998
FXUS61 KALY 061748
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
148 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected today with a stalled
front over the area. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing
heavy downpours and damaging winds. Although showers and
thunderstorms will linger into Saturday, drier and less humid
weather is anticipated for Sunday with comfortable conditions.
More showers and thunderstorms are expected for much of next
week with seasonable temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Messages:

 -Widespread showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall today
  will lead to an increased risk for flash flooding across parts
  of the Catskills, Capital Region, Berkshires and southern
  Vermont. WPC has a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4) for these areas
  and a Flood Watch for Flash Flooding was expanded to include
  Ulster, Bennington and Windham Counties.

 -The strongest thunderstorms may be capable of producing wind
  damage and hail this afternoon into this evening, especially
  across the southern Taconics, Berkshires and northwest
  Connecticut, where SPC has a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5).

Discussion:

As of 1257 PM EDT...A front remains stalled across the region.
There are rain showers over the northwestern part of the
forecast area associated with a wave on the front, with one
shower over Hamilton County producing lightning a few radar
scans ago. Visible satellite imagery shows that the southeast
part of the forecast area has cleared out.

Latest SPC mesoanalysis shows surface-based instability of 500
to nearly 3000 j/kg over southeast part of area where sun has
broken out. Since the best upper level dynamics will be well
northwest of the region, 0-6 km bulk shear will be limited
today. Values will range from around 20 kts over southern areas
to around 30 kts for northern areas, peaking this afternoon into
early evening hours. While there isn`t a great overlap of
instability/shear, there still should be enough for some loosely
organized thunderstorms for this afternoon into this evening.
CAMs (both the 3km HRRR and NAMNest) suggests storms develop
over Mohawk Valley south to Catskills and move in a general ESE
direction across the southern part of the area this afternoon
into the evening and should be east of our forecast area by 9pm.
Some isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible, especially
for areas that see the best instability (Berkshires, mid Hudson
Valley and NW CT), where storms may be the tallest. Some hail
may occur again today within the tallest storms.

In addition, there will be the potential for heavy downpours
today. Mean PWAT values from the NAEFS exceed 1.50 inches this
afternoon, which is about 1-2 STD above normal. SPC HREF shows 3
hr QPF probability-matched mean precip amounts of 1.50 to 2.50
inches in a band from the Catskills northeast across the Capital
Region into the Berkshires. Although there has been some dry
weather recently, high rainfall rates may allow for isolated to
scattered flash flooding today, especially in urban and low
lying locations and poor drainage areas may see ponding of
water. Expanded the Flood Watch for Flash Flooding from
Schoharie Green and Ulster counties northeastward into the
Berkshires and southern Vermont, including the Capital Region
from Noon to Midnight. The main impact times look to be from the
about the mid afternoon through the early evening hours, when
CAMs show the heaviest downpours moving west to east across the
area.

With the clouds and precip, temps will be a little cooler over
northwestern areas compared to recent days, but southeastern
areas where the most sun is expected will reach the low to mid
80s.

By the late evening, there should be break in the precip for
most of the overnight hours, although it will remain mild and
muggy with the front just west of the area. Skies will remain
partly to mostly cloudy tonight with patchy fog developing, with
lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Another round of precip is
expected for Saturday morning as the boundary shifts back
eastward.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As a shortwave trough moves across southern Canada, the surface
boundary will begin making eastward progress once again on
Saturday. Another round of showers and embedded thunderstorms
are expected, mainly for early in the day, as the front heads
across the area from west to east. There could continue to be
some heavy downpours early on Saturday and some additional
flooding can`t be ruled out, especially for spots that saw heavy
rainfall on Friday. WPC has a marginal risk for excessive
rainfall for eastern parts of the area. Temps will only be in
the 70s on Saturday with a mostly cloudy sky, although some
clearing is expected for later in the day behind the departing
front.

In the wake of the boundary, less humid air will pour in the
region for Saturday night into Sunday. Dewpoints will drop back
into the 50s. Sunday will be the best day on the weekend
(weather-wise) with a partly sunny sky and dry conditions. Temps
will be comfortable in the 70s as well. Some clouds may start to
increase by Sunday night along with a few light showers, mainly
for southwestern areas and lows in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected during the
long term period as a slow moving upper level low moves from the
Great Lakes towards the Northeast, especially for the early to
middle portion of the week. While some showers and thunderstorms
are possible each day in the long term, it appears Tuesday may
have the greatest coverage of precip thanks to the moist
southerly flow ahead of the approaching upper low. Some heavy
downpours may be possible once again and WPC already has parts
of the area in the Marginal Outlook for Excessive Rainfall for
Day 5 (Tuesday). Otherwise, it will be fairly seasonable for
early June with temps in the 70s to low 80s and lows in the 50s
to low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

While VFR conditions prevail at the terminals this afternoon, an
area of rain continues to track eastward across the Mohawk
Valley and southern Adirondacks towards the terminals. Ahead of
this organized rain, isolated thunderstorms are already
developing. Storms are expected to increase in coverage through
18 - 20 UTC and we maintained the TEMPO group at all terminals
mainly through 00 - 01 UTC for potential IFR vis and ceilings
from thunderstorms and heavy rain. Not enough confidence to
include enhanced wind gusts in the TEMPO group but should a
storm become severe, brief wind gusts up to 30 - 50mph+ is not
ruled out.

Showers and storms taper off after 00 - 01 UTC from west to east
with rain and storms exiting POU and PSF likely last. Clouds
then looks to partially clear this evening (03 - 07 UTC) which
can support brief fog/mist/low stratus resulting in IFR
cigs/MVFR vis especially for terminals that see appreciable
rainfall this afternoon/evening. With a frontal boundary stalled
overhead, additional rain looks to redevelop along the front
early tomorrow morning mainly around the Catskills and increase
in coverage as the rain spreads north/westward through the
morning. Additional MVFR vis/ceilings are possible as the rain
becomes more widespread through the end of the TAF period.
Highest confidence for rain and MVFR flying at ALB, PSF and POU.
GFL may remain north/west of the boundary.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ047>054-058>061-
     063-064.
     Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ032-033-
     042.
MA...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for MAZ001-025.
VT...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for VTZ013>015.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SND/Frugis
NEAR TERM...SND/Frugis
SHORT TERM...SND/Frugis
LONG TERM...SND/Frugis
AVIATION...Speciale