008
FXUS61 KAKQ 230213
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1013 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front crosses the area today bringing showers and
thunderstorms to the northern portions of the area. Drier and cooler
conditions return Friday into Saturday as high pressure briefly
builds in. Unsettled weather moves back in later Sunday into early
next week as another series of systems impacts the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 1015 PM Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will push off the coast
  of southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina.

- Drier air arrives overnight.

Scattered showers/tstms are waning in intensity over SE VA and
NE NC late this evening. This activity should push offshore
through midnight as drier air arrives from the NW. Temperatures
are mainly in the upper 50s to mid 60s late this evening. Most
places will keep the passing mid to high level clouds around
tonight. Overnight low temperatures will hover around the 50
degree mark inland, with mid 50s by the coast. Typical cooler
spots, such as Louisa and surrounding locations could dip into
the upper 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Dry and cooler weather is expected through the first half of the
Memorial Day Weekend.

The coastal low will depart its vacation house in Nantucket Friday
morning and heads towards coastal Maine as a trough fills in behind
it across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. This may allow a shower or
two to linger across the coast on Friday, especially on the Maryland
Eastern Shore. The rest of the area will remain dry under mostly
sunny skies as high pressure nudges in from the west. To the north,
expect more partly to mostly cloudy skies. Highs will be in the low
to mid 70s for most everyone, with upper 60s for the Eastern Shore.
Skies will be clear overnight, allowing low temperatures to fall
into the mid to upper 40s inland, with 50s near the coast.

High pressure will be overhead on Saturday giving way to a pleasant
start to the holiday weekend. Mostly clear skies and highs in the
mid 70s south/lower 70s north are expected. Overnight lows will once
again drop into the upper 40s inland, with 50s closer to the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 PM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Becoming unsettled later Sunday into next week as multiple systems
approach the region.

Models continue to show another system approaching the region later
Sunday that could bring some rainfall to our area. Timing of arrival
for the rainfall continues to trend slightly slower and be
suppressed further south, which hopefully means we can salvage most
of Sunday with dry weather. Though, there will definitely be
increasing cloud cover regardless. High temperatures Sunday will
range from the low to mid 70s if the timing trends don`t bring the
rain in any earlier in the day. The Memorial Day holiday on Monday
may feature cloudy skies and scattered rain showers/storms, so keep
an eye on the forecast updates over the next several days if you
have outside plans to see how this system evolves. The weather
pattern looks to remain much more unsettled for the rest of the work
week as several weather systems pass through the area bringing rain
chances. Temperatures will continue to run below average for late
May, with highs mainly in the 70s each day (some 80s far SE) and
overnight lows in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1015 PM EDT Thursday...

Mainly VFR late this evening with the exception of some patchy
IFR stratus around SBY. Scattered showers/tstms linger over SE
VA and NE NC and may briefly impact ORF and ECG. Drier air
arrives from the NW overnight with a NW wind of 5-10kt. Dry and
VFR conditions prevail Friday with a WNW wind of 10-15kt.

Outlook: Dry and VFR conditions continue Friday night into
Saturday. However, can`t rule out a stray shower across the
Eastern Shore on Friday. A better chance of showers and degraded
flight conditions return later Sunday into Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 340 PM EDT Thursday...

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect through this evening and
  early tonight. Elevated seas on the ocean may persist for the
  next day or two.

- Additional Small Craft Advisories possible Friday afternoon
  and again Friday night.

- Lighter winds return for the holiday weekend.

Gusty westerly winds have developed this afternoon behind a cold
front, especially in the lower Chesapeake Bay, tidal rivers, and
nearshore coastal waters. Winds speeds are generally 15-20 kt with
gusts to 25 kt, though a few elevated sites are in the 20-25 kt
range with occasional gusts to 30 kt. Much lower wind speeds are
present in the upper bay and earlier Small Craft Advisories there
were cancelled. Elsewhere, SCAs are in effect for the James and York
Rivers through 23z/7 PM, lower bay through 02z/10 PM, and coastal
waters until 05z/1 AM Friday (except ANZ656, which ends the
evening). The SCAs on the coastal waters are mainly due to elevated
seas from the offshore low pressure`s swell. Seas range from 3-4 ft
S to 4-8 ft N. In fact, buoy 44009 offshore of the MD/DE border has
consistently been reporting 8-9 ft seas this afternoon. Based on
this, seas may continue to run high through the night and additional
extensions to the ocean SCAs may be required. Otherwise, beyond
tonight, a persistent period of near SCA criteria winds is expected
Friday through Saturday morning with two elevated wind periods of
higher confidence: in the lower bay and in the rivers Friday
afternoon with gusty westerly flow and for the entire bay and
perhaps coastal waters Friday night due to a push of cold advection.
These winds will also increase bay waves to 2-3 ft.

Lower winds and seas are expected Saturday and Sunday with transient
high pressure sliding over the area. Unsettled weather and degraded
marine conditions potentially return early next week as low pressure
tracks near the area.

A HIGH risk of rip currents is forecast this afternoon for northern
beaches with MODERATE for southern beaches. A moderate risk of rip
currents is forecast at all beaches Friday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 345 PM EDT Thursday...

Tidal anomalies are still running high (between 1-2` above MLLW)
this afternoon, despite the offshore wind direction. Given this,
another cycle of nuisance to low-end minor flooding is expected
with the high tide cycle this evening/tonight. Coastal Flood
Statements have been issued for most locations adjacent to the
bay and rivers. Depending on the water level evolutions over the
next few hours, a few locations (particularly Lewisetta and
Tappahannock) may need to be upgraded to an Coastal Flood
Advisory. Anomalies should fall later tonight, but may still
remain elevated enough to cause continued nuisance flooding in
vulnerable locations.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ632-
     634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Friday for ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JKP
NEAR TERM...AJZ/JKP
SHORT TERM...JKP
LONG TERM...AJB/JKP
AVIATION...AJZ/JKP
MARINE...SW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...