582
FXUS61 KALY 172327
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
727 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
After another hot and humid day with scattered rain showers and
a few thunderstorms through this early evening, windy
conditions are in store tonight through tomorrow morning. Dry
conditions for tomorrow through Saturday afternoon when our next
weather system arrives bringing unsettled weather conditions
through the weekend. Near normal temperatures through next week
with drier conditions in store for Monday through Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Messages:

- Relief from the heat and humidity tonight.

- Windy conditions tonight into Friday morning with gusts
  potentially (45% chance) reaching up to 40 mph in valley
  locations.

Update...Allowed the Heat Advisory to expire at 700 PM as
feels-like temperatures have dropped below 95F. First cold
front or dewpoint boundary, will be clearing the entire area
shortly. Dewpoints will drop into the 60s behind this first
front. Also, the threat of thunderstorms has greatly diminished.
A secondary cold front positioned across northern NY, will push
southeast across the area through much of the rest of the
evening ushering even even less humid conditions with cold
advection commencing. Winds will continue to occasionally gust
to around 30-40 mph, especially in favored spots in W-NW flow.

Previous Discussion...Relief from the heat and humid conditions
arrives tonight with a strong cold front moving through.
Scattered rain showers and a few thunderstorms continue to
develop for this afternoon and evening across eastern New York
and western New England ahead of a cold front moving through
tonight. This cold front will help contribute to the relief
from the humidity and hot temperatures.

Windy conditions will also follow suit behind the cold front as
a surface low pressure system heads north and east tonight and
tomorrow morning. Winds could gust between 35 and 45 mph
periodically through early tomorrow morning for the Mohawk
Valley into the Hudson Valley and Berkshires as latest high
resolution forecast models and probabilities from the National
Blend of Models supports winds greater than 30 mph is between 60
and 80 percent. Breezy conditions are in store elsewhere
through the early morning hours Friday. By tomorrow afternoon,
winds decrease and range between 10 and 15 mph.

Surface high pressure builds into the Northeast for tonight into
tomorrow bringing drier conditions and comfortable temperatures with
highs in the 80s and dew points in the 50s for Friday. Less humid
conditions are in store through Saturday with chances (50-70%)
of rain showers and non-severe thunderstorms developing Saturday
night into Sunday. A surface low pressure system quickly moves
through eastern New York and western New England Saturday night
into Sunday morning bringing these unsettled conditions.
Depending on how fast the low pressure system moves through and
how strong the surface high pressure moves in to the Northeast,
dry conditions return Sunday night through Tuesday afternoon.

Low chances of precipitation (less than 30%) for beyond Tuesday
as ensemble forecast models and National Blend of Models
probabilistic guidance supports a variety of weather conditions
as we could see either dry conditions or afternoon rain shower
activity. Temperatures throughout the week remain seasonal with
highs ranging in the 70s and 80s and overnight lows in the 50s
and 60s. Towards the end of next week, hot afternoon
temperatures could return with temperatures ranging in the 80s
and low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 00z Saturday...The first cold front has moved across the
area, bringing an end to the threat for any TSRA. A secondary
cold front will move through later this evening, with just a
low probability of an isolated light shower but too low to
mention in TAFs. VFR conditons are expected to prevail, although
mid level clouds will increase behind the cold front, with cigs
possibly getting close to MVFR levels at KPSF overnight into
early Friday morning. Clouds will start to dissipate after 12z
Friday, as high pressure builds in from the west. Winds will
initially be westerly around 10-17 kt with gusts of 20-30 kt,
becoming northwest by 06z around 10-15 kt with gusts of 20-25
kt. Wind speeds/gusts will gradually decrease on Friday.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Webb
DISCUSSION...JPV/Webb
AVIATION...JPV