110
FXUS61 KALY 241931
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
231 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions through Tuesday morning will give way to
widespread, nuisance rainfall Tuesday afternoon through
Wednesday morning courtesy of the passage of an upper-level
disturbance. Temperatures surge above normal Wednesday as light
showers linger in response to a passing warm front. A potent
cold front then swiftly tracks through the region Wednesday
evening or Wednesday night, causing temperatures to nose-dive
below normal and significant lake effect to develop Thursday
into Saturday morning. Drier conditions are expected Saturday
afternoon into Saturday night before another storm system
threatens potentially widespread precipitation to end the
weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Increasing subsidence inflicted from the surface high continuing
to build in across the region this afternoon has put an end to
morning showers and continues to erode upslope cloud cover
across the Southwest Adirondacks, Southern Greens, Berkshires,
and Taconics. Where clouds have long-since dissipated,
temperatures have risen into the upper 40s to near 50.
Elsewhere, a broad range of low 30s to mid 40s currently
prevails.

Dry conditions will remain in place through tonight and into
tomorrow morning as the anticyclone drifts east and begins to
exit the region. A few hours of prime radiational cooling
tonight will see temperatures drop widely into the 20s to near
30, but lows will likely be reached before or around midnight as
clouds begin to increase ahead of an approaching upper-level
shortwave and surface trough. By tomorrow afternoon, an area of
light, stratiform rain will begin to overspread the region from
southwest to northeast as warm air advection and isentropic lift
increase ahead of a warm front associated with a developing
area of low pressure along the surface wave. Highs tomorrow
will reach the 40s to low 50s with pockets of upper 30s across
the highest elevations of the Southwest Adirondacks and Southern
Greens.

Rain continues through Tuesday night before tapering off
Wednesday morning as the stratiform rain shield departs to the
northeast. Lows Tuesday will be on the mild side due to rain
and ample cloud coverage with values in the 30s to low 40s.
Scattered showers will remain in the wake of the stratiform rain
shield as the aforementioned warm front lifts northward, but a
brief break is anticipated later in the afternoon within the
pseudo- warm sector of the primary surface low that will be
entering the Great Lakes by Wednesday afternoon beneath a closed
low aloft. Courtesy of the warm- advected environment and this
pseudo- warm sector, highs Wednesday will surge into the upper
40s to near 60 with pockets of mid 40s across higher terrain
regions and low 60s in the lower Mid-Hudson Valley.

The warm up Wednesday will not be long lived as the primary low
and its upper-level counterpart deepen on their northeast track
into southwest Quebec and a potent cold front subsequently is
rotated through the region. Some additional rain showers, and
perhaps a rumble of thunder, will pulse through the region along
and ahead of the front through Wednesday night, with snow
beginning to mix in at the higher elevations of the Southwest
Adirondacks. Lows Wednesday will fall to the mid 20s to low 30s
with most shower activity tapering off by early Thursday
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Messages:

 - Medium to high confidence in warning-level snowfall
   accumulations (40 to 70% of >7" over 72 hours) resulting
   from upslope and lake effect snowbands across northern
   Herkimer County Thursday afternoon through Friday night.

 - Medium to high confidence in advisory-level snowfall
   accumulations (40 to nearly 100% of >4" over 72 hours)
   resulting from upslope and lake effect snowbands across
   portions of the Southwest Adirondacks and western Mohawk
   Valley Thursday afternoon through Friday night.

 - Low to medium confidence in advisory-level wind gusts (20-60%
   >45 mph) across portions of the Southwest Adirondacks, Lake
   George Region, Mohawk Valley, Eastern Catskills, Southern
   Greens, Berkshires, and Taconics Thursday and Friday.

Discussion:
Persistent deepening of the upper-level low as it drifts
northward Thursday through Thursday night will enhance cyclonic
vorticity advection as potent cold air advection continues in
the wake of the cold front. As such, lake effect and upslope
snow will develop across the Southwest Adirondacks late Thursday
afternoon/early Thursday evening. Southwest flow to start will
allow lake effect bands to primarily become situated across far
northwest Herkimer and possibly Hamilton Counties, with
orographic enhancement leading to potentially heavier snowfall
rates. As an embedded shortwave pulses through the mean flow of
the upper-level trough, extending southward from the base of the
upper low, winds will gradually veer from the southwest to the
west Friday, possibly even becoming more northwesterly by Friday
night such that snowbands begin to wobble southward and extend
through the western Mohawk Valley and into portions of the
Northeast Catskills. Orographic enhancement will continue,
leading to light to moderate accumulations in the western Mohawk
Valley and portions of the Eastern Catskills, aligning with
strong low- level winds to give way to the development of
upslope snow showers in the Southern Greens and the extension
of snow bands as far south and east as the Capital District and
possibly even the Berkshires through Saturday morning. High
pressure will then begin to build in across the region from the
southwest Saturday, pairing with flat ridging aloft to cut off
lake effect from increased subsidence.

