085
FNUS71 KAKQ 171839
FWSAKQ

Spot Forecast for Robinson...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
139 PM EST Mon Feb 17 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EST on February 18.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service at 757-899-5734.

.DISCUSSION...
Cold high pressure builds into the area from the NW on Tue. This
will result in below freezing temps through most of the day with
highs Tue afternoon in the mid 30s. Temps Tue morning start in
the upper 20s, rising above freezing between 2-4 PM before
dropping below freezing after sunset. Dew points remain in the
middle to upper single digits with RH starting around 45-50%
Tuesday morning and dropping to around 30% by 3-4 PM. Winds remain
NW 10-15 mph through the day with gusts up to 20-25 mph under
partly cloudy skies. Additionally, mixing heights start off around
2000 ft Tue morning, increasing to around 3500 ft by Tue
afternoon.

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 35.
Min humidity........35 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 10 to 13 mph.
Mixing height.......3600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 20 to 22 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (44300 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (67800 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............1.
ADI.................51 to 73.

TIME (EST)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........52  59  56  52  48  44  43  38  31
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............27  29  30  29  30  30  34  33  33
RH..............48  44  41  42  39  41  35  38  38
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..12  13  13  12  12  12  11  11  10
20 FT wind gust.19  20  20  19  18  16  16  15  14
Mix hgt (kft)...2.8 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.4 3.1 2.9 2.6
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.22  22  22  22  22  22  21  21  20
LVORI...........1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............51  53  54  56  57  73  68  63  58
Vrate kt-ft/1K..54  58  61  65  68  62  56  50  44
Ventrate Cat....FR  FR  GD  GD  GD  GD  FR  FR  FR

.TUESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 20.
Max humidity........54 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 8 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......2100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 16 to 21 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (30300 knot-ft).
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................13 to 25.

TIME (EST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........21  17  21  24  27  27  28  30  36  45  55  64
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............31  30  29  28  27  26  25  25  24  23  23  22
RH..............41  44  44  46  48  48  50  48  50  50  50  52
20 FT wind dir..NW  N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..10  9   10  10  11  10  10  10  9   9   9   9
20 FT wind gust.14  14  15  15  18  16  15  15  15  15  15  14
Mix hgt (kft)...2.4 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.18  18  20  20  21  21  21  20  18  18  17  16
LVORI...........2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
ADI.............13  13  13  13  14  14  14  13  25  24  23  22
Vrate kt-ft/1K..39  34  36  38  39  40  39  38  37  35  32  30
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of snow
                    late in the morning. Snow likely in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 27.
Min humidity........50 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 6 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......2100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 6 to 15 mph decreasing to 3 to 5 mph late
                    in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (5900 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair (28000 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................7 to 39.

TIME (EST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........72  78  82  84  85  86  87  89  91  92  92  90
Weather cov.....                CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....                SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   10  10  10  30  30  30  60  60  60  70  70
Temp............22  22  23  24  25  25  26  26  26  26  26  25
RH..............52  52  52  52  50  52  50  52  55  60  62  68
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..8   8   8   8   9   8   8   7   6   5   4   4
20 FT wind gust.14  13  13  13  13  13  12  11  9   7   6   6
Mix hgt (kft)...2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.15  14  12  9   8   7   7   7   6   5   3   5
LVORI...........1   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   3   3
ADI.............39  27  23  19  15  14  14  14  11  9   7   7
Vrate kt-ft/1K..28  25  21  17  14  13  14  13  10  8   6   6
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

$$
Forecaster...MILLER
Requested by...Gabriel Cahalan
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2503094.0/AKQ
.DELDT 02/17/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL gcahalan@tnc.org