079
FNUS71 KAKQ 200921
FWSAKQ

Spot Forecast for Plum Creek PC1...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
521 AM EDT Tue May 20 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EDT on May 20.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service at 757-899-5734.

.DISCUSSION...
Dry weather with mostly sunny skies for a majority of the day.
Clouds increase later in the afternoon and evening, but any rain
chances hold off until after sunset. RH values drop to around this
afternoon. NW winds averaging around 5 to 10 mph, and gusts
around 15 mph.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 73.
Min humidity........34 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 7 mph.
Mixing height.......4600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 9 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (39100 mph-ft).
LVORI...............1.
ADI.................49 to 58.

TIME (EDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........17  19  23  26  30  32  34  35
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............60  63  65  68  70  70  72  71
RH..............49  44  41  37  36  36  34  35
20 FT wind dir..N   N   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..7   7   7   7   7   6   6   5
20 FT wind gust.12  12  12  12  12  11  9   8
Mix hgt (kft)...2.8 3.4 3.7 4.1 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.3
Transp wind dir.N   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.15  13  12  12  12  12  10  9
LVORI...........1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............54  52  53  57  58  58  56  49
Vrate mph-ft/1K.43  42  44  47  48  48  47  39
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  FR  FR  FR  FR  PR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers overnight. Rain showers likely early in
                    the morning.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 54.
Max humidity........83 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast 5 to 6 mph after
                    3 am.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 5 to 7 mph shifting to the east 3 to 5
                    mph early in the evening, then shifting to the
                    southeast 7 to 16 mph late in the evening
                    increasing to 17 to 18 mph after 3 am.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (26219 mph-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (1494 mph-ft) late in the
                    night.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................1 to 33.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........49  62  76  75  73  72  73  73  73  81  88  93
Weather cov.....                                CHC CHC CHC LKY
Weather type....                                RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10  30  30  30  70
Temp............70  68  66  63  61  60  59  58  58  58  58  58
RH..............38  42  48  58  62  67  69  75  75  77  77  77
20 FT wind dir..N   NE  NE  E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..4   3   2   2   3   3   3   4   4   5   5   6
20 FT wind gust.6   5   3   3   5   5   5   6   7   8   8   9
Mix hgt (kft)...3.8 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6
Transp wind dir.N   NE  NE  E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.7   5   3   3   5   7   9   13  15  16  17  18
LVORI...........1   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4
ADI.............33  2   1   2   2   3   4   8   10  11  12  12
Vrate mph-ft/1K.26  3   1   1   2   2   4   5   7   7   10  11
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Rain showers and slight
                    chance of thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......100 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 61.
Min humidity........83 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 7 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    morning.
Mixing height.......1900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 16 to 24 mph increasing to 26 to 29 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (14834 mph-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (54394 mph-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................17 to 54.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........94  94  98  98  98  98  98  98  86  86  87  87
Weather cov.....LKY LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                    SCH SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).70  70  100 100 100 100 100 100 70  70  70  70
Temp............57  57  57  57  57  58  58  58  58  58  59  59
RH..............80  83  90  90  93  86  86  90  90  90  83  83
20 FT wind dir..SE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..7   8   9   9   10  10  10  11  11  11  11  11
20 FT wind gust.11  13  14  15  15  16  16  18  19  19  19  19
Mix hgt (kft)...0.8 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.7
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.20  21  21  18  17  16  20  24  28  29  29  26
LVORI...........3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
ADI.............17  26  37  41  31  30  37  46  53  54  52  47
Vrate mph-ft/1K.14  21  28  32  31  30  37  46  53  54  51  45
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  FR  FR  FR  FR  PR

$$
Forecaster...BUTNER
Requested by...Gabriel Cahalan
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2514311.0/AKQ
.DELDT 05/20/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL gcahalan@tnc.org