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FXUS61 KALY 262010
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
410 PM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal system will continue to impact the region
through tomorrow morning, bringing scattered showers and a few non-
severe thunderstorms through this afternoon with high-elevation
rain, snow, and a mix thereof overnight. The last half of the
weekend into the beginning of this week will trend drier before the
chances for showers and thunderstorms increase once again for
Tuesday afternoon courtesy of an incoming cold front. Another brief
period of dry conditions follows for the middle of the week before
additional chances for rain come just in time for the beginning of
May.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
The low pressure system responsible for this morning`s
widespread rainfall has now encompassed the region with its
attendant cold front currently sweeping through Central New
York and entering the western portion of our CWA. This
morning`s stratiform rain has been reduced to mere showers to
the south and east of Albany with convective showers now
developing just ahead of the incoming front in the Southwest
Adirondacks, Mohawk Valley, northeast Catskills, and
Helderbergs.

Showers will continue through the remainder of the afternoon
with scattered, non-severe thunderstorms possible mainly within
and south of the Capital District. Presently, the latest RAP-
derived, SPC Mesoscale analysis indicates a south to north-
oriented tongue of instability extending through the Hudson
River Valley with the greatest SBCAPE values on the order of 500
to 1000 J/kg in the Mid-Hudson Valley. With modest at best
lapse rates (low-level on the order of 5-6 C/km and a swatch of
mid- level around 6 C/km within, south, and east of Albany),
limited breaks of sun mitigating the greater destabilization of
the atmosphere, and limited shear, it will be hard for
convection to achieve much vertical growth and/or organization.
Still, the requisite amount of instability and stronger forcing
from the front will likely be enough to allow a few
thunderstorms to develop especially in the Mid-Hudson Valley
this afternoon. The main "threat" with these non-severe
thunderstorms will be gusty winds. However, the combination of
strong cold air advection, precipitation loading, and rapid,
localized cooling from heavier downpours could also induce gusty
winds with heavier showers elsewhere.

As the low continues to make progress to the north and east this
afternoon into this evening, the cold front will swiftly sweep
through the region, sending temperatures on a sharp, downward
trend. And while, as a whole, shower and thunderstorm activity
will quickly be lost at the passage of the front and loss of
daytime heating this evening, persistent cyclonic flow aloft
maintained by the south and east dig of an upper-level
shortwave/closed low will generate some high-elevation, upslope
showers through the overnight tonight. Unfortunately, with low
temperatures falling to the low to mid 30s in the Southwest
Adirondacks, Eastern Catskills, and Southern Greens where
additional precipitation is expected, rain will not be the only
type. Expect some snow and/or snow/rain mix through tomorrow
morning. Elsewhere, lows will be in the upper 30s to low 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High-elevation, upslope showers will persist through tomorrow
morning, gradually waning as the surface low farther departs
towards the Gulf of Maine, taking its upper-level counterpart
with it. Tomorrow`s lingering elevation- dependent showers will
transition to all rain by mid to late morning before tapering
off in the early to mid-afternoon. By then, regionwide dry
conditions will be reinforced as surface high pressure and
upper-level ridging begin to build eastward. High temperatures
will be cooler than recent days in the wake of the front with
values in the upper 40s to upper 50s.

Tranquil conditions remain in place through the remainder of the
short term period with the surface anticyclone and
associated upper-level ridging amplifying across much of the
East Coast. Lows tomorrow night will fall to the mid 30s to low
40s. Monday will be a beautiful final Monday of April with
mostly sunny skies and highs in the 60s to low 70s. Lows Monday
night will then fall widely to the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Messages:

 - Severe thunderstorms remain possible (15-29% chance) Tuesday
   afternoon and evening. The greatest risk lies to the north
   and west of Albany.

Discussion:

With high pressure keeping hold of the region, Tuesday will
begin dry with clouds increasing from northwest to southeast
ahead of an incoming frontal system. While a few showers will be
possible with the initial passage of the warm front, the main
concern comes with the trailing cold front that looks to pass
through late Tuesday afternoon/Tuesday evening. This is
definitely the system to watch over the next seven days for
potentially impactful weather. Though the best instability still
looks to lie to the west of the region, the latest NBM
probabilities of thunder range from around 25-40% from Albany
north and east with CAPE on the order of 300-400 J/kg. Strong
forcing with the front could certainly promote strong to
potentially severe thunderstorms in these areas with forecast
soundings indicating fairly decent shear and modest mid-level
lapse rates. SPC still has a portion of our area in a 15-29%
chance for their Day 4 severe weather outlook, so will continue
to monitor this situation closely going forward. The outcome of
severe weather will be highly dependent on the timing of the
front which, at this point, still remains somewhat uncertain.

Outside of the chances for rain and thunderstorms Tuesday into
Tuesday night, another brief dry period comes for the middle of
the week with high pressure building in once again. But, such
has been the trend here recently, additional chances for rain
come for the end of the week into the first half of the weekend
as another low pressure system looks to impact the region.

Temperatures throughout the long term period will be in the 60s
and 70s for the most part, with Tuesday being the anomaly with
mainly mid to upper 70s. Lows will be mainly in the upper 30s to
40s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18z Sunday...A cold front in central NY will be moving
eastward across eastern New York and western New England through
early this evening. Lingering -SHRA over KPOU/KPSF should end 18z-
19z, however, scattered SHRA/TSRA will then develop along the cold
front. These should mainly stay south of KGFL, affecting KALB, KPOU
and KPSF through 22z. Conditions will mainly be MVFR until the cold
front passes through, although brief periods of VFR may also occur
in the warm sector ahead of the cold front. Behind the cold front
borderline MVFR/VFR conditions expected, lowering to MVFR at
KALB/KGFL/KPSF overnight as an upper level low moves overhead. Winds
will be south-southwest around 5-10 kt, then shift to the northwest
tonight behind the cold front and steadily increase to 10-15 kt with
gusts of 20-25 kt.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gant
NEAR TERM...Gant
SHORT TERM...Gant
LONG TERM...Gant
AVIATION...JPV