784
FXUS61 KAKQ 172324
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
724 PM EDT Sun Aug 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front drops south into the area tonight into Monday and
lingers across the area into mid-week. The front finally crosses
the area on Wednesday with below average temperatures expected
later this week. Hurricane Erin will make its closest approach
by Wednesday and Thursday. Impacts will be felt well outside the
forecast cone including large waves, dangerous rip currents,
and the potential for gusty winds along the coast and over the
waters.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 130 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Hot and dry conditions today and heat indices may approach
  100 degrees in a few locations.

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible later
  this evening into tonight.

A bit of a unique set up over the region this afternoon with the
"driest" air located along the coast as drier air is getting
wrapped into the backside of the low located off the Carolina
coast (seen in GOES WV imagery). Dewpoint are in the 60s to
even upper 50s closer to the coast while dewpoints are in the
70s further inland. High pressure is also situated south of the
area. Skies range from clear/sunny across the eastern half of
the area to mostly sunny further inland. A few showers have
tried to develop over Charlotte and Halifax counties just west
of the forecast area, but would not expect these to make much
progress further east with the drier air in place. High
temperatures are still on track for the low to mid 90s most of
the area. Heat indices will approach the upper 90s to around
100 across the western half of the area where we are seeing the
higher dewpoints.

Most 17/12z CAMs still depict some scattered showers/thunderstorms
dropping into central VA, the Northern Neck, and the lower MD
Eastern Shore this evening, with this activity dissipating
overnight. Any showers/thunderstorms this evening will be well
in advance of a cold front, with the boundary dropping into
northern portions of the area by late tonight. PoPs for these
locations are 20-40%, with 20% or less elsewhere. Cannot
completely rule out an isolated stronger wind gust and/or some
locally heavy rainfall, but the overall threat is low. Forecast
lows tonight are mainly in the lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- A cold front lingers over the area Monday into Tuesday leading to
unsettled conditions.

The cold front settles into the area on Monday and stalls over the
region Tuesday into Wednesday. Onshore flow develops behind the
front on Monday leading to unsettled conditions as well as more
widespread cloud cover. Temperatures on Monday will be tricky and
ultimately depend on how quickly (and how far south) the front drops
into the area. We may see a scenario where temperatures stay in the
70s across northern portions of the area and may even fall during
the day as a wedge sets up over the region. For now continued with
the NBM, which has highs around 80 north to around 90 south, but we
will may see this trend down on future forecasts. Isolated to
scattered showers will be possible on Monday with the front in the
area, but the best thunderstorm potential should mainly be limited
to far southern portions of the area. Lows Monday night dip back in
the mid-upper 60s across northern and western portions of the area
to the lower 70s southeast. Cooler and unsettled conditions linger
into Tuesday with the front still stalled somewhere across the local
area. Temperatures will range from the mid-upper 70s north to the
mid 80s south (these could trend lower). Isolated to scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms will again be possible Tuesday
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Hurricane Erin is likely to stay well offshore of the local area
as it makes its closest approach later this week. However, impacts
will happen well outside of the forecast cone, with large waves,
strong rip currents, coastal flooding, and gusty winds along the
coast all possible.

- Cooler temperatures with isolated-scattered showers and
thunderstorms possible Wednesday and Thursday as a cold front drops
south. Temperatures remain comfortable by the later portion of the
week.

The main focus for mid to late week will be Hurricane Erin and just
how close it tracks to the local area. The general 17/12z
ensemble/model consensus continues to show the system recurving well
offshore away from our area. This is thanks to the amplification of
a trough to our north by mid-week which will shunt the upper ridge
back to the west. As this trough drops southward, it will create a
weakness in the flow aloft and steer Erin towards the north then
northeast. We do however want to stress that impacts from this storm
will occur well away from the center due to an expanding storm/wind-
field as it moves north into higher latitudes. The main threats are
still for large waves, dangerous rip currents, and coastal flooding
(see more details below), but we may also see a period of wind gusts
to near tropical storm force along the immediate coast (especially
south of Virginia Beach) later Wednesday into Thursday. In addition,
it is possible some outer rainbands may clip far southeastern
portions of the area, potentially bringing localized areas of heavy
rain or stronger winds. Continue to monitor the latest from NHC in
regards to Hurricane Erin.

Otherwise, a stronger cold front crosses the area later Wednesday
into Thursday (helping to push Erin out to sea). Cooler/more
comfortable weather later in the week with highs in the upper 70s to
mid 80s and dewpoints in the 60s. Shower/tstm chances are forecast
to remain in the 20-30% range Wednesday/Thursday. However, Thursday
is trending drier based on the latest guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 725 PM EDT Sunday...

