454
FXUS61 KAKQ 281754
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
154 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A backdoor cold front will shift slowly northward today. As
this front lifts north away from the area, expect daily diurnal
rain chances Saturday through early next week. Well above normal
temperatures will continue through next week, with a possible
frontal passage early/mid next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 955 AM EDT Saturday...

- Temperatures increase this afternoon as a warm front lifts
  northward.

- Isolated strong to severe storms possible along the northern
  fringe of the local area and MD Eastern Shore counties.

The latest surface analysis depicts a warm front across
southern VA. Temperatures N of the boundary are generally in the
lower to mid 70s, with lower 80s S of the front. Areas of fog N
of the warm front have lifted, and stratus clouds are gradually
eroding. High temperatures today will return to the lower 90s.
Heat indices are forecast to reach the upper 90s to lower 100s,
but should remain under Heat Advisory criteria. With the front
moving out of our area later today, we will lose a triggering
mechanism for afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms. While
afternoon/evening thunderstorms are still possible mainly in
the W/N counties, they will not be as high in coverage. A few
storms that develop along the front in the northern counties
later this afternoon could become strong to severe, and SPC has
the very northern fringes of forecast area and the MD Eastern
Shore counties in a Marginal Risk for severe weather, with
isolated damaging wind gusts the main threat. Overnight,
temperatures will drop into the lower to mid 70s and skies will
continue to clear.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 352 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Hot weather continues into early next week, with chance of
  afternoon thunderstorms Sunday and Monday.

With the back door front well north of the area and generally zonal
flow aloft expected, diurnal convection Sunday and Monday should
remain isolated to scattered despite high PW values and good daytime
heating. Though the upper ridge that has been parked across the
region the past week will be gradually weakening and shifting
offshore, it will still help keep temperatures above normal Sunday
and Monday, with highs in the lower to mid 90s expected. Heat
indices will range between 97-104F, however, some areas could see a
brief period of 105F+ heat indices so a Heat Advisory may be
required. We will continue to monitor any trends in temperatures and
dew points and issue one if deemed necessary. On Monday, another
front will be advancing towards our area from the west, pulling even
higher PW values to the region. Temperatures will drop into the low
to mid 70s each night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 352 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Frontal passage Tuesday into early Wednesday, bringing some
  relief to the area.

The front will approach the area on Tuesday, with increasing rain
chances by the afternoon. With partly cloudy skies and lower rain
chances Tuesday morning combined with increasing southwesterly flow
ahead of the front, temperatures will still potentially be able to
reach the lower to mid 90s, making for one last oppressively hot day
(for now). Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will move
through the area ahead of and along the front Tuesday afternoon
through early Wednesday morning. The front may stall near the NC/ VA
border, which would bring increased rain chances to SE VA and NE NC
Wednesday through potentially Thursday. Though the front is on the
weaker side in terms of airmass change, temperatures are still
expected to drop a few degrees on Wednesday with highs in the upper
80s to near 90 degrees. The main source of relief will come in the
form of slightly lower dew points, leading to lowered heat indices.
A secondary front is forecast to move through Thursday morning,
dropping dew points into the upper 60s to lower 70s. An upper ridge
will start to build across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic by late
next week after the frontal passage, so temperatures will quickly
rebound back into the 90s by Thursday/Friday. Luckily, the lower dew
points look to linger through at least the first part of the
weekend, and the heat index is forecast to *only* reach the 90s
Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 155 PM EDT Saturday...

High pressure is centered off the Southeast coast as of 18z,
with a residual warm front washing out across the Delmarva. VFR
with SCT aftn CU and generally a light SW wind, although locally
NE at ORF with the sea-breeze. Primarily VFR for the 28/18z TAF
period. MVFR vsby is possible at SBY later tonight through
sunrise Sunday at SBY in closer proximity to the residual
boundary. There is a slight chc of showers/tstms this
aftn/evening, and then a 20-40% chc of showers/tstms Sunday
aftn. The wind will generally be light out of the SW tonight
into Sunday, and locally variable in/near any showers/tstms.

VFR conditions are primarily expected through the middle of
next week. There is a chc of aftn/evening showers/tstms Monday,
with higher confidence/more coverage of showers/tstms Tuesday
ahead of a cold front. Chcs of aftn/evening showers/tstms
gradually push S with the cold front Wednesday/Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- A marine Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect through 7 AM
  this morning across the coastal waters north of Parramore
  Island.

- Generally benign marine conditions through Monday (outside of
  convection), with SCA conditions possible Tuesday/early
  Wednesday in association with a stronger cold front.

The latest analysis indicates a weak frontal boundary in place
near the VA-NC border, with generally E winds N of the front,
and SSW winds across NC waters S of the boundary. Seas are ~4ft
across the northern coastal waters, and ~3 ft over the south.
Waves were 1-2 ft. Additionally, areas of marine dense fog
continue N of Parramore Island.

Winds are expected to slowly veer to the SSE towards sunrise
across the lower Bay, and eventually to the SW. It will take
awhile longer to the north, where winds may stay light and
variable into the aftn. Obs show 7-8 second wave periods
a combination of E-NE swell and some wind waves, which will
lead to seas staying elevated a bit at ~3-4 ft through tonight.

Great Lakes low pressure swings across New England late tonight
into Sunday, dropping another weak boundary across the northern
waters Sunday morning. This should act to briefly turning winds
to the NW overnight into Sunday, with winds turning onshore by
aftn before again turning back SSW Sunday night as the low lifts
out and takes the front with it. The next system approaches for
late Monday night/Tuesday. The gradient with ahead of that will
be stronger, such that some low- end SCAs are looking likely for
the Bay/rivers Monday night into Tuesday morning, before that
front washes out across the southern portions of the FA Tuesday
night through midweek.

A Moderate Rip Current Risk remains in place today over the
northern waters, with Low Rip Risk through the weekend over
southern waters.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AC/NB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/NB
SHORT TERM...NB
LONG TERM...NB
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...LKB/MAM