071
FXUS61 KAKQ 100738
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
338 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains north of the area today with dry and
sensible weather. A coastal low develops off the Southeast
coast later today into Saturday, tracking north toward the area
Saturday night and Sunday. Heavy rain, windy conditions, and
coastal flood impacts are likely near the coast. The low
lingers just offshore into early next week, finally moving away
by Tuesday. Dry and cooler weather returns and prevails for the
middle and end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

- Dry with increasing clouds today. High temps in the mid/upper
  60s to around 70 F.

One more day of dry and relatively pleasant weather is expected
before deteriorating conditions overspread the area tomorrow from a
coastal low. This morning, ~1036 mb sfc high pressure is centered
over southern New England, ridging S/SW into the Mid-Altantic and
Carolinas. A diffuse sfc trough is also located offshore of the
southeast coast to our south. The pressure gradient between these
features is leading to continued onshore flow and breezy conditions
at the coast. Further inland, winds are lighter, generally around 5
MPH. Nighttime satellite imagery shows partly cloudy skies with some
low-mid level moisture over the area. The temperature forecast is a
bit tricky this morning as clouds and the light wind could prevent
most locations from ideally radiating. Still, expect chilly lows in
the 40s inland and 50s closer to the coast. While some upper 30s are
possible well NW of Richmond, expect these readings (if they do
occur) to be few and far between. Frost is not expected.

High pressure keeps us dry through the rest of the day. However,
well to our S, a weak low will develop just offshore of the GA/FL
coast in response to approaching upper-level forcing. This feature
will begin to funnel higher clouds over the local area later this
afternoon, with thickening cloud cover through the day and mostly
cloudy skies expected by this evening and tonight. High
temperatures range from the mid-upper 60s N to around 70 F for
southern VA and NE NC. Lows tonight should be quite mild across
the SE (around 60 F) and seasonably cool elsewhere (upper 40s to
mid 50s).

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

- A potentially significant coastal low impacts the region
  Saturday into early next week, bringing rain, wind, and
  coastal flooding hazards. Confidence remains on the lower side
  given diverging model solutions, but areas near the coast
  continue to have the highest chances of seeing impacts.

A coastal low is still expected to impact the region from later
Saturday into at least Sunday. However, a good deal of forecast
complexities remain. There is good agreement among the model
guidance that the aforementioned low that develops offshore of GA/FL
later today will slowly lift north toward the NC/SC coast Saturday.
Beyond that time, there remains larger-than-normal divergence across
the deterministic and ensemble guidance. There are differences on
both the track and evolution of the low, as well as the strength. In
general, the GFS/GEFS suite continues to advertise a more well-
defined low that tracks near or just offshore of the VA/NC coasts
Saturday night into Sunday. The EPS/ECMWF suite shows a weaker, less-
defined, and more sprawling low that initially remains to our S
Sunday, with a secondary low eventually becoming the dominant
feature offshore the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England
coasts by Monday. The Canadian and NAM also track the low northward
near our coastline, but they are a bit more offshore than the GFS.
It will be interesting to see how CAMs handle and depict this low as
we get closer to the event. In fact, some of the currently available
CAMs show some potential for mesoscale enhancements to the low
strength and winds/rain.

All of this model talk aside, our best go at the forecast has rain
beginning to overspread NE NC and southern VA by Saturday afternoon
as the low tracks northward. The core of the heaviest rain is then
expected to track through eastern portions of the area late Saturday
night into Sunday morning. While the coverage and rain amounts are
uncertain (these are closely tied to the track of the low), there is
high confidence in rain for most areas E of I-95 early Sunday
morning and PoPs have again been adjusted upward into the 70-80%
range for these areas. Forecast rain totals are highest E of I-95
and a maxima of 2-3" extends from the coast to about 50-75 miles
inland. A few spots could exceed 3-4" and the highest probabilities
of these higher amounts are along the coast and in far SE VA
and NE NC. Rainfall amounts taper off in the I-95 corridor to
1-1.5", with 1" or less in the Piedmont. A Slight (Level 2 out
5) excessive rainfall risk remains in place for coastal NE NC
and SE VA Saturday night and on the VA/MD Eastern Shore Sunday.
Given dry antecedent conditions, will be holding off on any
Flood Watches at this time. However, one could eventually be
required if confidence increases in those higher totals being
realized and/or the CAMs become particularly enthusiastic on
mesoscale or convectively-enhanced rainfall.

