054
FXUS61 KALY 171730
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
130 PM EDT Sun Aug 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will continue moving through the region
this afternoon and evening, bringing with it isolated to
scattered chances for showers and thunderstorms. Following its
passage, dry and much cooler conditions will prevail through
Tuesday before temperatures return to more seasonal levels by
week`s end.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

* A heat Advisory remains in effect for eastern Ulster and
  western Dutchess Counties from noon to 7 PM today where heat
  indices are expected to reach 95-98 degrees.

* Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon into
  early evening. A few could be strong to severe, especially
  along and south of I-90, with gusty winds being the main
  threat.

Long awaited cold front continuing to work through the fcst area
this afternoon, with recent radar scans showing developing shwrs and
isolated storms across the southern Adirondacks. CAMs to include
both the latest HRRR and 12 NAM show continued shwr/storm
development this afternoon/early evening, before front clears area
later tonight. After midnight shift`s collaboration with SPC and
surrounding offices, a marginal risk for severe was reintroduced for
the Capital District and points south this afternoon and evening.
Overall setup for severe does not look overly impressive, as
main core of stronger winds aloft/better shear remain displaced
to our north across northern New York and southern Canada, while
better instability remains to our south. That said, fcst
soundings show a tall/skinny CAPE profile with unidirectional
westerly flow through the column. Also apparent are steep low-
level lapse rates which extend through almost 5 kft. Given
this, overall threat for any stronger storms this
afternoon/early evening should be restricted to strong
convective wind gusts as limited CAPE aloft should limit large
hail production.

Following the passage of the today`s front, a notable cool down is
expected for the first half of the work week. Both Monday and and
Tuesday look dry, with high temps ranging in the lower to middle 70s
across much of our area. Dewpoints both days will only be in the 40s
to low 50s, which will lead to noticeably less humid conditions. In
dewpoints, Monday looks to be the driest of the two days with
values dropping into the lower to middle 40s.

By Tuesday night/Wednesday, attention shifts to a northern stream
shortwave that will be approaching our area from the northwest. The
arrival of this feature will lead to renewed shwr chances across the
fcst area Wednesday and Wednesday night. This wave will quickly move
east to ensure Hurricane Erin remains well out to sea. Unfortunately
QPF amounts with the shortwave/front look to remain light,
w/LREF ensemble probabilities for 24-hr QPF of 0.50" or more
remaining less than 30% for our fcst area.

After the shortwave exits to our east, weak upper ridging,
combined with a return of southerly winds, will lead to a
gradual warmup for the latter half of the work week. By Friday,
afternoon highs will again top out in the lower to middle 80s,
with slightly warmer temps expected on Saturday. This will occur
out ahead of a deep northern stream trough and surface cold
front that will approach our region Saturday night. These
features, combined with what looks like strong moisture
advection from the south, will set the stage for what may be
widespread shwr coverage on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Flying conditions are currently VFR for all sites ahead of an
approaching cold front.  Ceilings will generally be sct-bkn at 4-6
kft through the afternoon hours.  Some scattered convection will be
possible ahead of the boundary so will include a PROB30 for all
sites for some possible thunderstorms that may develop ahead of the
front.  Any thunderstorm would be brief, but could have a quick
burst of heavy rainfall, allowing for MVFR/IFR visibility and gusty
winds.  West-southwest winds will be 5 to 10 kts ahead of the
approaching frontal boundary.

Behind the front, some lingering clouds around 3-4 kft are expected
for all sites for a few hours.  Otherwise, drier air moving in
thanks to the northerly flow should be allowing for clear skies to
be in place by the late night or early morning hours on Monday. No
precip is expected on Monday with clear skies and VFR conditions all
day. Winds will be northerly at around 5-10 kts for the overnight
and into the day on Monday.

Outlook...

Monday Night to Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NYZ064-065.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...32
DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Frugis