Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
701 FXUS61 KALY 221727 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 1227 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Widespread valley rain and mountain snow this morning tapers to rain and snow showers this afternoon and evening, with several inches of accumulation for the high terrain areas west of interstate 87 by the time the storm winds down. Scattered light rain and snow showers continue on and off through the weekend with cool and breezy conditions. After a brief break Monday, precipitation chances look to increase again for Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Winter Storm Warning in effect for western Greene and western Ulster counties until 1 AM Saturday for elevations mainly above 1500 feet. Winter Weather Advisory in effect for Schoharie County until 1 AM Saturday for elevations mainly above 1000 feet. .Update...As of 11:15 AM, a chilly and damp Friday continues as our mature/occluded surface meanders over the eastern Catskills and temperatures remain in the mid-30s to low-40s. The cold conveyor belt and enhanced FGEN in the mid- levels has resulted in a organized band of precipitation across the southern Tier and central NY. As the cold conveyor belt wraps into the east side of the surface low this afternoon, this band will track into eastern NY providing another period of more organized valley rain and wet snow for elevations at and above 1000 feet. The eastern and northern Catskills will likely be most impacted with wet snow accumulations and potential snowfall rates at or above 0.5"/hr leading to an additional 1 to 4 inches with 3 to 6 inches for areas above 2000 feet. Additional power outages for these higher terrain areas is possible given the wet snow that has already accumulated plus the additional snow this afternoon. Considered issuing a winter weather advisory for western Albany County but given the long duration of this event and the fact that the highest totals will around and above 1500ft, decided to hold off and will instead issue a Special Weather Statement once the band develops this afternoon. Snowfall rates Based on latest NYS mesonet obs and ground truth data, highest snowfall totals so far have occurred in the eastern Catskills for elevators around and above 2000 feet where reports range from 10 to 14 inches with a respectable 10 to 12 inches in the higher terrain areas of Schoharie County. Even western Albany County in elevations above 1000 feet have received 2 to 5 inches of wet snow. Previous discussion...Rain and snow showers diminish in coverage this evening as the surface and upper low track in tandem to our south off the NJ coast. A shortwave rotating around the periphery of the upper low will help to induce surface cyclogenesis off the coast of Cape Cod, and while this storm will track towards Maine and Nova Scotia, some rain/snow showers in its precip shield could spread back into western MA/VT as an inverted trough develops back towards the core of the upper low. Additional light snow accumulations will thus be possible in the southern Greens tonight. Given that the snow will be relegated to the mountains, we did not consider adding this area to the advisory, although a few of the mountain towns could see snow totals of 3-6" between this mornings snow and the additional snow showers tonight. Lows tonight will be mainly in the 20s to 30s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Saturday and Sunday...The upper low will track off the New England coast Saturday, becoming centered over Nova Scotia by Sunday. A second upper shortwave will track from the northern Great Lakes and through upstate NY Sunday, becoming absorbed into the upper low. Thus, with our proximity to the upper low and moist cyclonic flow aloft, we will likely see some scattered rain/snow showers on Saturday, especially in the NW flow upslope favored areas and downwind of the Great Lakes where some lake effect/enhanced snow showers are expected. With NW flow trajectories and enhanced lift by the approaching shortwave, a band of lake effect snow looks to reach the northern Catskills and potentially southwestern Mohawk Valley Saturday night into Sunday morning, with additional light accumulations of snow possible. However, the trend through the day Sunday should be for drier conditions by the afternoon. Both Saturday and Sunday will feature gusty northwest winds and highs in the 30s to 40s. Lows Saturday night will be in the 20s to 30 again. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Key Message: - Active long term with several chances of precipitation Discussion: High pressure will build across the region Sunday night into the daytime Monday, and should give us a brief break in precipitation chances before the arrival of our next weather maker Monday night. Morning lows in the 20s to near 30 will quickly rise into the upper 40s to low 50s with a warm front lifting in from the south. Increased lift along the front with a trailing shortwave will increase precipitation chances, especially north of the Mid Hudson Valley. Rain is favored, though some wet snow may mix in at higher elevations late Tuesday as flow switches back to the west/northwest with a cold front. Much cooler air will follow with lows back into the 20s to low 30s Tuesday night, and highs ranging from the upper 20s/low 30s (terrain) to mid 40s (valleys) Wednesday. Most will see dry weather for the middle of next week, though some lake effect/upslope rain and snow showers will be possible across the Mohawk Valley and western ADKs Wednesday. Will need to keep an eye on the Thanksgiving holiday as some guidance continues to suggest potential for another system to track over or just near the region. With confidence on the system track and timing still low this far out, will continue to advertise low chance (20-40%) POPs at this time. Temperatures look to average below normal for the end of November. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 18z Saturday... Periods of IFR and MVFR conditions continue through the TAF period for all TAF sites due to low ceilings or low visibilities. Our weather system continues to bring scattered rain showers to all KPSF, KGFL, and KALB through the TAF period and KPOU will continue to see a mix of snow or rain showers through the TAF period. Wind gusts decrease tonight from 15 to 25 knots to between 5 and 10 knots that continues through the end of the TAF period. For KPOU, periods of mist can occur through tonight into tomorrow morning due to the recent rain/snowfall. Outlook... Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 31 kts. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for NYZ047. Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Saturday for NYZ058-063. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Main/Speciale NEAR TERM...Main/Speciale SHORT TERM...Main LONG TERM...Speck AVIATION...Webb