969
FXUS61 KALY 280634
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
234 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Some adjustments to QPF, aligning closely with latest WPC
forecast. This gives amounts as high as 6-8" in isolated
portions of the eastern Catskills, and 3-4" across portions of
Litchfield County in NW CT.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Multiple rounds of showers/thunderstorms will produce heavy
rain this afternoon through Wednesday, especially areas south of
I-90 where a Flood Watch is in effect for Flash Flooding for
this afternoon through Wednesday afternoon.

2) Despite areas of heavy rainfall, current river forecasts
suggest threat for river flooding is low at this time. However,
trends will need to be watched, as amounts over 5" would
increase the threat, especially across the SE Catskills.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Upper level trough approaches from west today, bringing increasingly
upper level diffluent flow and low level convergence which will
allow for greater coverage of showers/thunderstorms during this
afternoon and evening. Mean cloud layer winds look to be
oriented nearly parallel to the low-level jet through 09-12 UTC
Wednesday and with freezing heights 12 - 13kft and tall skinny
CAPE soundings, efficient warm rain processes capable of
producing heavy downpours will be at play. The unidirectional
flow also suggests training convection or heavy rain repeatedly
impacting a given area, raising concerns for flash flooding. The
overall dynamics with this event are quite impressive for July
with the NAEFS showing height anomalies 3 to 4 standard
deviations below normal as the parent trough closes off into
Wednesday with integrated water vapor transport 3-4 standard
deviations above normal due to the high V-wind component
anomalies and PWATs.

Latest HREFs suggest 3-hour probs for >1" rainfall as high as
70-90% for areas near and west of the Hudson River between
21Z/Tue-00Z/Wed, and 30-70% elsewhere. Similar 3-hour probs for
>3" rainfall are 10-30% across the SE Catskills/mid Hudson
Valley after 18Z/Tue, and including NW CT after 03Z/Wed,
highlighting areas with greatest chances of heaviest rainfall.

It appears that the axis of heaviest rainfall will initially
set up for areas near and west of the Hudson River this
afternoon/early evening, before shifting east toward the
southern Taconics, Berkshires and Litchfield County later this
evening through Wednesday morning. This axis of heavy rain with
embedded thunderstorms may then lift north into southern VT
during Wednesday morning. Additional slow-moving
showers/thunderstorms within a developing deformation zone are
expected during Wednesday across the region, again producing
locally heavy rainfall. Heavy rainfall should finally taper off
Wednesday night, however some showers could linger into Thursday
and even Friday, especially areas south and east of Albany.

In addition to locally heavy rainfall, will have to watch for
isolated stronger thunderstorms this afternoon/early evening,
especially across portions of the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT,
where 00Z/HRRR suggests MU CAPES potentially reach as high as
1500-2000 J/kg. Can not rule out isolated strong wind gusts from
any wet microbursts that occur in these areas.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Latest HEFS (Ensemble River Forecasts) still suggest only low
to very low chances (<10%) of rivers rising above minor flood
stage for a few points in the eastern Catskills and southern VT,
such as the Williams River at Rockingham and Esopus Creek at
Cold Brook. Will have to watch trends with updated NERFC river
forecasts today, in case the higher end of QPF (exceeding 5")
becomes more likely, which would then increase the potential for
at least a few points reaching or exceeding minor flood stage.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions start the TAF period with periods of patchy fog
at KPSF and KGFL through 11z. Kept prevailing VFR conditions
with IFR conditions in TEMPO groups through 11z as visibilities
will likely fluctuate with any clear skies this morning at KGFL
and KPSF. Light and variable winds continue through 12z.

Our story shifts from VFR conditions to gradually lowering to
MVFR between 13z and 18z due to low cloud ceilings as an
approaching weather system arrives. After 18z, IFR/LIFR
conditions are forecasted to prevail for all TAF sites through
the end of the TAF period due to low cloud ceilings.
Visibilities will fluctuate in IFR and LIFR conditions after
18z as well due to periods of rainfall this afternoon into the
overnight hours.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Flood Watch from this afternoon through Wednesday evening for
     CTZ001-013.
NY...Flood Watch from this afternoon through Wednesday evening for
     NYZ058>061-063>066.
MA...Flood Watch from this afternoon through Wednesday evening for
     MAZ001-025.
VT...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...24/31
AVIATION...05