804
FXUS61 KALY 150540
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
140 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
We remain on track to receive a widespread rainfall late Sunday
into Monday, but the overall flash flood threat looks isolated.
A Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall is in place for all of
eastern New York and western New England.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Sunny, pleasant weather will start the weekend, then the next
system brings a widespread rainfall and some thunderstorms
Sunday afternoon into early Monday.

2) Aside from a system bringing a few showers and thunderstorms
late Wednesday into Thursday, no significant, impactful weather
is expected next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A pleasant start to the weekend is in store with high pressure
over the area. Highs today reach the lower 70s to lower 80s. A
mostly clear sky and light to calm winds will allow for
temperatures tonight to once again fall into the 40s and 50s.
Patchy fog is possible once again in some valley areas.

Sunday will start out dry as well, but clouds will increase
throughout the day ahead of a progressive upper shortwave and
surface low pressure system approaching from the west. This
system will bring widespread rain showers along with some
rumbles of thunder with some elevated instability present.
Timing of precipitation looks to be Sunday afternoon into the
early evening and continuing overnight. Despite high
precipitable water values (1.50 to 2.00 inches), the progressive
nature of this system and lack of instability should keep any
convective elements more isolated in coverage. While most areas
could receive as much as 0.50 and 1.00 inches of rain, some
higher amounts (likely up to 2 inches) can occur where any
convective elements occur. Regardless, some ponding of water on
roads and areas of poor drainage are possible along with
isolated instances of flash flooding, especially for any areas
that see repeated convective, heavier showers. The latest WPC
outlook has all of eastern New York and western New England in a
Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall. A few
showers and thunderstorms will linger into Monday before the
system fully departs.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Much of next week will feature dry and pleasant weather across
eastern New York and western New England. The main weather
feature for next week (after Monday) is an approaching cold
front which could bring a few showers and thunderstorms late
Wednesday into Thursday. Moisture, initially, with this system
looks minimal so overall shower coverage may be more isolated to
scattered. The timing of this system will likely prevent severe
weather concerns as well. High temperatures for the early to
middle part of next week will be in the mid-70s to mid-80s
before falling back into the upper 60s to upper 70s by the end
of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06z Sunday...High confidence in LIFR/VLIFR conditions
associated with fog at KALB/KGFL/KPSF through 12z, as these
conditions are already occurring and are expected to remain in
place the rest of the night. Confidence in fog is lower at KPOU,
as it did not rain there yesterday. So will continue to mention
TEMPO for possible MVFR vsby with occasional mist. Fog may take
some time to dissipate, with IFR conditions persisting until
around 13z at KALB/KGFL/KPSF. Once the fog lifts, VFR conditions
will prevail through the rest of the day. Winds will initially
be near calm, becoming north-northwest at 4-8 kt by late this
morning.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...07