291
FXUS61 KALY 290621
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
221 AM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A slight to low chance of showers and a few thunderstorms was
expanded across the forecast area late Sun/Sun night with an
upper level disturbance.

Will continue to monitor trends for the potential for some
strong to potentially severe thunderstorms towards the mid week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Mainly dry and seasonable weather is expected for most of the
weekend across eastern NY and western New England.

2) Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely next
week due to a stalled frontal boundary with the potential for
some strong to severe thunderstorms towards Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
High pressure continues to ridge in from southeastern Ontario
and the eastern Great Lakes Region this morning with cool temps
and some patchy fog especially north and west of the Capital
District with the clear skies and light to calm winds. The
radiative mist/fog should burn off quickly with the strong
subsidence associated with the anticyclone for seasonable temps
near to slightly below normal for late August. Max temps were
accepted close to the NBM with highs in the mid to upper 70s in
the major valleys and mid 60s to lower 70s over the hills and
mtns. Another cool night is expected with lows in the upper 40s
to mid 50s, but some mid and high clouds will increase Sat
night into Sun morning.

In the west northwest flow aloft, a short-wave will bring some
isolated-scattered showers and a few thunderstorms across the
western Adirondacks and a separate batch south of the Capital
Region during the afternoon on Sunday. We expanded the coverage
of showers/isolated thunderstorms across the entire forecast
area Sunday night, as the short-wave moves through. If faster
trends continue on the CAMs and short-range guidance, then we
may have to expand the coverage of scattered showers/isolated
t-storms Sunday afternoon. The latest HREF shows mean SBCAPEs
mainly below 500 J/kg which will limit updraft heights with 0-6
km shear 30-35 KTS. Not anticipating any severe thunderstorms at
this point with a slight uptick in humidity levels with
dewpoints in the mid 50s to lower/mid 60s with highs in the
upper 70s to lower 80s in the valleys and upper 60s to mid 70s
over the higher terrain with partly sunny conditions giving way
to mostly cloudy skies in the afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A wet and unsettled pattern sets up for next week with mid and
upper level ridging upstream over the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes
Region and Ontario with the high centered over the lower to mid
MS River Valley. A cold front begins to move southward across
upstate NY, New England and PA with the west/northwest flow
aloft. We have maintained close to the NBM for few showers
(isolated to widely scattered) on Monday mainly south and west
of the Capital Region. However, the cold front begins to slowly
lift back north/northeast, as a warm front Mon night into Tue
morning with increasing isentropic lift, and PWATs rising 1 to 2
STDEVs above normal. WPC has a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) in
the Day 3 ERO across the region. The locations for any locally
heavy rainfall varies in the guidance and ensembles, so low
confidence exists and with some dry and rain free days before
Monday, so the threat looks lower for flash flooding.

Tue through Wed...Multiple short-waves in the west to northwest
flow over the top of the upstream ridge could bring showers and
scattered thunderstorms. Some of the thunderstorms could be on
the strong to severe side, as the old SPC Day 4 to 8 graphic
highlights 15% probabilities of a severe threat for Wed-Wed
night with strong mid-level jet aloft of 50 KT or greater,
dewpoints in the 60s, ample deep shear (30-40 KT) and
instability on the moderate to potentially large side on some
of the medium range guidance and ensembles. The area highlighted
with the 15% probs is south and west of the Capital Region.
Very challenging to time any severe threat this far out. We will
continue to monitor trends over the next several days. For Tue
and Wed, WPC has a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) in the ERO for
an isolated flash threat with periods of locally heavy rainfall
with any MCS. The latest 24-hr NBM probabilities for >1" of
rainfall across eastern NY and western New England by 12Z/Thu
are in the 25-50% range. Timing and placements of the
disturbances still vary, which makes the rainfall totals
challenging to pinpoint with low confidence this far out. Stayed
close to the NBM/WPC guidance with PoPs in the 55-70% range Tue
into Wed with a slight to low chance of thunderstorms. Max
temps Tue through Thu will be seasonable in the 70s to lower 80s
with cooler temps over the higher terrain with lows in the 50s
and 60s at night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday... VFR conditions are expected to prevail across
all terminals for this TAF period. There is potential for some
mist/fog development in the early morning hours today at KGFL,
which could bring brief drops in vis and cigs to IFR, reflected
by a TEMPO group. Otherwise, mostly clear skies with a few fair
weather cumulus are expected to persist throughout the day.
Winds will remain light overall, slightly strengthening in the
afternoon, before weakening again after sunset.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...23