815
FXUS61 KALY 031901
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
201 PM EST Sat Jan 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Extended chance POPs into Herkimer and Hamilton County with
slight chance POPs in the Mohawk Valley and parts of the
Capital District through 21 - 00 UTC today/tonight as the lake
effect band off Lake Ontario continues to extend inland due to
persistent westerly flow and sufficient lake-induced instability.
Also, given increased confidence in upslope snow persisting in
western New England and the Taconics late tonight into tomorrow
morning, we extended chance and slight chance POPs and increased
snowfall amounts slightly to 1 to 3 inches.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. A pair of weak clipper systems will bring widespread light
snow showers to the region tonight into early Sunday and again
Monday into Monday evening with bitterly cold temperatures
likely Sunday night into the Monday morning commute.

2. Increasing confidence for freezing rain and snow resulting
in slippery travel Tuesday night with growing confidence for
temperatures to trend above normal for the middle to end of
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Lake effect snow showers continue to extend off Lake Ontario
into the southwest Adirondacks today with an additional inch of
snow likely. However, a shortwave tracking through the Great
Lakes tonight looks to deepen as it approaches the Northeast,
resulting in increasing height falls and weak mid and upper
level warm air/moisture advection. The strongest forcing arrives
shortly after 06 UTC tonight through 12 UTC which looks to be
the period when the more widespread snow showers overspread
eastern NY and western New England. With most forcing in the mid
and upper levels and this being a rather moisture starved
northern stream shortwave, snowfall intensity should remain
fairly light overnight. However, high res guidance continues to
suggest that stronger forcing ahead of the incoming trough axis
combined with upslope enhancements in the Taconics and western
New England tonight should result in steadier snowfall rates
with snow showers lingering here until closer to 12-15 UTC
Sunday. Overall QPF amounts remain low as messaged in the
previous forecast with 0.5 to 2 inches expected through the
region which can still lead to slippery travel, especially on
any untreated surfaces. Slightly higher snow totals expected in
the Taconics/western New England ranging 1 to 3 inches. Winds
turn breezy tomorrow afternoon/early evening as high pressure
builds eastward resulting in wind gusts up to 20-30mph which
can lead to blowing/drifting snow and help snow recovered
cleared roads/sidewalks.

High pressure finally builds overhead Sunday night leading to
clearing skies and decreasing winds. With northwesterly flow
advecting a colder air mass into the Northeast, there is
increasing confidence in overnight temperatures dropping into at
least the single digits throughout the region. In fact, probabilistic
guidance shows 60 to 90% confidence for temperatures to fall
below 0 in the southwest Adirondacks, Upper Hudson Valley, and
southern VT where skies remain clear the longest. Current
forecast shows these areas dropping between -15 to 0 degrees. While
this is certainly very cold, the lack of wind will likely
prevent the need for any cold weather advisories. Regardless,
for those heading back to work and school after the winter
break, we encourage everyone to bundle up for their Monday
morning commute given such bitterly cold temperatures.

Yet another weak shortwave approaches late Monday morning into
Monday afternoon with a period of an initial period of
isentropic lift resulting in an area of light snow overspreading
eastern NY and western New England with light snow lingering
not only through the Monday afternoon commute but even into
Monday evening. While overall moisture and forcing is rather
weak, forcing extending through the low and mid-levels and
lingering for a longer duration looks to support slightly higher
QPF amounts compared to the Saturday night disturbance.
Therefore, expecting slightly higher snowfall amounts ranging 1
to 2 inches throughout much of eastern NY and western New
England; however, probabilistic guidance shows near/under 20%
chance for snowfall amounts to exceed 2 inches. There is even a
75 to 90% chance for snowfall amounts in the immediate Capital
District and the mid-Hudson Valley to remain under 1" due to
southwest flow aloft downsloping off the Catskills and weaker
forcing. Even still, light snow during the Monday P.M commute
can result in slippery travel conditions for this first day back
to work/school after the holiday break.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Increasing confidence for a period of snow and freezing rain
Tuesday night as yet another disturbance approaches but this
time, tracks to our west up the Saint Lawrence River Valley.
High pressure anchored in eastern Quebec will likely support cold
temperatures at the start of the event Tuesday evening with
guidance showing signs of the classic cold air damming
signature. As increasing isentropic lift Tuesday night allows
precipitation to overspread the region, the chilly sfc
temperatures will likely support snow to start before the
strengthening southwesterly flow aloft allows the warm nose to
advance northward leading to a transition to wintry mix
including freezing rain. Given the general consensus for the
sfc low to remain to our west, there was enough confidence to
include freezing rain in the forecast for Tuesday night in
collaboration with neighboring WFOs. Slippery travel is
therefore expected for the Wed A.M commute. Depending on how
quickly the warm nose advances northward and southerly flow can
scour out the low- level cold air, we should see a transition to
plain rain on Wednesday but if temperatures remain colder
longer, freezing rain and wintry mix may continue later into the
day on Wednesday. Highest chance wintry mix to linger is for
areas mainly north of I-90 where we maintained rain/snow mix
into Wed afternoon.

Then, a warming trend is expected for the second half of the
week into the weekend as large scale ridging develops over the
Eastern CONUS and southwesterly flow advects a milder air mass
into the region. In fact, the latest 6-10 day outlook from the
Climate Prediction Center shows 80-90% chance for the eastern
CONUS to be above normal from Jan 8-12. We will have to maintain
a close eye on a parade of disturbances for late this week into
the weekend as latest guidance shows many tracking to our west
which would maintain warm air advection and potentially aid in
ripening the existing snow pack. Given ice on many area rivers,
we may need to also monitor how much precipitation and snow
melt is expected to flow into area rivers/streams.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18z Sunday...VFR conditions prevail across all terminals
this afternoon with some very light, remnant lake effect flurries
scattered about. Light snow actually appeared in the KALB METAR last
hour, but because of the very light, dry nature of the
precipitation, it did not pose any impact to visibility or ceiling
height.

Throughout the remainder of the afternoon and into this evening, VFR
conditions will remain in place, though clouds will begin to expand
ahead of an incoming clipper disturbance. Ceilings will eventually
reach MVFR thresholds, especially during periods of light snow early
tomorrow morning resulting from said disturbance. For the time
being, the anticipated period of snow was incorporated into the TAFs
by way of PROB30 groups as there continues to be some uncertainty,
not just in the timing and magnitude of snowfall, but in the very
occurrence of snow itself. That said, confidence has increased with
this issuance in the occurrence of light snow for a few hours almost
everywhere early tomorrow morning. And while forecast soundings
indicate MVFR ceilings, visibility may drop down into the IFR
category within any periods of snow.

Once snow has concluded, a swift return to VFR conditions tomorrow
morning is expected. Such conditions will remain steady through the
remainder of the 18z cycle. Winds throughout the period will be
light and primarily prevail out of the west to northwest at
sustained speeds under 10 kt. That said, this afternoon, there is a
bit of a breeze at KALB and KPSF that will carry through to this
evening. Sustained speeds here will reach just above 10 kt with
occasional gusts around 20 kt.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...SHSN.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...SHSN.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION...37