337
FXUS61 KALY 300541
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
141 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions will continue through Wednesday.
A cold front will bring isolated to widely scattered showers
and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. A wave of low pressure
tracking along the front may bring a soaking rainfall to parts
of the area Wednesday night into Friday. A large area of high
pressure will then bring a period of dry and pleasant weather
with low humidity later Friday through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Messages:

 - Hot and humid conditions continue through Wednesday. Heat
   Advisories are in effect for some areas through Wednesday.
   Heat advisory for Wednesday expanded northward.

 - There is the potential for a period of heavy rainfall for
   parts of the area Thursday into Thursday night.

Clockwise flow around a high pressure heat dome over the
southern plains will continue to push hot and humid air into the
northeast into Wednesday. The combination of 60s-70s dewpoints
and air temperatures in the 90s will result in widespread
feels- like temperatures from the mid-90s to lower 100s this
afternoon. A Heat Advisory is in effect for the Hudson Valley
into Washington County as well as into the Mohawk Valley,
central and southern Taconics and Litchfield County, CT this
afternoon. Temperatures should fall back into the upper 50s to
upper 60s tonight under a mostly clear sky. Some patchy fog will
likely develop in the typical locals with the high dewpoints,
clear skies and light winds.

A surface cold front will begin to drop southward across the
region on Wednesday. Ahead of the front, it will remain hot and
humid with high temperatures reaching the mid-80s to lower 90s
in most areas outside the highest terrain. Continued humid
conditions will allow for feels- like temperatures to reach 95
to 100 degrees across Hudson Valley into Washington County as
well as into the Mohawk Valley, central and southern Taconics
and Litchfield County, CT. The heat advisory for tomorrow was
expanded northward. While upper level support is lacking,
forcing from the approaching front with upwards of 1000-1500
J/kg of CAPE and 30-50 kt of shear should allow for at least
isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms during
the afternoon hours. Any thunderstorm that does develop has the
potential to produce gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. We
remain outlooked in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms by
the Storm Prediction Center on Wednesday along with a marginal
risk for excessive rainfall.

On Thursday, the cold front will settle just south of the area
with latest guidance hinting at a wave of low pressure tracking
along the front then off the mid-Atlantic and Northeast coast
by early Friday. An upper level shortwave will also pass through
the flow. We look to be located within the right entrance
region of an unseasonably strong 150 kt upper level jet.
Forcing for ascent associated with the jet could allow for a
developing area of moderate to heavy rain and some thunderstorms
across parts of the area. There is considerable uncertainty
with how much rainfall we could receive and where. Nonetheless,
training rainfall will be a concern as the axis of rainfall will
be tracking parallel to the nearly stalled west- east oriented
frontal boundary amid precipitable water values between 1.25 and
1.75 inches. A tight northern gradient in the rainfall is
expected. At this time, the greatest rainfall potential looks to
be for areas south of Albany with lesser rainfall amounts
farther north. We are currently forecasting 1 to 3 inches of
rain from the Capital Region and points south and east with
lesser amounts north and west Probabilistic guidance shows a
25-30% chance of greater than 2 inches of rainfall over the
southeast part of the forecast area in line with the slight
excessive rainfall outlook. Will monitor trends in the coming
days and any potential for flooding.

The system looks to depart slowly on Friday and the southeast
part of the forecast area may see clouds and showers linger
through most of the day. Beyond friday, a large area of high
pressure builds into the region bringing a period of dry and
less humid weather which should last into early next week. High
temperatures in the 70s on Friday (upper 60s in the higher
elevations) will slowly trend upward into the upper 70s to
mid-80s by early next week. Low temperatures most nights will
fall into the 50s except for some 40s in the higher elevations.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06z/Thu...VFR conditions will continue through the
overnight at KALB/KPOU with patchy fog resulting in variable
vsbys at KGFL/KPSF. Thursday will be mostly VFR with some
cumulus development during the afternoon. Isolated to widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
ahead of an approaching cold front. KPOU looks to be the mostly
likely site to have some showers and thunderstorms nearby so
included a PROB30 for this update. All other TAFs were left dry
as coverage may be rather sparse. VFR conditions will likely
continue through Thursday evening with just a few lingering
cumulus and passing cirrus. Calm wind overnight will become west
to southwesterly on Thursday at around 10 kt. Wind will shift
northwesterly at 4-8 kt Thursday evening.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     CTZ001-013.
NY...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     NYZ040-041-049-050-052-053-059>061-064>066-083-084.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SND
DISCUSSION...SND
AVIATION...Rathbun