471
FXUS61 KALY 082313
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
713 PM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Any showers and thunderstorms diminish this evening, with mainly
dry conditions then expected through the middle of next week.
Temperatures begin to moderate over the weekend, with humidity
also increasing early next week. A cold front then brings
additional chances for showers or storms and cooler temperatures
by the middle to end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Messages:

- Hot and humid conditions will return late this weekend through
  early next week. Heat advisories may be needed for some
  valley areas early next week.

As of 2:10 PM EDT...1026 mb surface high pressure remains
situated east of New England, while aloft GOES 16 WV imagery
shows a weak upper trough moving over upstate NY. With 500 mb
temperatures of around -12C, there is enough instability (1000 -
1500 J/kg of SBCAPE per the latest SPC mesoanalysis) to support
the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms over the
high terrain. Coverage is greatest over the ADKs where there is
some enhancement from low-level southerly upslope flow around
the sfc high. So far, these showers/storms have not gotten close
to severe criteria, and with a lack of shear that should remain
the theme through the rest of the afternoon. However, we can`t
totally rule out an isolated stronger wind gusts or small hail
with steep low-level lapse rates and a well- mixed boundary
layer. PWATs aren`t overly impressive at around 1.2 to 1.3", but
with very slow storm motions some locally heavy rain is
possible with these showers/storms. However, lack of higher end
rainfall rates and antecedent dry conditions across portions of
the ADKs (except for northeastern Hamilton and northern Warren
Counties) should mitigate any flood threat. Any hydro "issues"
will likely be limited to just nuisance ponding of water in
low- lying and poor drainage areas. Temperatures this afternoon
will top out in the low to mid 80s for most areas, with
slightly elevated humidity along and north of I-90, with lower
dew points to the south.

Tonight...Any showers/storms should dissipate with the loss of
daytime heating and the upper trough/associated cold pool aloft
moving off to our east. Surface high pressure ridges into the
region from the east. With mainly clear skies and calm winds,
conditions will be favorable for radiational cooling with
temperatures expected to drop into the 50s to around 60. Patchy
fog will likely develop in some of the typical river valley
locations, as well as for areas that see a shower/storm this
afternoon or evening.

Saturday through Sunday night...We remain in a pattern with high
pressure centered to our east, with a smaller ridge of high
pressure extending back west over our region. Looking aloft,
upper ridging amplifies over the Great Lakes and Northeast. This
will put our region in an area of large-scale subsidence,
leading to dry conditions. Daytime highs will be in the mid 80s
for the valleys Saturday, and upper 80s to possibly near 90 on
Sunday as the ridge continues to build aloft. Humidity remain on
the low to moderate side. Favorable conditions for radiative
cooling each night should allow temperatures to drop into the
mid 50s to low 60s with patchy radiation fog in the typical
locations

Monday through Tuesday...The surface high slides off to the
E/SE, but we remain under the ridge aloft. S/SW return flow
around the periphery of the high will result in warm advection
into our region, and allow the humidity to begin to creep up as
well. Highs in the low 90s with dew points in the mid and upper
60s may lead to heat indices approaching advisory criteria (95F)
both days. Overnight lows will also be warmer, mainly in the
60s. While a very isolated afternoon shower or storm can`t
totally be ruled out with the increasingly warm/moist airmass,
most areas remain dry through at least Tuesday.

Wednesday and Thursday...The upper ridge shifts off to our east
as well, and upper troughing and a slow-moving cold front
approach from the west. While the timing and details still
remain uncertain this far out, there will be a better chance for
showers or thunderstorms Wednesday and/or Thursday, especially
if the frontal passage coincides with peak daytime heating. That
said, it is too early to determine if there will be any threat
for severe weather or heavy rain. Wednesday still looks to
feature highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and will be more humid
than Monday/Tuesday. If the cold front is slower, then the hot
and humid weather could persist into Thursday. Looking ahead to
days 8-14, the CPC is expecting continued above normal
temperatures, but near normal precip.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Flying conditions are currently VFR for all sites with mainly
clear skies in place. Isolated convection occurred this
afternoon into the early evening hours, but this activity is
already starting to wane, so won`t mention any precip at any of
the TAF sites. Dewpoints are fairly low for most places, so this
should help prevent widespread fog from developing overnight.
Still, local terrain effects may help produce some brief fog
towards daybreak around KGFL and KPSF, so will mention a short
period of IFR fog for these sites just prior to sunrise. Any fog
should dissipate shortly after daybreak, with VFR conditions
returning around 12z. Winds will be very light or calm through
the entire overnight hours.

During the day on Saturday, it will be VFR for all sites with a
mostly clear sky. Just few-sct cirrus clouds are expected with
no precip and light southerly winds.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Main
DISCUSSION...Main
AVIATION...Frugis