When all is said and done, storm total snowfall accumulations
are anticipated to be greatest in the Southwest Adirondacks
where values ranging anywhere from 2 to 10 inches are possible.
However, light accumulations are also possible with the
northeast Catskills, western Mohawk Valley, and Southern Greens.
Based on the latest 13z run of the NBM, we have medium to high
confidence (40 to 70%) in at least 7 inches of snow mainly
across northern Herkimer County. However, there`s also medium to
high confidence (40 to nearly 100%) in at least 4 inches of snow
across all of the Southwest Adirondacks and western Mohawk
Valley. Therefore, in collaboration with neighboring offices and with
the greatest confidence in moderate to heavy snowfall resulting
from lake effect snow bands, along with orographic enhancement,
we have issued a Winter Storm Watch for all of Herkimer County.
Should confidence increase in at least 7 inches of snow in
Hamilton County, the Watch could be expanded in future forecast
iterations. It is also important to note that the strong cold
advection along with the steep pressure gradient will make for
gusty conditions Thursday and Friday. In fact, there`s a 20 to
60% chance for wind gusts to exceed 45 mph, per the latest LREF,
across portions of the Southwest Adirondacks, Lake George
Region, Mohawk Valley, Eastern Catskills, Southern Greens,
Berkshires, and Taconics. Therefore, not only will Wind
Advisories possibly be needed, but blowing snow will be a
concern. Blowing snow paired with heavy snowfall rates will pose
a significant hindrance to visibility, potentially
significantly impacting travel for the Thanksgiving holiday and
the Friday morning and evening commutes. We will be monitoring
this element of the forecast closely and messaging appropriately
for holiday travel preparations.

With high pressure in place Saturday, dry conditions will be
reinforced regionwide and linger into at least part of the night
Saturday night. However, another storm system threatens the
return of widespread precipitation for the end of the weekend
and possibly into the beginning of the work week next week.
There is a lot of uncertainty pertaining to this system at this
lead time, however, so we did not deviate from the latest NBM
solution.

Temperatures throughout the long term period will be below
normal for the most part after the passage of the aforementioned
cold front. Highs Thursday will be the warmest with values in
the upper 20s to low 40s. Friday and Saturday`s highs will be
fairly similar with mid 20s to near 40. Sunday`s values will
then be similar to, though a few degrees cooler than, Thursday.
Lows throughout the period will largely be in the upper 10s to
20s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 18z Tuesday...Mainly VFR conditions as of 12:00 PM EST,
except at PSF where upslope clouds are leading to MVFR cigs.
Some brief MVFR cigs at ALB should dissipate by the start of the
18z TAF period. Still low confidence on how long the MVFR cigs
linger at PSF, but the trend should be for clouds to scatter out
as we get through the afternoon and especially towards sunset.
For all other terminals, VFR conditions expected this afternoon
with SCT to occasionally BKN cigs 3500-4500 ft. Tonight, skies
become BKN to OVC at 10 kft - 15 kft, continuing through end end
of the TAF period tomorrow. There is a low chance for some
patchy fog/mist at GFL or PSF tonight if there are enough breaks
in the high clouds, but confidence is too low to mention in the
TAFs at this time. Otherwise, W/NW winds at 5-10 kt with gusts
to 15-20 kt (mainly at ALB/PSF) trend to light and variable
after sunset through tonight. Winds then turn to the S/SE and
increase to 5-10 kt again tomorrow by mid-morning, with some
gusts of 15-20 kt possible at ALB/PSF. Beyond the end of the TAF
period, widespread light rain is expected tomorrow evening.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite RA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Thanksgiving Day: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 34 kts. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHSN.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 37 kts. Chance of SHSN.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHSN.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Winter Storm Watch from Thursday afternoon through Saturday
     morning for NYZ032-038.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...37
SHORT TERM...37
LONG TERM...37
AVIATION...35