824
FXUS61 KALY 192030
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
430 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions persist into tomorrow before areas along
and east of the Hudson River could finally see some scattered
showers Saturday. Another dry stretch is anticipated for the end of
the weekend and into the beginning of the work week before chances
for showers increase for the middle of next week. And while
temperatures will remain warmer than normal into the first half of
the weekend, a cooling trend will drop temperatures closer to normal
beginning Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Mid-level ridging encompassing much of the region and adjacent
surface high pressure extending south and west into the Great
Lakes and western New York from Quebec has ensured another dry,
mostly clear to partly cloudy day across eastern New York and
western New England. Sufficient mixing and plenty of solar
radiation from minimal obstruction has allowed temperatures to
rise into the upper 70s to low 80s across the area this
afternoon, making it feel more like early Summer rather than
late.

While tranquility persists here, just off the New England Coast,
a coastal low pressure system has continued to organize and
deepen throughout the day as it slowly inches farther north and
slightly west. Being on the back side of this system, the only
true impacts that have been felt thus far as a result of it
have been the spreading of broken cirrus bands especially into
our New England zones. Of course, with subsidence juxtaposing
vertical motion, coverage has remained limited. However, through
tomorrow morning, clouds will gradually increase from east to
west as the aforementioned system tracks farther north and
retrogrades closer to the New England Coast. The most extensive
coverage will primarily lie to the east of the Hudson River
courtesy of upper ridging and surface high pressure remaining
nearby aiding to keep areas to the west mainly clear.
Radiational cooling will therefore aid in the development of
patchy fog for some sheltered and low-lying areas. Low
temperatures tonight will fall largely to the mid to upper 50s
across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The coastal low continues to spin just off the New England Coast
tomorrow, allowing clouds to continue to spread westward. Skies
are not anticipated to be completely obscured, however, as high
pressure and weak ridging in the Great Lakes continues to pose
counteracting subsidence. Therefore, coverage was maximized at
partly to mostly cloudy with less coverage to the west of the
Hudson and more to the east.

Additionally, throughout the day tomorrow, a side-door cold
front will gradually sink south towards the region from
southeast Quebec/northeast New England. Little additional
moisture than that which will be introduced from the cyclonic
flow of the adjacent low will accompany this front. And while
it will provide some additional forcing for ascent, little if
any precipitation is expected as a result of its southwestward
track into the region. It is possible that an isolated, light
shower or two develop in the Upper-Hudson Valley and/or Southern
Vermont tomorrow afternoon along its progression, however, with
forecast soundings showing fairly dry low-level conditions, its
possible that rain could evaporate before reaching the ground.
For now, excluded slight chance PoPs, though this could change
in coming updates. High temperatures tomorrow will be a few
degrees cooler than today with mid to upper 70s below 1000 ft
and upper 60s to low 70s both above and within much of our New
England counties courtesy of the anticipated, more extensive
cloud cover.

The aforementioned front continues to sink through the region
Friday night into Saturday morning, maintaining partly to mostly
cloudy skies overnight. As such, patchy fog will be highly
limited Friday night and lows will fall primarily to the low to
upper 50s. The aforementioned front will wash out throughout the
day Saturday, but with the coastal low still within reach, a
shortwave perturbation will rotate about its western periphery
and through the region, allowing for some scattered showers in
southern Vermont before daybreak. Additional showers are
possible east of the Hudson Saturday as the low sinks back south
and west, so maintained slight chance PoPs mainly for western
New England. A weak shortwave disturbance will also pass by to
our west throughout the day Saturday, but limited forcing should
keep showers at bay. Highs will be in the upper 60s to low 70s
with pockets of mid 70s possible in valley areas.

The coastal low will continue to track farther into the
Atlantic Saturday night, reinforcing widespread dry conditions
across the region in time for upper-level ridging to begin
approaching from the west. Low temperatures Saturday night will
fall to the low to upper 50s with pockets of upper 40s above
2000 ft.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Another stretch of dry weather is in store for at least the
first half of the long term forecast period with cooler
temperatures to accompany. Upper-level ridging begins to build
north and east from the Ohio Valley Sunday, becoming situated
across the region by Sunday night. Surface high pressure
extending south from Quebec will pair with ridging aloft to
ensure dry conditions through at least Monday. Highs Sunday will
range primarily from the upper 60s to low 70s before cooling to
the mid/upper 60s to low 70s with pockets of low 60s across
higher terrain Monday.

The remainder of the long term forecast period contains some
uncertainty as it pertains to a frontal system looking to
approach the region from the Great Lakes. Timing seems to be
the most significant difference amongst sources of guidance,
though the track of the low also remains somewhat uncertain at
this time. Some medium range models indicate the system`s impact
beginning as early as Tuesday morning where as others implicate
Tuesday night as the onset of showers. This system does,
however, look to be the next potential chance for more
widespread showers across the region Wednesday into Thursday.

High temperatures Tuesday through Thursday will be fairly
similar at mid/upper 60s to pockets of near or just above 70
with low 60s possible at higher elevations.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18z/Fri...VFR conditions are expected into the evening
hours at all TAF sites with just a few fair weather cumulus at
or above 5000 feet and some high cirrus. Mostly clear conditions
tonight will likely result in some patchy fog development where
some reduced vsbys are possible at all sites. The best window
for fog would be between 05z-12z/Fri. Any fog will then lift
by or shortly after 12z/Fri with a return to VFR conditions
with some fair weather cumulus and high cirrus once again. No
precipitation is expected through the TAF period.

North to northeasterly wind between 5-10 kt this afternoon will
trend light to calm tonight. Wind will then be east to
northeasterly at 5-10 kt on Friday.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gant
NEAR TERM...Gant
SHORT TERM...Gant
LONG TERM...Gant
AVIATION...Rathbun