588
FXUS61 KALY 241017
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
617 AM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions again for today, with perhaps a
stray late day or evening thunderstorm for areas mainly north of
Interstate 90. Warm and humid conditions continue tonight into
Wednesday with a few showers and thunderstorms possible as a
cold front tracks southward. The front will stall south of the
region later in the week, bringing additional chances for
showers and thunderstorms along with cooler temperatures to the
region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Messages:

 - Dangerous heat continues Today, with feels-like temperatures
   reaching 105 to 110 degrees in some valley areas this
   afternoon.

 - A few potentially strong to severe thunderstorms possible
   late this afternoon/evening, mainly across the southern
   Adirondacks and upper Hudson Valley.

Discussion:

As of 615 AM EDT, clear skies across the region along with warm
and humid conditions. Temps range from the lower/mid 60s across
the eastern Catskills and some higher elevations of the SW
Adirondacks, to the upper 60s/lower 70s within the Mohawk/Hudson
Valleys.

Once any patchy fog burns off, expect mainly sunny skies along
with hot and humid conditions once again today. As a cold front
approaches from the north, a slightly greater low level pressure
gradient may allow for deeper mixing and somewhat breezy
conditions for this afternoon, especially from the Mohawk Valley
region northward where some wind gusts of 25-30 mph will be
possible. The deeper mixing and some downsloping may allow
dewpoints to drop to slightly lower values compared to Monday,
perhaps into the mid/upper 60s in some areas, with lower 70s
still expected within the Mohawk Valley region. Actual temps
should be similar to Monday, perhaps even a degree or two higher
in areas susceptible to downslope warming with a west/northwest
wind regime, such as the upper Hudson Valley and the mid Hudson
Valley. In these areas, some temps may reach the upper 90s,
perhaps approaching 100 in the mid Hudson Valley. Max temps
should reach the lower/mid 90s within the Mohawk Valley, and
mid/upper 90s across the Capital Region. Higher terrain areas
generally reaching the mid 80s to lower 90s.

With slightly lower dewpoints expected, Max Heat Indices might
be slightly less than Monday, but should still reach between
105 and 110 degrees within portions of the Hudson River Valley
and southern Litchfield County CT, and generally mid 90s to
lower 100s elsewhere except only in the lower 90s across the SW
Adirondacks.

Isolated thunderstorms may develop later this afternoon across
the southern Adirondacks, with some possibility extending into
the upper Hudson Valley and southern VT, especially after
sunset. Steep low level lapse rates/DCAPES near or above 1000
J/kg could allow for isolated instances of damaging wind gusts
where stronger mult-cell line segments occur. SPC maintains a
Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms for areas near and north
of I-90 for later today into tonight for these reasons.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible for areas mainly
north of I-90 through midnight, ahead of approaching cold front
from the north. Otherwise remaining warm and humid with lows
mainly in the upper 60s to lower/mid 70s.

Cold front settles southward across the region during Wednesday.
Overall forcing looks weak, mainly low level convergence with
in the vicinity of the front. This might produce
isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly for areas
south of I-90 in the afternoon/early evening. Steep low level
lapse rates may again allow for a few instances of damaging wind
gusts within any smaller bowing segments/clusters that develop,
however overall coverage looks limited. SPC has placed areas
mainly south of I-90 within a Marginal Risk for severe
thunderstorms for Wednesday. Otherwise, it will be warm/hot and
moderately humid, with greatest heat/humidity across the mid
Hudson Valley and NW CT, where max heat indices could reach
95-100. Heat Advisories will likely be issued for these areas
later today. Elsewhere, high temps in valleys generally 85-90
and 80-85 across higher elevations, with decreasing humidity
levels from north to south later in the day.

A few showers/thunderstorms could linger into Wednesday evening
across the mid Hudson Valley/NW CT, otherwise partly cloudy and
slightly cooler/less humid with lows mainly in the 60s for areas
near and south of I-90, with some 50s to the north.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Frontal system stalls south of the region Thursday-Saturday,
with waves of low pressure tracking along the boundary. This
keeps some showers/thunderstorms around, although there remains
uncertainty regarding overall coverage and northward extent of
rainfall. Depending on the track of a stronger wave along the
front, showers/thunderstorms may become more widespread late
Friday into Saturday. Temps should be cooler, with max temps
mainly in the 70s through Saturday, although should widespread
rainfall occur, max temps would be even cooler. Overnight lows
mainly in the 50s to lower 60s.

Warmer and more humid for Sunday into Monday, along with
isolated/scattered showers/thunderstorms, especially late Monday
with another cold front approaching from the west. Highs mainly
in the 80s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 12z/Wed...A ridge of high pressure will remain anchored
across the region bringing VFR conditions for much of the upcoming
TAF period. The daytime hours will just feature a few fair weather
cumulus around 5000 ft with some passing high clouds tonight,
especially at KGFL, as a cold front drops southward. Wind will
become westerly this morning with speeds increasing to 10-15 kt with
gusts 20-25 kt this afternoon. Wind will gradually diminish tonight
to less than 10 kt. There may be enough wind or clouds to prevent
much fog formation tonight.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Saturday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures for June 24:

June 24:
Albany, NY: 96 degrees set in 1943
Poughkeepsie, NY: 94 degrees set in 2013
Glens Falls, NY: 95 degrees in 1914

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for CTZ001.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for CTZ013.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ038>040-042-
     047-048-051-054-058-063-082.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ041-
     043-049-050-052-053-059>061-064>066-083-084.
MA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MAZ001-025.
VT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VTZ013>015.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL/Wasula
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...Rathbun
CLIMATE...Speciale