989
FXUS61 KALY 130609
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
109 AM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

.UPDATE...
As of 7 PM EST, scattered rain showers below ~1400 feet, and
snow showers above continue across the SW Adirondacks/western
Mohawk Valley and across upslope areas of southern VT/NW MA.
Weak warm front approaching from the west will allow snow levels
to rise this evening, so even some higher terrain areas could
start to mix with/change to plain rain for a period prior to
midnight, before changing back to snow after midnight. Valley
areas should remain mainly rain showers, though can not rule out
some snow or graupel mixing in with any heavier showers after
midnight. Otherwise temps will slowly rise through midnight
into/through the mid/upper 30s, before higher terrain areas fall
back into the lower 30s after midnight.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Chilly weather and periods of lake effect snow showers will
continue through early Friday morning. Most locations will be
warm enough to see some light rain or a rain/snow mix, while
snow accumulations will be confined to the southern
Adirondacks, Mohawk Valley, northern Catskills, and southern
Greens. Drier weather late in the week will be followed by a
wintry mix changing to plain rain Saturday night, with breezy
and colder conditions returning on Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Messages:

- High confidence continues for below normal temperatures and
  accumulating lake effect snow across the western
  Adirondacks/western Mohawk Valley into tonight.

Discussion: As of 1:55 PM EDT...GOES 16 WV imagery shows our
region still is under broad upper troughing aloft. The most
potent embedded shortwaves are beginning to move near northern
portions of the region. Meanwhile, a surface trough is centered
over the Great Lakes region, such that upwind lake bands are
being steered southeastward and enhancing the moisture transport
associated with showers downwind of Lake Ontario. With low level
southerly flow disrupting any kind of bands today, precipitation
rates have been light in our area, with an estimated inch or
two of new snow in northern Herkimer and Hamilton counties,
while light rain or wet, non-accumulating snow, is common
elsewhere aside from the mountains with temperatures in the mid
30s to low 40s.

The aforementioned upwind lake bands will tend to angle into
far southern/western portions of the forecast area after
midnight, mainly affecting the Catskills with locally heavy
snowfall into the daylight hours. Localized snowfall in excess
of 4" is likely with this band through tomorrow evening. Prior
to the band settling in this area, a brief period of heavier
precipitation is possible farther north, but areas such as along
I-90 will probably be warm enough for limited impacts.

One final push of cooler air and northwest flow-generated lake-
effect snow showers is expected tomorrow night, with relatively
limited precipitation rates. Generally colder conditions
tomorrow night, including low temperatures most likely to be
below freezing areawide along with partial clearing, could lead
to icy conditions of wet roadways.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Messages:

- High confidence in below normal temps continues through the
  long term period.

- Timing of the next system has sped up, with a wintry mix
  changing to rain as early as Saturday afternoon followed by
  blustery and colder conditions on Sunday. There remains a
  30-60% chance of at least a glaze of ice across the southern
  Adirondacks and southern Green Mountains.

Discussion:

Following a narrow ridge of high pressure and quiet weather to
end the week, the next low pressure system passing to our north will
induce substantial warming, especially aloft, while near
surface temperatures warm more slowly. This scenario continues
to point to a cold rain with gradual warming, such that pockets
of freezing rain at the onset will tend become more isolated
overnight when probabilities of rain are higher. So for now, it
does not like like a high impact event, but will have to monitor
as any ice accretion would be hazardous given the cold
antecedent conditions. The trend towards faster departure of
this system with deepening low pressure exiting across northern
Maine Sunday morning is leading to a colder and windier day for
Sunday. Noted that the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index is
highlighting the Mohawk Valley in particular for potential
strong wind gusts. Another period of lake effect snow showers
is favored for Sunday night into Monday, with lesser chances
thereafter. No additional widespread precipitation is expected
following the Saturday night event as large scale low pressure
systems are unlikely to pass near the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06Z Friday...An incoming disturbance will promote
westerly flow through tomorrow and support lake enhanced rain
showers and lower ceilings down the Mohawk Valley into western
New England. Therefore, we continue to show rain showers and
MVFR cigs at PSF with ceilings becoming MVFR at ALB shortly
before sunrise as a more organized band develops. Given cloud
coverage overnight and temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s,
p-type looks to remain mainly rain. However, depending on the
precipitation intensity at PSF, there is a low chance for a
brief period of rain/snow mix 10-14 UTC due to wet-bulb
cooling. GFL and POU look to remain mainly north and south of
the lake enhanced showers/clouds and therefore likely remain
VFR. While lake enhanced rain bands become
disorganized/scattered near/shortly after 15 UTC resulting in
improved cigs at ALB, upsloping at PSF should maintain light
rain showers and MVFR cigs through the day.

Southwest winds 5-9 KT through 14-15 UTC before winds become
more westerly and turn gusty. Sustained winds reach 5-12kts at
all terminals with gusts up to 20-25 KTS through 21-22 UTC.
Strongest winds likely at POU where cigs will be higher,
promoting deeper boundary layer mixing. Winds then gradually
weaken by 22-23 UTC as the boundary layer decouples after
sunset but sustained winds remain 5-10kts through the end of the
TAF period.

Outlook...

Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...SHSN.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely RA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely RA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of
RA...SN.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of
SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...24
SYNOPSIS...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...31