287
FXUS61 KALY 201050
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
650 AM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler, dry conditions are in store for this Easter
Sunday as high pressure builds east. The next chance for
precipitation comes Monday afternoon into Tuesday as showers
overspread the region as a result of a frontal system. Dry
conditions return for the middle of the week with seasonably warm
temperatures before additional rain chances return for the end of
the week and first half of the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...Few changes were needed with this update, as the
forecast remains in good shape. A weak shortwave is making its
way through the region this morning, forcing a very weak line of
scattered showers through portions of the Mohawk and Upper-
Hudson Valleys. This will quickly fizzle out over the next
couple of hours with clouds beginning to erode as high pressure
builds eastward. Additional details can be found in the previous
discussion below.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Regionwide dry conditions return on this Easter Sunday as
yesterday`s frontal system continues to depart to the northeast
and high pressure builds in from the west in its wake. The
increased pressure gradient sprawled across eastern New York and
western New England, paired with sufficient mixing up to about
900-850mb, will promote the continuation of breezy conditions
with northwest winds maintaining sustained speeds between 10 to
15 mph with gusts reaching 20 to 35 mph. Isolated gusts up to 40
mph will be possible in downsloping regions of the Eastern
Catskills, Berkshires, and Litchfield Hills, but the gradual
slacken of the aforementioned pressure gradient and farther
eastward build of the high and its associated ridge later today
will mitigate these being widespread. High temperatures today
will be noticeably cooler than yesterday with values in the
mid/upper 40s to low 50s across higher elevations and mid 50s to
low 60s elsewhere. However, went a few degrees above guidance
given the expectation for early morning clouds to erode,
providing ample sunshine by late morning/early afternoon, and
deeper mixing leading to enhanced warming.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Tranquility persists into tonight as surface high pressure
encompasses the region ahead of its associated ridge cresting
overhead. Clouds will begin to increase from west to east in
advance of our next weather producer, while winds follow a
decreasing trend as a result of the slackened pressure gradient.
Sufficient radiation from breaks in cloud coverage in addition
to potential decoupling as a result of diminishing winds will
help temperatures fall to the chilly values of mid/upper 20s to
30s.

Monday begins dry as a vertically stacked low pressure system
tracks north and east into the western Great Lakes region. Warm
air advection will increase ahead of the system`s attendant,
southeast-extending warm front leading to an onset of showers as
early as late morning/early afternoon. Forcing associated with
this system will remain rather weak as it deamplifies the
farther north and east it progresses. Additionally, according to
latest forecast soundings, upward vertical motion may be
hindered at first by an elevated stable layer. Therefore, rain
is anticipated to be on the lighter side, especially at and a
few hours after onset until the low levels can saturate below
the low-level inversion. Little in the way of instability should
also mitigate thunderstorm potential, so maintained a lack of
thunder in the weather forecast at this time. Scattered, light
showers therefore can be expected Monday night as the warm front
tracks through the region with a continuation to such into
Tuesday with the passage of the cold front. Highs Monday will be
in the 50s and 60s with lows in the 40s. Highs Tuesday will be
fairly variable given the timing of the cold front. Values will
be in the upper 40s to low 50s in the Southwest Adirondacks with
mid/upper 50s to low 70s elsewhere. Upon the departure of the
cold front Tuesday afternoon, dry conditions return once again.
Lows Tuesday night will fall to the 30s and 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Message:
 - Moderate to high confidence for fair and dry weather Wed-Thu
with temps trending above normal.

Discussion:

Flat mid and upper level ridging builds in over NY and New England
on Wed with fair and dry weather.  Temps will be seasonable, as the
sfc anticyclone builds in from the north and west. Max temps will be
in the lower to mid 60s in the valleys with a few upper 60s in the
mid Hudson Valley and mainly 50s over the higher terrain. The sfc
high builds in over the region Wed night with a chilly night with
lows in the 30s to lower 40s.  The mid level flow is zonal on Thu
with the sfc anticyclone shifting off the east/southeast New England
Coast. Max temps rise about 5-10 degrees above normal with 70s in
the lower elevations and 60s over the higher terrain. The winds look
relatively light for both Wed and Thu.

Clouds increase Thu night into Fri ahead of the next northern stream
system.  Low pressure tracks from the Great Lakes Region into
Ontario on Fri. Chances of showers increase on Fri ahead of the warm
front.  The highest chance PoPs for the extended are in the Fri
night to Sat time frame with scattered showers increasing with 30-
50% probabilities ahead of the upper level trough and cold front.
The cold front timing varies on the medium range guidance/ensembles
but it could clear the region before Sat afternoon. Above normal
temps are expected on Fri before cooling off to seasonable readings
to open the weekend.  Total rainfall for Fri into Sat does not look
hazardous or excessive at this time and WPC has generally a tenth to
a quarter inch or so across the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 12z Monday...Strong west to northwest post frontal winds
continue to increase due to the cold advection in the wake of the
cold front. Sct-bkn stratocumulus lingers at the TAF sites with VFR
conditions.  The skies will clear in the late morning with a few-sct
stratocumulus and then mainly clear skies for the afternoon, as high
pressure builds in from the Great Lakes Region.

The winds will be west/northwest at 15-20 KT with gusts still in the
25-33 KT range this morning into the afternoon due to deeper mixing
and the sfc pressure gradient between the sfc anticyclone and low
pressure in the Canadian Maritimes. The sfc pressure gradient
weakens by the late afternoon into the early evening with the winds
decreasing from the northwest to north at 7-12 KT with gusts under
20 KT by 23Z/Sun, and then will become light and variable direction
at less than 5 KT prior to midnight.

Outlook...

Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry weather returns today for Easter Sunday with winds remaining
fairly breezy. Rapidly drying conditions are expected due to
high pressure building eastward, deep atmospheric mixing, and
northwesterly winds downsloping off higher terrain regions. So,
despite yesterday`s rain, soils are not expected to hold onto
their current moist state for long. In fact, according to latest
obs, most places in Eastern New York and western New England
only received up to 0.25" of liquid yesterday with locally
higher amounts of up to 0.35". Local fire weather partners
deemed these amounts insufficient to moisten fine fuels enough
to mitigate the risk of fire spread in otherwise dry and breezy
conditions. Therefore, with confidence in minimum RH values
ranging from 20-30% with gusts of 25 to 35 mph, and after
collaboration with fire weather partners and neighboring
offices, we have issued a Special Weather Statement for the
Catskill and Mid- Hudson FDRAs, Berkshire, and Litchfield
Counties. The statement specifically applies to the period
between 10 AM and 7 PM when winds will be strongest and RH will
be lowest.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gant
NEAR TERM...Gant
SHORT TERM...Gant
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...Frugis