The other aspect to the forecast are the winds. Breezy conditions
are expected areawide from Saturday afternoon into early next week.
However, the most focused area of higher winds should again remain
confined to the coast Saturday night into Sunday (in closer
proximity to the low). Increasingly frequent wind gusts to 40-50 mph
are expected at the coast for most of the day Sunday, with the best
potential for 55+ mph on the Atlantic-facing side of the Eastern
Shore, including up around Ocean City. Wind Advisories are a good
bet for most zones near the coast and if some of the higher-end
scenarios were to materialize, High Wind Watches/Warnings could also
be needed for some spots. As with the rainfall forecast, the winds
are very dependent on the track of the low. A weaker and broader low
(as depicted in the 00z deterministic ECMWF) would portend to lower
winds than what is highlighted in our forecast.

For temperatures, highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s are expected
Saturday, with cooler temps in the mid-upper 60s areawide Sunday.
Overnight lows should be around 60 F Saturday night and in the 50s
Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Chances for rain and breezy conditions persist into Monday as
  the coastal low lingers offshore.

- Slowly drying out Tuesday and especially by the middle and
  end of next week.

Uncertainty is highest in the Monday and Tuesday timeframe as the
low could either remain offshore and slowly spin down or potentially
rotate back toward the Mid-Atlantic coast. Should the later scenario
materialize, unsettled, breezy, and wet conditions would
persist through Tuesday. If it remains well offshore, improving
conditions would be expected by later Monday. Either way, by
this time, the low should be rather weak with only lighter
rainfall and lower winds. Still expect it to be quite breezy
Monday as winds turn to the NW. The blended approach from the
NBM keeps chance to likely PoPs for eastern and northeastern
portions of the area through Monday night, with slight chance
PoPs lingering into Tuesday. Overall, this seems reasonable and
see no reason to adjust these values.

The model consensus then is for high pressure to build down toward
the region from the upper Great Lakes by midweek as a mainly dry
cold front moves through. Therefore, more sensible and drier wx is
expected by then. Forecast highs through most of next week are
generally in the mid-upper 60s, with the best shot of any 70s across
the SE. These temps are a bit below seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 AM EDT Friday...

Predominantly VFR is expected at all terminals through the
06z/10 period. SCT (locally BKN) low-mid clouds are present over
most of the area this morning, but CIGs are 3500 ft or higher.
Closer to sunrise, expect additional lower clouds to move
onshore from the NE. These CIGs are also expected to remain VFR,
but cannot rule out some high-end MVFR. Either way, cloud cover
thickens through the day, with increasing high clouds later in
the afternoon as well. NE winds with gusts of 15-25 kts will
continue at the coastal sites through this afternoon, with 5-10
kt sustained winds at the inland terminals.

Outlook: Sub-VFR CIGs, elevated winds, and moderate to heavy
rain are likely as we head into later Saturday as low pressure
develops offshore. Periods of sub-VFR conditions likely continue
through the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 340 PM EDT Thursday..

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisory conditions persist across most of the local
  waters through Saturday.

- Low pressure develops south of the area this weekend. While uncertainty
  remains, dangerous marine conditions are forecast from
  Saturday evening into early next week. Storm and Gale Watches
  continue unchanged from the previous forecast.

1034mb high pressure has moved into the Great Lakes region while
yesterday`s front is now well south (northern FL) of the local area.
Waves in the bay are 2-3 ft with seas offshore 4-5 ft N and 5-7 ft
S. The pressure gradient remains steep across the region with NE
winds generally 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. We are in a bit of a
lull in winds late this afternoon, but an additional surge of cooler
air should bring a modest increase in winds this evening into early
tonight. Winds again decrease Friday into the first part of
Saturday, but the forecast retains 15-20 kt winds in the southern
waters through Saturday.

