996
FXUS61 KALY 070538
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
138 AM EDT Wed May 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A closed low pressure system continues to impact the region
through tomorrow, bringing additional rounds of showers and some
thunderstorms. More rain is expected at the end of the week and
into the first half of the weekend before a much needed respite
comes in time for Mother`s Day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Key Messages:

- Flood Watch will be allowed to expire at 2 AM as originally
  scheduled.

Discussion:
.Update...As of 1:35 AM EDT...Most of the rain has currently
stopped across the region, although some additional light
showers are likely through the rest of the overnight across
portions of the far western Mohawk Valley and western ADKs, as
these areas are closer to the upper low and associated surface
low. Given that the heavier and widespread rain has ended, the
flood watch will be allowed to expire at 2 AM as originally
scheduled. Minor adjustments made to temps, dew points, and PoPs
to reflect current trends. Will also include mention of some
patchy fog in a few of the more sheltered areas, although light
winds should prevent fog from becoming widespread tonight.
Otherwise, previous forecast remains on track, with more details
below...

.Previous...An upper level low is currently positioned across
western New York and Pennsylvania. Outside of a few light rain
showers across far western areas, mainly dry weather will occur
overnight under a partly to mostly cloudy sky. Temperatures
will fall back into the mid-40s to mid-50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Showers continue through much of Wednesday as the closed low and
surface cyclone continue to weaken and finally begin to depart
the region to the northeast. But as forcing continues to
decrease, rates will also decrease such that showers will remain
light. High temperatures tomorrow will be in the upper 50s the
upper 60s with isolated pockets of low 70s in the lower Mid-
Hudson Valley.

Mainly dry conditions finally take hold of the region Wednesday
night as flow aloft becomes more zonal and moisture decreases
behind the passage of a backdoor cold front. Lows will be in the
upper 40s to low 50s primarily with low/mid 40s in the Southwest
Adirondacks.

Unfortunately, dry conditions will not be long lasting as
additional showers become possible once again by Thursday
afternoon. Though there remains some uncertainty about the
evolution and timing of the next disturbance, it looks as though
the aforementioned back door front becomes stalled near the
southern boundary of our CWA by Thursday afternoon as a potent
shortwave trough begins to dig south from southwestern Quebec.
Forcing from the front, nearby surface low pressure, and
cyclonic vorticity advection at the leading edge of the
shortwave will allow showers to initiate from south to north
beginning Thursday afternoon. At this point, showers don`t look
to be significantly heavy at onset, but certainly will be re-
wetting already very moist soils from days previous. But, with
the deepening of the shortwave and strengthening of an inverted
trough/surface low off the Mid-Atlantic Coast Thursday night,
some embedded heavier rates will become possible. Highs Thursday
will be in the upper 40s across the Southwest Adirondacks to low
70s in the lower Mid-Hudson Valley. Lows will then be in the
upper 30s to low/mid 40s with pockets of upper 40s in the
lower Mid-Hudson Valley and Litchfield County.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Message:

- Increasing confidence in widespread rainfall Friday through
  Saturday with low to medium probabilities (30-70%) for
  accumulations of at least 0.25" across eastern New York and
  western New England.

Discussion:

Like in the previous two periods, rain will be no stranger to the
extended forecast period as much of eastern New York and western New
England will end the work week and start the weekend rather wet.
With a potent, neutrally-tilting shortwave trough continuing to
dig south from Southwest Quebec through western New York, the
eastern Ohio Valley, and the western Mid-Atlantic throughout the
day Friday, an inverted surface trough will nose northward
along the Mid-Atlantic Coast. Southerly to southwesterly flow
will advect Atlantic air into the region, supplying plenty of
moisture to initiate and maintain rain. While most areas will
see light rainfall rates to start, the deepening of the
shortwave into a closed low will trigger a surface response with
the development of a coastal low which could cause steadier to
more moderate rainfall rates especially south and east of Albany
Friday evening through Friday night. High temperatures Friday
will be in the upper 40s to upper 50s with lows Friday night
cooling off to the upper 30s to mid/upper 40s.

Rain continues into Saturday, though as the closed low and its
surface counterpart track north and east through the Northeast, it
will gradually taper off through Saturday afternoon with high
pressure building in quickly in the wake of the system. By Saturday
evening, QPF looks to range from about 0.15" to 0.9" with the
greatest amounts lying generally east of the Hudson River Valley and
the least to the north and west of I-90. Now, it is important to
note that this forecast is not certain at this time. While general
consensus agrees with this solution, there are still some members of
guidance pointing to the responsible system kicking out to our south
and east such that only light rain amounts are accumulated. With all
of the rain leading up to this potential event, we will continue to
monitor this situation closely for any potential hydrologic issues.
High temperatures Saturday will be in the upper 50s to upper 60s
with lows in the upper 30s to upper 40s.

Better news comes for Mother`s Day and the beginning of the new work
week as surface high pressure and weak upper-level ridging build in
across the Northeast. Resultant large scale subsidence will
reinforce dry conditions across eastern New York and western New
England, providing a much needed respite to wet weather. And, with
temperatures gradually moderating into the 70s and possibly low
80s by Tuesday, conditions will finally be more pleasant.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z/Thu... A mid and upper level low will move across
central-northern NY into southeast Canada this morning with clouds
and additional chances of showers in the late morning and into the
afternoon.  MVFR/VFR conditions continue this morning for
KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU with MVFR stratus impacting KGFL/KALB.  We are
expecting the stratus in the vicinity of a cold front to impact
all the TAF sites this morning with cigs 1.5-3.0 kft AGL.  Some
improvement may occur initially at KPOU by the late morning.  The
threat of showers increases for KALB-KPSF north and east in the 14Z-
18Z time frame and we used PROB30 groups for showers until 18Z-22Z
for KALB/KGFL/KPSF with MVFR cigs/vsbys.  Cigs will continue 1.5-3.0
kft AGL for the duration of the TAF cycle with some improvement to
low VFR levels at KPSF/KPOU after 00Z/Thu.

The winds will be light from the south at 4-8 KT this morning and
then veer to the south to southwest at 5-12 KT in the late morning
into the afternoon before becoming west to northwest at less than 10
KT tonight.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Flood Watch remains in effect through 2 am for portions of
eastern New York.

Periods of rain continue through tonight, with locally heavy
rain expected, especially throughout the remainder of this
afternoon and early evening. Where heavy rain can repeatedly
move over the same areas, some flooding of urban, low-lying and
poor drainage areas is expected. Even isolated flash flooding
may occur where the heaviest rain falls, especially if it occurs
over the more susceptible urban areas. WPC continues to have a
marginal risk for excessive rainfall across the region today.

Additional rainfall amounts tonight through tomorrow night
ranging between 1 and 3 inches (with the highest amounts in the
eastern Catskills due to upslope enhancement), combined with
already saturated ground has increased the risk of Flash
Flooding in the watch area.

The Housatonic at Stevenson Dam and the Still River at
Brookfield have hit minor flood stage due to the rain overnight.
Latest ensemble river forecasts indicate low to medium
probabilities (~10-30%) for some additional points to reach
minor flood stage, most notably along the Housatonic River,
Esopus Creek, West Canada Creek, Hoosic River, Schoharie Creek,
and on the Walloomsac.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT early this morning for NYZ038>040-
     047-048-051-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gant/Rathbun
NEAR TERM...Gant/NAS/Rathbun
SHORT TERM...Gant
LONG TERM...Gant
AVIATION...Wasula
HYDROLOGY...Gant/Main