128
FNUS71 KAKQ 180917
FWSAKQ

Spot Forecast for Ashley Rx...VDOF
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
517 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on October 18.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service at 757-899-5734.

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure remains over the area over the next several days
with clear skies and dry weather continuing. After a cold start
with temperatures in the mid to upper 30s at sunrise, temperatures
rise quickly into the mid 50s by 10 AM and upper 60s to around 70
this afternoon. RH values drop quickly as well from around 100% at
sunrise to around 30% this afternoon. Northerly winds increase to 5-10
mph later this morning into this afternoon before becoming calm
overnight. Dry weather continues Saturday with min RH values of
35-40% and highs around 70.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 69.
Min humidity........32 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming north 5 to 6 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......3100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 6 to 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2100 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (35600 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............5.
ADI.................6 early in the morning increasing to 50 in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............40  47  54  58  62  64  66  67  68  65
RH..............100 79  61  55  46  41  36  34  32  35
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..3   4   5   6   6   6   6   6   5   5
20 FT wind gust.5   6   8   11  11  11  11  11  8   8
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 1.0 1.5 2.1 2.4 2.8 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.8
Transp wind dir.NW  N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.6   7   9   12  13  13  13  14  14  13
LVORI...........8   4   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............6   10  19  30  38  45  50  50  49  44
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..2   6   13  21  26  31  36  35  34  31
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (0-5 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 41.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 3 to 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (17600 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (700 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
LVORI...............5.
ADI.................2 to 26.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............62  57  52  50  49  47  46  45  44  44  43  43
RH..............41  51  63  71  74  83  86  86  89  89  93  93
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..4   3   2   2   2   2   2   1   1   1   1   1
20 FT wind gust.6   5   3   3   3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2
Mix hgt (kft)...2.0 1.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.10  7   5   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
LVORI...........2   2   3   3   3   5   5   5   7   7   7   7
ADI.............26  3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..18  7   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 70.
Min humidity........39 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming northeast around 5 mph
                    late in the morning, then becoming light late
                    in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......3600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 3 to 10 mph shifting to the northeast 8
                    to 13 mph late in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (900 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair (29600 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............5.
ADI.................2 to 42.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........0      0      0      0      0      0
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............43     45     58     66     69     70
RH..............96     96     67     50     42     39
20 ft wind......N 2    N 3    N 4    N 5    NE 5   NE 4
20 ft wind gust.3      5      6      8      8      6
Mix hgt (ft)....300    400    1700   2700   3600   2900
Transport wind..N 3    N 5    NE 10  NE 13  NE 9   NE 8
LVORI...........8      7      3      1      1      1
ADI.............2      5      23     42     40     31
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4      4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..1      2      15     29     29     21
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

$$
Forecaster...MILLER
Requested by...Ken Sterner
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2424270.1/AKQ
.DELDT 10/18/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL ken.sterner@dof.virginia.gov,lisa.deaton@dof.virginia.gov