The main focus continues to be the developing coastal low Saturday,
which will track northward over or close to our waters Sunday into
Monday. The exact evolution of the low remains of low confidence at
this point, in fact, uncertainty has actually increased with the 12z
guidance suite. The GFS now shows a slightly inland track across the
region while the remaining guidance keeps the circulation center
well offshore. This disconnect has rather significant differences in
wind speed and direction over the local waters. Therefore, did not
stray too far from the previous forecast pending (hopefully) more
clarity over the next 24 hours. Regardless of the track/intensity
details, there remains high confidence for significant marine
hazards, including high winds (potentially to Storm force) and
dangerous seas. NE winds increase considerably later Saturday into
Saturday night, with the peak in the winds Sunday into early Monday
as the low makes its closest approach to the area. Peak wind gusts
range from 45-50 kt on the coastal waters, 40-45 kt in the
Chesapeake Bay, and 35-40 kt in the upper tidal rivers. Left the
Gale and Storm Watch headlines unchanged with this forecast cycle.
There is the potential for expansion of the Storm Watch into the
Mouth of the Chesapeake Bay but was not comfortable making changes
with the very disjointed 12z guidance. Most guidance has backed off
on the potential for the low to stall offshore it occludes late
Monday into Tuesday and the models that still show this scenario
have a much weaker low pivoting around. Accordingly, have decreased
winds a bit from the previous forecast Tuesday and Wednesday. The
gradient finally starts to relax by mid week with improving marine
conditions. Seas are forecast to peak in the 13-17 ft range, with
higher values not out of the realm of possibility. Waves in the
Chesapeake Bay range between 5-8 ft, with 9-10 ft possible at the
mouth of the bay. As winds decrease next week, so will the seas, but
only gradually.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 910 PM EDT Thursday..

The next high tide cycle is the lower astronomical tide compared
to this morning and the subsequent cycle on Friday morning, so
only nuisance tidal flooding is expected tonight. That being said,
this morning`s high tide over performed in a few spots and
guidance shows the potential for another round of minor
flooding across the lower Ches Bay, lower James River, and
Currituck Outer Banks for Friday morning`s high tide. As such,
have issued a Coastal Flood Advisory for these areas.

Tidal anomalies remain level through early Saturday, with
another round of minor flooding possible during the Saturday
morning high tide across a similar region as the current Coastal
Flood Advisory. Tidal anomalies rise quickly late Saturday
through Sunday with widespread moderate to locally major coastal
flooding possible by Sunday. The highest confidence is across
the Ches Bay (especially the lower bay) and across locations
adjacent to the ocean. Water levels will be highly dependent on
the track of the low and the associated wind direction. The 18z
guidance suite has not aided in clarifying these details and was
notably lower with the highest predicted high tides compared to
earlier model guidance. Given how much lower the new model
guidance (ETSS and PETSS) was and the low confidence on the
exact track, have trended the forecast lower for many sites and
now have predominantly moderate coastal flooding on Sunday with
locally major across the lower bay. Will note that this is
dependent upon the exact track of the low and once models come
to a better consensus, confidence in the exact water levels
(and flood stages) will increase. The high tide cycle in the
late morning- early afternoon of Sunday continues to look the
most problematic, though additional flooding is possible into
early next week. Given the uncertainty and how far out the event
is, will hold off on any Coastal Flood Watches for now, but
they will likely be needed in subsequent forecasts.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 1 PM EDT this
     afternoon for NCZ102.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 4 PM EDT
     this afternoon for VAZ093-095>098-100-524-525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ630-
     631-650-652.
     Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Monday morning for
     ANZ630>632-634>638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ632-634-
     654-656.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ633.
     Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Monday morning for
     ANZ633-658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ638.
     Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Monday morning for
     ANZ650-652-654-656.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...RHR/SW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...