669
FXUS61 KALY 112000
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
400 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Increasing clouds this afternoon into tonight. A coastal low
heads up the Atlantic Coast tomorrow where high confidence
continues for locations south and east of Albany for rain to
begin tomorrow afternoon. Dry conditions return Tuesday through
the end of the work week with seasonal temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

Key Message:

 -Confidence continues to increase in beneficial rainfall to
  return tomorrow into Monday.

Discussion:
Clouds continue to increase into tonight with an upper level
trough approaching from the west and a surface low pressure
system from the south. This coastal low is supported by latest
ensemble forecast model guidance to merge with the upper level
trough and bring breezy winds and rain to eastern New York and
western New England tomorrow afternoon through Monday night.
Wind gusts tomorrow afternoon into the early evening hours are
forecasted to range between 15 and 25 mph. A few locations in
the Litchfield Hills could gust over 25 mph as the low pressure
system continues to move northeast over the Atlantic Coast. One
forecast note that continues to be uncertain is exact rainfall
amounts with this system. The current forecast supports
widespread rainfall amounts over 0.25 inches. For locations
south and east of Albany, rainfall amounts continue to support
for over 0.5 inches. Terrain influence over the southeast
Catskills, Mid- Hudson Valley, Litchfield Hills and southern
Vermont support for over 1 inch of rainfall in the 48 hour
period through Tuesday morning. Latest National Blend of Model
data and ensemble forecast model guidances have trended for the
higher terrain locations in the eastern Catskills for over 2
inches of rainfall in 48 hours from tomorrow afternoon through
Tuesday morning. The period of steadiest rainfall is overnight
Sunday into Monday morning. The primary impact is that this
rainfall could be beneficial for locations that have been seeing
very dry conditions and there are no flooding concerns.
Temperatures are going to only have a minimal difference
overnight into the day tonight through Monday as the clouds help
the surface keep warm with air temperatures ranging in the 40s
tonight and highs in the 50s and low 60s tomorrow and Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The coastal low heads east Monday night with dry conditions
returning for the extended period. Very low chances for Tuesday
evening with an upper level shortwave, but ensemble forecast
model guidances continue to support the most likely scenario of
dry conditions persisting. We remain seasonal with high
temperatures in the 50s and 60s and lows in the 30s and 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18z/Sun...VFR conditions are expected across all sites
this afternoon through the overnight hours. A greater
coverage of clouds is expected at KPOU/KPSF through this
afternoon but bases should remain above 3000 ft. FEW-SCT
coverage of fair weather cu is expected at KALB/KGFL. Some
clearing is expected tonight before clouds thicken and lower
between 12-18z/Sun from south to north as a coastal low
approaches, resulting in the transition to some MVFR cigs. Rain
showers may approach KPOU toward the end of the TAF period so
introduced this with a VCSH at 16z/Sun. Light/variable wind
through tonight will become northeasterly at around 10 kt on
Sunday with some higher gusts to around 20 kt, especially at
KPSF/KPOU.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely RA.
Columbus Day: High Operational Impact. Likely RA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...RA.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A Special Weather Statement for Bennington and Windham counties
Sunday 8 AM to 2 PM. Relative humidity values are as low as 60
percent. Wind gusts range between 20 and 30 mph. High
temperatures range in the 50s. Rain shower activity increases
after noon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A coastal low will track close to the the NJ and Long Island
Coast Sunday through Monday. Minor tidal flooding may occur in
the Mid-Hudson Valley from Kingston south to Poughkeepsie late
Sunday through Monday. The latest NERFC forecast for the Hudson
River near Poughkeepsie is projecting minor tidal flooding
Sunday afternoon and early evening and again on Monday afternoon
and early evening.

Monitor the latest river forecasts on the NWPS page at
https:/water.noaa.gov/area/ALY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...33
FIRE WEATHER...05
HYDROLOGY...05/37