074
FXUS61 KALY 071940
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
340 PM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will pass through the region
overnight with a line of snow showers.  Behind the front, windy and
colder weather is expected on Tuesday with some additional snow
showers and flurries.  Temperatures will remain below normal for the
middle of the week before another storm system returns the threat
for widespread rain towards the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Key Message:

-Strong cold front passing through the region overnight will
 bring gusty snow showers and much colder temperatures

Discussion:

As of 340 PM EDT...A slow moving frontal boundary extends off
the mid Atlantic coast and offshore into the western Atlantic
Ocean. This front, along with waves of low pressure moving along
the boundary, have been allowing for widespread clouds through
the day, as well as some periods of light precip (mainly rain,
with some wet snow mixed in at times). With this front nearby,
plenty of lower clouds have been streaming across the area from
southwest through the day, keeping cloudy conditions in place.
Temps have only been in the 30s to low 40s for today with cloudy
conditions and occasional light precip.

Upstream of the region, another frontal boundary is moving
across the Great Lakes and heading towards the area for tonight.
There are some brief breaks in the clouds between the two
systems, so there will likely be a few hours later this evening
where it briefly clear outs a little bit, especially for
northwestern areas.

The strong northern stream frontal boundary will be moving west
to east across the region for late tonight (after midnight). A
broken line of snow showers (perhaps mixed with rain showers for
some valley areas) will accompany the front as it moves across
the area. With this being the late night hours, there doesn`t
appear to be any instability ahead of the boundary (at least
according to the 12z HREF or NAM), but the forcing is rather
strong, so would anticipate a linear line of precip just ahead
of the front. With the expectation for a brief burst of precip
and gusty winds, visibility may briefly be reduced this late
night precip. Surface temps are likely holding into the 30s
ahead of the front, but look to drop below freezing behind the
boundary, although many ground temps may still be above
freezing. Considering all this, while widespread impactful snow
squalls are not anticipated due to the early morning hour, there
could be some locally slick conditions and hazardous travel
between 2 AM and 6 AM across the region as this front moves
across the area from west to east. Snow accumulation will mainly
be just a coating to an inch, generally on grassy and non-paved
surfaces. Behind the front, westerly winds will be increasing
and start to become rather gusty. Temps will be falling into the
20s to low 30s by daybreak Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

-Wind Advisory in effect for Mohawk & Schoharie Valleys,
 Helderbergs, Capital Region, Taconics and Berkshires due to
 expected wind gusts up to 50 mph on Tuesday.

-Below normal temperatures expected Tuesday into Wednesday

Discussion:

Behind the strong cold front, windy and cold conditions are
expected through the day on Tuesday. Good mixing and a strong
pressure gradient in place will allow for winds to gust 30 to 50
mph across the region, especially for the mid morning through
early evening hours. The strongest gusts will be channeled
through the Mohawk Valley and Capital Region towards the
Berkshires, where a Wind Advisory has been issued. In addition,
temps won`t be rising much, due to the strong cold advection in
place. Most places will be holding steady through the day in the
20s to mid 30s, making it feel not much like April at all,
especially considering the gusty winds. Some additional snow
showers and flurries are expected through the day due to the
cyclonic flow around the upper level trough. Some lake
enhancement and upslope flow will help squeeze out some
additional snow showers over the western Adirondacks, where a
few inches may accumulate. Elsewhere, just a coating is expected
due to the passing light snow showers and flurries, especially
for areas west of the Capital Region. Skies will remain partly
to mostly cloudy, with the most breaks in valley areas across
southern parts of the region.

The threat for snow showers and flurries should start to
diminish through Tuesday night, along with the winds starting to
calm down. Some clearing will occur, although lake enhanced
clouds will still continue for the Catskills and Schoharie
County. Lows will fall into the teens and 20s.

It will be fairly dry for Wednesday into Wednesday night, but
temps will remain below normal. Highs only in the 30s and 40s on
Wednesday, but will fall into the 20s on Wednesday night. Skies
will be partly to mostly sunny on Wednesday and some clouds will
start to increase for Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Message:

-Unsettled weather late in the week for Friday into the weekend.
 NBM probabilities for greater than 0.50" rainfall are above 50
 percent for the entire forecast area.

Discussion:

The next storm system will be approaching for the late week
into the first part of the weekend. This system will be
approaching from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley for later
Thursday into Friday and may be closing over the region. A
prolonged period of rain is expected for the late week. There
could be some mixing with snow at the highest terrain, but most
areas will only be seeing plain rain with this system as temps
rise closer to seasonable levels. There looks to be a steady
round of precip late Thursday into Friday and then again later
Friday into early Saturday. Total QPF looks to exceed a half
inch (high probability of at least 0.50" across much of the area
with NBM values over 50 percent). There is some potential for
total rainfall to exceed an inch, with NBM probabilities around
30 percent for southern areas. This could lead to some hydro
issues depending on where the heaviest precip occurs. Drier
weather looks to return for later in the weekend into early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 18z Tuesday...Flying conditions vary across all terminals
this afternoon with VFR to IFR conditions observed due to light mist
and low ceiling heights. Though there remains some scattered showers
around, very little is reaching the ground, so this poses little
impact.

Low ceiling heights will dominate the 18z Forecast period ahead of
an incoming cold front. Additional batches of snow showers or a mix
of rain and snow is expected tonight as a result, maintaining
primarily MVFR to IFR conditions overnight through tomorrow morning.
Though there is some uncertainty with the timing and duration of
precipitation, the greatest likelihood of the more widespread and
longer duration ranges between 06-11z tomorrow morning at
KGFL/KALB/KPSF. KPOU should remain outside the risk zone for
precipitation during this time, but additional showers could impact
this terminal late this afternoon into this evening between 21-23z.
Winds throughout the 18z TAF period will begin out of the southeast
before backing to the northwest by period end at sustained speeds
falling below 10 kt for the most part. However, tomorrow could
become breezy especially at KALB/KPOU/KPSF with sustained speeds
ranging from 15-20 kt and gusts of 20-35kt.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 33 kts. Slight Chance of SHSN.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Friday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 10 PM EDT Tuesday for NYZ038>040-
     047>054-061.
MA...Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 10 PM EDT Tuesday for MAZ001-025.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Gant