Mostly clear skies and VFR conditions are being seen across all
terminals early this evening. Winds continue to be light out of
the S to SE between 5 to 10 kt. Through the 0z TAF period a
chance of showers and thunderstorms are possible for SBY and
RIC. Showers and thunderstorms have initiated across northern VA
and south central MD. It is these thunderstorms that will move
through those terminals ~2 to 6z. A PROB30 remains in TAF
instead of a TEMPO due to uncertainty. These showers could
potentially weaken due to the loss of day time heating before
they reach the terminals. Trends will continue to be monitored.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will continue across all terminals
besides the possible brief MVFR and IFR conditions from the
showers and storms at SBY and RIC.

Outlook: Sub-VFR CIGs develop for much of the area tomorrow
morning and likely continue through Monday night/Tuesday morning
due to continued onshore flow. In addition, passing afternoon
showers or thunderstorms may also result in sub-VFR conditions
tomorrow through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories have been introduced for the coastal
  waters Monday afternoon/early Tuesday morning as a back door
  cold front increases wave heights and NE winds.

- Large swell and a high risk of rip currents are expected as
  early as Monday and continuing through Wednesday and Thursday
  as Hurricane Erin tracks through the western Atlantic.

- High risk of rip currents Monday at the northern beaches as
  seas build with stronger onshore flow behind the cold front.
  Dangerous rip currents are likely with Hurricane Erin through
  the majority of the week and possibly into the weekend.

The latest wx analysis shows the low pressure system off the NC
coast and high pressure over the New England area remaining in
place. There isn`t a strong pressure gradient between the two,
allowing light 5-10 kt NE winds at this time. Winds will begin to
increase Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning as a back door cold
front moves into the area. The front will likely lose its forcing
before moving through the entire FA, which should keep winds just
below SCA criteria at 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the coastal
waters. In the Ches. Bay, winds will reach 10-15 kt with gusts up to
20 kt. With this front and stronger NE winds, seas will increase to
5-7 ft (2-4 ft in the Ches. Bay) tomorrow afternoon and Tuesday
morning. Small Craft Advisories have been introduced because of the
waves, starting in the northern coastal waters tomorrow afternoon
and gradually adding all the zones through Tuesday morning as the
front moves south. Waves and seas will remain elevated through most,
if not all, of the forecast period at this time.

Hurricane Erin remains a major hurricane, now a Cat 3 with maximum
sustained winds are 125 mph north of the Dominican Republic and
Puerto Rico moving NW. Erin continues to be forecast to remain
offshore. The wind field of Hurricane Erin is forecast to become
quite expansive over the next few days and the gradient between the
high to the NE and Hurricane Erin will cause NE winds to remain
elevated on Tuesday behind the front. As Erin shifts further north
offshore, the increased pressure gradient will be the strongest mid
to late this week with strong winds at 25-30 kt with gusts up to 34
kt on the coastal waters and 15-20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the
Ches. Bay likely Wednesday night through at least late Thursday. The
local wind probability of 34 kt gusts remains low, but with a slight
increase from previous runs. Overall, would not be surprised to see
a few gusts at or slightly above 34 kt.

The main threat with Hurricane Erin will be the large waves. Waves
and seas will remain elevated behind the cold front before the
influence of Erin reaches the area. Then ramping up to peak early
Thursday morning at 8-12 ft, occasionally up to 14 ft (4-6 ft in
the Ches. Bay). Waves greater than 5 ft will likely linger through
the week in the coastal waters.

With the continued onshore flow and increasing periods, a moderate
rip current risk remains today. A high risk of rip currents will be
in effect for the northern beaches tomorrow as seas and long periods
build with the onshore flow. A moderate risk will remain for the
southern beaches since seas are slower to build further south. High
risk of rip currents will likely continue through the majority of
the week and possibility into the weekend.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 330 PM EDT Sunday...

As Hurricane Erin approaches the offshore, strong NE winds will
help funnel water into the Ches. Bay. Minor tidal flooding is
possible with the high tide as early as Monday night/Tuesday
morning on the west side of the bay. Once Erin approaches closer
offshore mid week, minor to moderate flooding is likely for
most gauges.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Monday to 7 AM EDT Wednesday
     for ANZ650.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Monday to 7 AM EDT Wednesday
     for ANZ652.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Tuesday to 7 AM EDT Wednesday
     for ANZ654.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Tuesday to 7 AM EDT Wednesday
     for ANZ656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB/AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJB
SHORT TERM...AJB/AJZ
LONG TERM...AJB/AJZ
AVIATION...AJB/HET
MARINE...KMC/NB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...