917
FXUS61 KAKQ 111455
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1055 AM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Spring-like weather returns today as high pressure builds into the
area. A backdoor cold front crosses the area on Wednesday, bringing
cooler weather to coastal areas. The boundary lingers near the area
Thursday into Friday before eventually lifting north of the area
Saturday as a stronger system approaches.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1055 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- A taste of Spring returns to the area this afternoon with
  temperatures climbing into the 70s (inland) under a mainly
  sunny sky.

Latest analysis reveals ~992mb sfc low pressure now well
offshore of the NC Outer Banks. To the south, 1018+mb sfc high
pressure continued to build across the west-central gulf coast,
with cold 1020+mb high pressure building across the Canadian
Prairies into the northern plains and upper midwest. Aloft,
broad, relatively flat upper ridging currently building over the
gulf coast and deep south will build east through tonight.
Resultant downslope flow will allow for plentiful sunshine and a
mild early Spring afternoon with high pressure in control. It
will be pleasant with highs still on track for low to mid 70s
for much of the area, with cooler upper 50s to mid 60s along the
immediate coast.

By tonight, low pressure traversing central Quebec will exit
into Atlantic Canada, dragging a cold front across the interior
northeast and northern mid-Atlantic. Meanwhile, ridging at the
surface and aloft will quickly push offshore ahead of the front
approaching from the north. Lows will generally be in the low to
mid 40s under a mainly clear sky.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- A backdoor cold front crosses part of the area on Wednesday.
Temperatures  may struggle to get out of the 50s near the coast.

- The front gradually lifts back to the north during the day
Thursday.

A backdoor cold front slides southwest across the area from the
northeast during the day on Wednesday before eventually stalling
over the area. As one would expect, there will be a decent
temperature gradient across the area on Wednesday afternoon, with
areas along the Maryland Atlantic beaches falling into the 40s,
while areas across our southwest will likely be in the upper 70s, if
not approaching 80 degrees. The further northeast you are, the
earlier highs will occur during the day, with temperatures falling
as the front drops SW. Rain is not expected with the front. Low
temperatures Wednesday night drop into the 40s, making for a
seasonable mid-March night.

Thursday may also turn out to be a tricky day temperature-wise with
the front still lingering across the region. Certain guidance, such
as the 00z NAM/NAMNest drops the front well south of the area
Wednesday night and is slow to lift it back north, which would
realistically keep much of the area in the 50s or lower 60s. At this
time, the NAM is an outlier with much of the other guidance stalling
the front across our NE areas and lifting it back north on Thursday.
Still, this will be something we will need to keep an eye on over
the next 24 hours, potentially leading to changes in the Thursday
forecast. Highs Thursday range from the low to mid 70s for most
inland areas and 60s for the Eastern Shore and areas near the
Chesapeake Bay. Thursday night will again feature lows in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 320 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Dry weather and above average temperatures prevail late this week.

- A stronger system impacts the area on Sunday leading to increasing
shower chances. A few thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon
and evening.

The lingering boundary tries to nudge back into the area on Friday,
allowing for winds to turn onshore. As a result, highs on Friday
have trended lower, especially near the coast/along the Eastern
Shore where we will only see highs in the 50s and 60s. Further
inland, highs are generally in the upper 60s to mid 70s. It`s
possible that we may see these readings trend down further with
future forecasts. Saturday will likely be the warmest day of the
period as temps make a run at 80F in areas west of the Ches Bay.
There is a slight chc of a shower late Saturday. A very strong
(~975mb) low pressure system lifts into the Upper Midwest on
Saturday before tracking through Ontario on Sunday. This feature
will drag a cold front toward the area, leading to a very good
chance for widespread showers across the region during the day on
Sunday. Temps likely rise into the 70s on Sunday with dew pts
potentially in the lower 60s. As a result, some instability will
likely be present across the area on Sunday, so have kept a slight
chance of thunder across portions of the are Sunday aftn/evening. In
addition, it is still looking like we`ll see widespread rain, and
ensemble guidance shows moderate to high (50-80%) probabilities for
>0.50" of rain across the entire area on Sunday. Precip potentially
continues into Monday morning and potentially early Monday afternoon
behind the front before it dries out. The airmass behind the front
early next week won`t be that cold, as temps are forecast to drop
back to around average by Mon.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 700 AM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions will prevail through the 12z/11 TAF period.
Lingering BKN-OVC cloud cover over the far SE will gradually
clear from NW to SE as we head through the morning hours.
Otherwise, clear skies are expected across all local terminals
today. Light and variable winds through much of the forecast
period of RIC and SBY. NE winds at the SE TAF sites gradually
diminish and back to the N as we head through this morning and
into the afternoon. A light SW wind then develops later this
afternoon into tonight.

Outlook: A back-door cold front will move through part of the
area Wednesday, but no precip or sub-VFR conditions are expected
during its passage.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 320 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories in effect for the southern coastal  waters
and Currituck Sound through late tonight as low pressure passes S of
the area.

- Quieter marine conditions prevail for the rest of the week.

An area of low pressure is situated of the NC coast early this
morning and is gradually making its way NE. The pressure gradient
just N of the low to yield relatively elevated onshore flow for the
southern waters this morning. Latest obs indicate NE winds 10-15kt S
of Cape Charles, 5-10kt N. Buoys show 5-6ft seas in the NC waters, 3-
4ft between Cape Charles and the NC border, and 1-2ft N of Cape
Charles. Waves are generally around 1ft, but 1-2ft in the lower bay.
SCAs are in effect for the the coastal waters S of Cape Charles and
the Currituck Sound. Winds become more northerly this morning as the
low pulls away, remaining at 15-20kt in the S, 5-10kt in the N.
Winds then diminish and turn S through the afternoon and evening,
then stay around 10kt overnight. Seas S of Cape Charles will be 4-
6ft through this afternoon, 3-4ft N. Seas of 3-4ft for all zones
expected tonight.

A backdoor cold front sags across the region Wed, turning winds back
to the NE through Wed morning. While winds generally look to remain
around 10kt, there could be a brief increase to ~15 over northern
coastal waters. Seas of 3-4ft persist through the day. Sub-SCA
conditions are anticipated through the end of the week with flow
generally onshore around 10kt. The next chance at SCAs will be over
the weekend with southerly flow ahead of a strong front.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB/ERI
NEAR TERM...AJB/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJB
LONG TERM...AJB/ERI
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...AC