespread rainfall into Sunday, with a 25-65%
chance of greater than one inch of rain.

- High confidence in below normal temperatures beginning next
Tuesday. 30-50% chance of one inch of snow in mountain areas Tuesday.

Discussion:

A front and weak wave of low pressure will continue to gradually
push south/east across the area Sun into Sun night. Will continue to
maintain likely PoPs with anomalous moisture still in place (PWAT
anomalies of +2 to +3 STDEV). With a SW flow aloft, the front/wave
may slow its progress with showers lingering into Sun night. Colder
air aloft may start to move in prior to precip ending, so some snow
could mix it at higher elevations. Temperatures Sun look warmer than
Sat, but still cool north/west of Albany. Areas south of Albany
could warm into the 60s depending on any breaks in the showers ahead
of the front. NBM probs for > 1" storm total rainfall are 25-65%.

Other than a few leftover showers along the northwest periphery of
the departing front/wave, Mon looks mainly dry with near normal
temperatures as weak high pressure builds in. A cold front and
associated upper level closed low approaching from the Great Lakes
then moves through our area Mon night into Tue. Will mention
scattered valley rain/snow showers and mountain snow showers for
now. Will need to monitor potential for more widespread precip
depending on whether a coastal cyclone develops near/over New
England. At this time NBM prob for >1" snow are 30-50% in mountain
areas. Temperatures will cool to below normal levels Tue into Wed. A
few rain/snow showers could linger into Wed, but overall drying
should occur as the system moves east of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 12z Friday...Warm front continues to lift northward across
the area. Another batch of rain with some embedded TSRA will move
across the TAF sites through around 13z-14z, with continued IFR/MVFR
conditions. Will mention TEMPO for TSRA at KALB/KGFL where coverage
looks greater, although isolated TSRA cannot be ruled out at
KPOU/KPSF. Gradual improvement to MVFR should occur during the
afternoon as a cold front moves east across the area, with further
improvement to VFR this evening. Another round of SHRA may occur at
KPOU after 06z Fri, so have included a PROB30.

Will continue mention of low level wind shear at all TAF sites from
into this afternoon, as a southwest jet aloft moves overhead. Winds
at 2000 ft AGL expected to be mainly 40-50 kt during this time, with
surface winds around 5-15 kt. Surface winds will be generally south-
southeast, shifting to the west-southwest behind the cold front this
afternoon and increasing to 10-18 kt with gusts of 20-30 kt
developing.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA.
Saturday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite RA.
Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite RA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...RA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...SHSN.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
With rain expected through this morning and scattered showers
possible this afternoon, the risk of fire spread is low for
today. Therefore, despite gusty winds, no fire weather products
were found to be necessary after coordination with fire weather
partners. Tomorrow will be a drier day, but with slackening
winds, RH values ranging from about 35-50%, and wet fuels, it is
thought that the risk of fire spread will also be low.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ032-033-042.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gant
NEAR TERM...Gant/Main
SHORT TERM...Gant
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...Gant