820
FXUS61 KALY 221038
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
638 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 6:35 AM EDT...Increased PoPs near and north of I-90
through the next few hours with some scattered showers moving
through the region with and ahead of the cold front.

Previous: SPC has just clipped portions of western CT/MA with
the marginal risk for severe storms today. Otherwise, bumped up
winds/gusts today, and lowered low temps a few degrees Thursday
and Friday nights as sfc high pressure builds overhead. Also
added in patchy fog each of the next few nights.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A few stronger storms are possible in southwestern New
England today, although confidence is low whether or not any
storms will develop.

2) Tranquil weather with temperatures trending slightly above normal
Thursday into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...This morning, the cold front tracks eastwards
through the region, although it will slow down as it reaches
western New England. While the best upper forcing will remain
northwest of the region, low-level convergence along the front
may be able to help initiate a few showers or thunderstorms.
Latest HREF suggests 500 to maybe 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE ahead of
the cold front overlapping with 40-45 kt of deep-layer shear in
western New England. Hodographs are fairly long with some
counter- clockwise curvature thanks to backing winds with
height. This would generally be a relatively favorable
environment for severe weather with splitting cells and even
some left movers. However, abundant mid-level dry air and
subsidence will be very difficult for any updrafts to overcome
and be able to sustain themselves. 700-500 mb lapse rates are
also unimpressive, with a mid-level cap developing this
afternoon. So, these factors will help mitigate the severe
weather threat. SPC has clipped far southeastern Berkshire
County and portions of Litchfield County with the marginal risk
for severe weather today, but the threat is very conditional on
updrafts being able to overcome the mid- level dry air.

While a few showers are possible across the ADKs today closer to
the upper trough and due to some westerly upslope enhancement,
most of the rest of the region should see a drying trend with
lowering humidity through the day. Highs will mainly be in the
70s.


KEY MESSAGE 2...All areas dry out tonight as sfc high pressure
builds into the region from the west. The sfc high will remain
overhead or just to our east through Saturday morning. During
this period, we will see comfortable humidity and quiet weather.
Daytime highs Thursday will only be in the 70s with the upper
trough still overhead, but warm into the 70s to 80s Friday as
heights rise aloft. Overnight lows will be quite comfortable
each night with 40s to 50s. We went cooler than the NBM Thursday
night and Friday night with the sfc high overhead. Some patchy
radiation fog will also be possible in the typical valley areas
each night as well.

Saturday into early next week, the sfc high slides off to our
east, setting up S/SW return flow into our region. Temperatures
rise slightly above normal into the mid 80s for valley areas
Saturday through Monday. Dew points remain fairly comfortable,
but do begin to creep up as well especially Sunday into Monday.
Another approaching upper trough and diffluent flow aloft may
lead to renewed shower chances late Sunday and early next week,
but none of these days currently look to be a washout.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 12z Thursday...Flying conditions range from IFR at ALB/GFL
to MVFR at PSF and VFR at POU as of 6:30 AM EDT. Low stratus should
begin to lift before the start of the 12z TAF period, but a few
hours of MVFR cigs are expected through 14-15z until a cold front
comes through and mixes out the low-level moisture. A few showers
are possible with the cold front at ALB/GFL this morning, so have
added this in the tempo groups that cover MVFR cigs. A few showers
are possible at POU/PSF later this morning through mid afternoon,
and have continued VCSH groups for this. Behind the cold front, low
just FEW to SCT mid-level clouds through early tonight before skies
clear. Some patchy fog/mist is possible at GFL late tonight as winds
become calm.

Winds to start the TAF period will be at 5-10 kt from the SW, but
switch to the west at 10-15 kt between 14-16z with gusts to 20-30 kt
expected through much of today. Gusts diminish within a couple hours
after sunset, with winds becoming calm as well between 04-07z.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...35