620
FXUS61 KALY 212315
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
715 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring dry weather with comfortable humidity
levels through Saturday. Temperatures trend back to near normal
Friday then slightly above normal Saturday. A cold front will
bring the next round of showers and thunderstorms Sunday into
Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure will continue to gradually build over the region
tonight through Friday with Hurricane Erin tracking
northeastward across the North Atlantic farther away from the
U.S. Clouds from this morning have continued to gradually break
for sun from north to south and a trend toward a clear/mostly
clear sky is expected by tonight. With the sun and mixing, winds
have been gusty at times mainly from Albany and points south
and east due to the increasing pressure gradient on the outer
periphery of Erin. Some gusts on the order of 20 to 25 mph are
expected through this afternoon before winds become light to
calm tonight. With the clear sky and light winds, have gone
below the NBM for lows tonight with values dropping into the
lower 40s to lower 50s. Patchy fog will likely develop in the
typical locations. Temperatures will rebound back to near normal
values by Friday afternoon with highs in the mid-70s to lower
80s. Humidity levels will remain rather comfortable with
dewpoints in the upper 40s to upper 50s. High pressure slides
to the east by Saturday allowing for southerly return flow. This
will allow temperatures to rise to slightly above normal values
with readings in the upper 70s to mid-80s. Despite the warmer
day, humidity levels will once again remain low.

The next precipitation opportunity will be on Sunday and
Monday. Aloft, an upper level low and longwave trough will
slowly approach from the west. Meanwhile, a surface low pressure
system centered near Ontario/Hudson Bay will send a cold front
across the region later Sunday through Monday. A modest moisture
return will occur ahead of the front with precipitable water
values increasing to 1.00 to 1.60 inches. Forcing for ascent
will be present with the region located within the right
entrance region of a 100+ kt upper level jet. However, the mid
level forcing (i.e. 500 hPa trough axis and shortwave energy)
will be lacking and displaced to the north and west behind the
front. Convergence along the slow moving front combined with the
upper jet support should still allow for at least scattered if
not broken coverage of showers. Enough instability looks to be
present for a few thunderstorms, but will monitor whether or not
enough instability and shear will be present for a few stronger
thunderstorms. The slow forward progression of the front could
allow for some training convection leading to some locally heavy
rainfall. Still, most if not all of this rainfall will be
beneficial. With the increase in clouds and showers, high
temperatures will be in the 70s to around 80 both days.

Behind the front, the main upper level trough will build
overhead for Tuesday into Wednesday. This will bring cooler
conditions along with some diurnally driven showers, especially
on Tuesday. 850 hPa temperatures down to +7C should even allow
for some lake-effect and/or lake-enhanced showers, some of
which could extend into the Adirondacks. Highs Tuesday and
Wednesday will be in the 60s and 70s. High pressure building
back into the region will bring dry conditions once again by
next Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Flying conditions are currently VFR across the region. Most
areas are fairly clear although some thin high clouds on the
outer fringes from TC Erin are close to the southeastern
horizon. Through the overnight hours, skies will continue to be
fairly clear. Winds will be fairly light to calm for most sites,
with just a slight northeast breeze at times (mainly for
KPOU/KPSF). Some patchy radiational fog may develop towards
daybreak at KGFL, otherwise, the other sites should stay quiet
with no fog. Any fog may briefly lower visibility to MVFR/IFR
for a short duration right around sunrise. Any fog should be
gone shortly after daybreak.

During the day on Friday, flying conditions will be VFR with a
mostly clear sky. Just few-sct dirurnal cu is expected to
develop on Friday with light surface winds.

Outlook...
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Rathbun
DISCUSSION...Rathbun
AVIATION...Frugis