871
FXUS61 KALY 042124
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
424 PM EST Tue Nov 4 2025

.UPDATE...
As of 424 PM EST...The Wind Advisory for the northern Taconics
of NY including the Rensselaer Plateau and the Berkshires has
expired. A few gusts around 45 mph occurred over the Berkshires
at KPSF and KAQW. The skies continue to clear and the winds
subside with the weakening sfc pressure gradient and the loss of
the diurnal heating. A few gusts 30-40 mph may occur prior to 6
pm, but the threat of gusts 46-57 mph has diminished as high
pressure builds in from the OH Valley and Mid Atlantic Region
tonight.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions with mostly clear skies with winds
subsiding tonight. The weather turns active late Wednesday afternoon
into Thursday morning as a strengthening low pressure system moves
across the area. Showers and isolated thunderstorms with gusty winds
expected into Wednesday evening, followed by strong winds and
mountain snow showers Wednesday night into Thursday morning. More
tranquil, but cooler weather returns by Thursday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

- Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms
  Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening for most of the
  region except for the Adirondacks and Lake George Region. The
  main threat is damaging wind gusts.

- High Wind Watch Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning
  excluding the Adirondacks and Lake George area. Winds could
  gust between 55-65 mph in the watch area.

- Wind Advisory through 4 PM today northern Rensselaer and
  Berkshire Counties and Wednesday afternoon to Thursday morning
  for the western and southern Adirondacks and Lake George area.
  Winds gust between 45-55 mph expected in the advisory area.

Discussion:

Still breezy this afternoon with a decent pressure gradient in
place and good mixing resulting in gusts mainly in the 25-40 mph
range. Some gusts of 45-50 mph may still occur across the
Rensselaer Plateau into the Berkshires through this afternoon,
where a Wind Advisory remains in effect. Satellite imagery
indicating some clouds around, especially over the higher
terrain along with a few sprinkles over the mountains. Winds and
clouds will decrease this evening into tonight, as surface
ridging extending north from high pressure centered over the
Carolinas builds in. Lows will be near normal ranging from upper
20s to mid 30s.

Wed starts out rather quiet as the surface ridge shifts east of
our area, while a low pressure system begins to deepen as it
moves across the Great Lakes. The surface cyclone will continue
to rapidly deepen as it track east into northern NY and New
England Wed evening, with an associated potent short wave aloft.
With the cyclone tracking just north of our area, the system`s
cold front will cross the region late Wed evening. Winds aloft
will increase substantially as well, with 850 mb wind anomalies
of +2 to +3 STDEV. Multiple hazards are expected with this
system. The first is the potential for isolated severe storms
associated with low-topped convection ahead of and along the
cold front. There looks to be sufficient SBCAPE (~100-200 J/Kg)
to produce tall enough updrafts to access strong winds aloft
(60+ kt), along with steep low/mid level lapse rates to promote
mixing. Most of the area (outside of the Adirondacks) continues
to be in a Marginal Risk(level 1 of 5) for severe storms in the
low CAPE/high shear environment. Once the cold front sweeps
across the area and low pressure deepens further near coastal
New England, winds will strengthen considerably across the area.
Cold advection will promote deeper mixing, with 50-60 kt winds
near the expected top of the mixed layer ~850-800 mb from
forecast soundings. Isallobaric wind component will aide in
strong wind potential. Enough confidence to issue a High Wind
Watch(gusts of 55- 65 mph) for most of the area except for the
Adirondacks and Lake George area, where a Wind Advisory has been
issued(gusts of 45-55 mph). Finally, upslope rain showers will
change to snow showers over the Adirondacks and S. Greens
overnight into early Thu morning, where 1-2" of snow will
accumulate in some spots.

Winds will still be strong/gusty into Thu morning, but will
start to gradually decrease as the storm system pulls farther
away into the Canadian Maritimes. The High Wind Watch/Advisory
goes through 10 am. As high pressure approaches from the west,
subsidence will result in any mountain snow showers ending
during the morning. NW winds will still be breezy, gusting to
25-35 mph through much of the day with below normal
temperatures(30s mountains, 40s valleys). High pressure builds
east across the mid Atlantic region Thu night, bringing mainly
clear skies, lighter winds and chilly temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Message:

- Rain likely Friday night into Saturday morning again Sunday
  into early Monday. Some high elevation snow may occur.

Discussion:

Fri looks mainly dry, although some showers will approach late
in the day mainly north/west of Albany as the next northern
stream system approaches. Temperatures warm back to near normal,
with a developing southerly breeze Fri afternoon. Clouds will
increase especially during the afternoon. Showers become likely
Fri night into early Sat morning as low pressure tracks east
into Quebec and drags a cold front across our area. This system
will not be nearly as strong as the Wed system, so minimal
impacts are expected. Guidance showing faster timing with this
system exiting Sat, so much of the day looks mainly dry now
with seasonable temperatures.

The next low pressure system then quickly approaches and moves
across the area Sun into Sun night, although there is low
confidence in the exact track along with uncertainty in phasing
northern/southern stream energy. Bottom line is precip is
looking more likely, with the track determining how much if any
wintry precip occurs. At this time the best chance for any snow
looks to be across parts of the Adirondacks, but again this is
low confidence and highly dependent on the eventual storm track.

A colder air mass with below normal temperatures associated
with a deep/broad upper level trough expected to settle in
across the Northeast early next week. Depending on the wind
directions and interactions with any short wave disturbances,
this pattern could result in the first lake effect snow of the
season in favored areas.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 18z Wednesday...VFR conditions prevail across all
terminals this afternoon with gusty winds and fair weather
cumulus noted across eastern New York and western New England.
Gusty northwest winds will remain prominent through this
afternoon before gradually decreasing this evening and into the
overnight period, but expect a breeze to persist. Sustained wind
speeds will range from 15 to 20 kt this afternoon with gusts of
30 to 40 kt. Late this evening and through the overnight, gusts
will be lost and sustained speeds will lower to 5 to 10 kt. By
tomorrow morning, winds will also back from the northwest to the
southwest. Clouds will decrease this evening as well into the
first portion of the night but redevelop ahead of an incoming
system over the second half. Re-developed ceilings will remain
within VFR thresholds, however, and due to both increased cloud
cover and a persistent breeze, fog development will be
mitigated.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Very High Operational Impact.
High Winds Up To 52 kts. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 38 kts. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of RA.
Friday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite RA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely RA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...High Wind Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
     morning for CTZ001-013.
NY...High Wind Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
     morning for NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082-084.
     Wind Advisory from 4 PM Wednesday to 10 AM EST Thursday for
     NYZ032-033-042-043-083.
MA...High Wind Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
     morning for MAZ001-025.
VT...High Wind Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
     morning for VTZ013>015.

&&

$$

UPDATE...15
SYNOPSIS...07
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...37