463
FXUS61 KALY 081114
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
614 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level disturbance and a cold front will increase
clouds today and bring isolated to scattered showers north and
west of the Capital Region with brisk conditions. Winds will
diminish tonight into Saturday, as high pressure builds in with
seasonably cold and dry weather to open the weekend. An
approaching low pressure system will bring showers to the region
late Sunday into early Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...As of 615 AM EST, low clouds across the SW
Adirondacks have expanded east into the Lake George/Saratoga
region and SW VT/northern Berkshire County. Mostly cloudy skies
should persist across the SW Adirondacks today, while some
breaks eventually develop across the Saratoga/Lake George region
before more clouds redevelop later this morning.

Temps vary across the region, with lower/mid 30s where skies
remain clear and winds light to calm, while rising into the
lower 40s across portions of the SW Adirondacks where persistent
clouds and some wind have been occurring.

So, some adjustments to sky cover and temps/dewpoints according
to latest obs with this update.

[PREVIOUS 348 AM EST]...As of 345 AM EST, low clouds have
expanded across most of the SW Adirondacks, as well as higher
elevations in southern VT. Patchy high level clouds have also
develop for areas near and south of I-90. The patchy high clouds
have developed ahead of a compact shortwave, which will pass
across the region prior to sunrise, with high clouds shifting
east of the region. The lower clouds should persist across the
SW Adirondacks and southern VT through sunrise, and may expand a
bit more into some lower elevations within the southern
Adirondacks/upper Hudson Valley.

For most areas south of I-90, mostly sunny skies are expected
this morning. A cold front approaching from the northwest should
allow clouds across northern areas to shift southward through
the day, so by early to mid afternoon, areas near and north of
I-90 should be mostly cloudy, with clouds eventually expanding
southward into the SE Catskills, mid Hudson Valley and NW CT by
late afternoon.

A few rain showers/sprinkles will be possible this afternoon for
areas mainly north of I-90 as the cold front approaches.

Gusty west winds will develop south of the approaching cold
front, shifting into the northwest with its passage later this
afternoon. Some gusts of 30-40 mph will be possible, especially
across higher elevations, as well as within the Mohawk Valley,
Capital Region and Berkshires.

High temps should reach 55-60 in lower elevations north and west
of Albany, and lower/mid 60s to the south/east, perhaps a few
degrees warmer in portions of the mid Hudson Valley. Temps
should only reach the mid/upper 40s across the southern
Adirondacks and higher terrain of southern VT, with temps
gradually falling later this afternoon for most areas north of
I-90.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A few lingering rain showers will be possible prior to midnight,
especially across the SW Adirondacks, southern VT, and the
eastern Catskills. Across higher terrain areas mainly above 1500
feet, a changeover to snow will be possible with some scattered
coatings to less than one half inch of snowfall. Gusty winds
will persist this evening, with some gusts of 30-40 mph
remaining possible, especially across the Capital Region and
Berkshires, with winds gradually decreasing later at night. Lows
mainly in the mid 20s to lower/mid 30s.

Mostly sunny skies expected Saturday, with breezy conditions in
the morning before winds diminish in the afternoon. Some gusts
up to 25 mph will be possible in the morning across the
Berkshires. Highs in the mid 40s to lower/mid 50s, except for
upper 30s across higher terrain of the southern
Adirondacks/southern VT.

Clear and cold for Sunday night, with some of the coldest temps
for the fall thus far, with mid teens to lower 20s expected
across much of the southern Adirondacks and upper Hudson Valley,
and mid/upper 20s elsewhere.

Some morning sunshine on Sunday followed by increasing afternoon
clouds. Some showers may develop toward sunset for areas mainly
west of the Hudson River. Can not rule out some snow/sleet mixed
in at precipitation onset across higher terrain areas of the
southern Adirondacks/southern VT. Highs mainly in the mid 40s to
lower 50s. Showers continue Sunday night, with most likely
amounts of 0.10-0.25" for the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Some lingering showers Monday into Tuesday, especially areas
north of I-90 as an upper level disturbance combines with some
lake moisture. Mild temperatures Monday with highs reaching the
lower/mid 60s in some valley areas and 50s for most higher
elevations, cooling to 40s and 50s for Tuesday. Overnight lows
Monday night in the mid 30s to lower 40s.

Fair weather with seasonably cool temperatures for Wednesday,
then another chance for widespread showers arrives for Thursday
ahead of a cold front and amplifying upper level trough. Highs
mainly in the mid 40s to lower/mid 50s, with nighttime lows
Wednesday night in the 20s to lower 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions continue for all TAF sites through the TAF period.
Low clouds have moved into the KGFL airfield this morning bringing
low VFR conditions through 08/15z. Winds increase this morning to
between 5 and 10 knots then gradually increase through this
afternoon into tonight to between 10 and 15 knots with gusts between
20 and 25 knots.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA.
Veterans Day: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A Red Flag Warning is in effect for Litchfield County
Connecticut and Berkshire County Massachusetts for today based
on collaboration with the National Weather Service at Norton and
their state partners. A Special Weather Statement was issued
for today for the mid Hudson Valley, eastern Catskills,
Taconics and Capital District based on collaboration with NYS
fire weather contacts.

A drier air mass today will allow for lower RH values of 30 to
50 percent for areas along and south of I-90, and 50-70 percent
readings to the north. In addition, gusty west to northwest
winds may reach 25-35 mph with isolated higher gusts, especially
this afternoon.

The winds will diminish tonight with the RH values recovering
to 60 to 90 percent. RH values will lower to 30 to 55 percent on
Saturday afternoon. West to northwest winds may be somewhat
gusty Saturday morning, especially across the Berkshires where
gusts of 20 to 25 mph are possible. However, winds are expected
decrease 10 mph or less during the afternoon hours.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for CTZ001-013.
NY...None.
MA...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for MAZ001-025.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL/Wasula
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...Webb
FIRE WEATHER...KL/Wasula