983
FXUS61 KALY 102330
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
730 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring mostly clear and seasonably cool
conditions with some patchy valley fog tonight.  The surface high
will be near the New England Coast Monday and Tuesday providing dry
weather and above normal temperatures. Heat and humidity levels
increase on Wednesday ahead of a cold front which will bring
scattered showers and thunderstorms into the evening period, as
another period of dry weather is likely Thursday into next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message:

- A period of hot weather is expected this Mon and Tue but heat
  indices or "feels-like" temps will be mainly between 90-95F
  across some of the valley areas.

As of 234 pm EDT...

High pressure remains near the New England Coast and over the
Mid Atlantic Region is bringing a warm, but dry afternoon to
close the weekend with temps running above normal by 5 to 10
degrees. The mid and upper level ridge is firmly established
over the Northeast with low and mid level heights 1-2+ STDEVs
above normal according to the latest NAEFS. Diurnal cumulus and
some scattered cirrus will diminish early tonight with
clear/mostly skies and calm winds for radiational cooling, once
again allowing temps to drop into the 50s to lower 60s. We
lowered min temps closer to a blend of the METMOS/NBM. Some
patchy fog will develop in the some of the valley areas,
especially the Upper Hudson and CT River Valleys and the Lake
George Region, as well as near the southern Greens and northern
Berkshires.

Strong subsidence will occur with the ridge Mon and Tue. On Mon,
PWATS will run below normal by a standard deviation or so. H850
temps will be about 1-2 STDEVs above normal on Monday. Max temps
will be slightly warmer than today with the H850 temps
according to the 12Z GFS forecasted in the +17C to +19C range.
Expect highs in the upper 80s to around 90F in the valleys and
upper 70s to mid 80s over the hills and mtns. Heat indices or
apparent temps fall short of Heat Advisory criteria and are
mainly in the lower 90s in the valleys. Mostly clear conditions
and light/calm winds will allow for radiational cooling and some
patchy fog again, especially near Lake George and KGFL and near
the southeast VT and the CT River Valley. Fairly stagnant
pattern continues on Tue with H850 temps slightly warmer in the
+18C to +20C range. Sfc dewpts in the upper 50s to lower/mid 60s
may keep humidity levels in the moderate range and the coverage
for "feels-like" temps will generally be 90-95F. If coverage
increases, the maybe a few zones may need a Heat Advisory on
Tue. Otherwise, max temps will be more widespread in the upper
80s to lower 90s below 1000 ft in elevations with low to mid 80s
over the higher terrain.

The ridge begins to break down ahead of an approaching mid and
upper level trough from the Great Lakes Region and southeast
Canada. Mid and high clouds increase late with a few showers
possibly reaching the western Dacks towards daybreak. Lows will
be a bit muggier in the mid and upper 60s with slightly cooler
over the higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Message:

- Heat Indices or "Feels-like" temps reaching the mid and upper
  90s in the Hudson and CT River Valleys Wed ahead of a cold
  front will allow for better chances for Heat Advisories.

The extended forecast begins with a pre-frontal sfc trough and
cold front increasing clouds and bringing a threat for afternoon
showers and thunderstorms to the forecast area. Ahead of the
main front, sfc dewpoints may increase into the mid 60s to
around 70F. These dewpoints coupled with max temps in the upper
80s to lower 90s in the valley areas may allow "feels-like"
temps to rise in the mid/upper 90s in the Hudson River Valley
and east of the southern Greens in the CT River Valley corridor.
If the showers and thunderstorms arrive earlier, then heat
indices will fall short. A few of the thunderstorms may be on
the strong side, if the instability becomes moderate. The 0-6 km
shear on the medium range guidance looks ample for some storm
organization with values in the 20-30 KT range. The scattered
showers/thunderstorms diminish in the early evening. We kept
probabilities in the 30-50% range based on the NBM/ECM
ensembles. Lows fall back into the 60s with some upper in the
Adirondack Park.

Thu looks mainly dry from the Capital Region north and west. The
lingering upper level trough axis near eastern NY and western
New England may allow for isolated/widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms to develop south and east of Albany. Temps will be
near mid Aug seasonal normals with lower/mid 80s in the valleys
and 70s to around 80F over the higher terrain. High pressure
builds in from the north and west with clearing skies and cool
conditions Thu night with lows in the 50s to lower 60s with some
40s over the Adirondack Park. High pressure remain in control
Fri into Sat with mid and upper level heights increasing over NY
and New England. Dry weather and temps trending from near
seasonable normal readings on Fri to slightly above normal Sat.
The latter half of the weekend may be the next time some 90F
readings may be achieved in some of the valley areas, as the
next cold front could bring some isolated to widely scattered
showers/thunderstorms north of the Greater Capital Region.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 00z Tuesday...VFR conditions prevail across all
terminals this evening with visible satellite showing clear
skies across eastern New York and western New England. Given the
consistency of the pattern we are in, VFR conditions will remain
in place throughout the vast majority of the 00z TAF cycle
outside of periods of IFR to MVFR conditions at KGFL and KPSF
due to fog development overnight tonight. The most likely period
of reduced visibilities looks to fall between 06-11z. Winds
throughout the period will be southerly to southwesterly at
sustained speeds under 10 kt.

Outlook...
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Monday for
     NYZ063>066.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...Gant