677
FXUS61 KAKQ 051943
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
343 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure tracks northeast along the Carolina coastal plain
tonight, then pushes offshore Friday morning. A cold front approaches
Friday night and moves into the region Saturday, before lingering
over the area Sunday. This will bring a return to chances of
primarily afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.
Mainly dry conditions prevail Monday, with unsettled weather
expected Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 315 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Showers with a few tstms are expected across far southern VA
  and NE NC through Friday morning, with lower chances
  elsewhere.

The latest WX analysis indicates ~1015mb sfc low pressure
centered across south-central portions of NC this aftn, with a
sfc warm front extending east to near Cape Hatteras. A broad
upper level trough is in place across the SE CONUS, and this has
allowed widespread showers with a few embedded tstms to develop
over the Carolinas. Farther north, enough low level dry air has
kept conditions mainly dry thus far in VA, which lines up well
with PWAT data per the latest SPC mesoanalysis, which depicts
values approaching nearly 2.00" up to the Albemarle Sound,
dropping off sharply down to ~1.50" at the VA-NC border, and
then to ~1.25" or less along and N of the US 460 corridor.
Modest instability is present across NC, with some lightning now
being observed over central NC. This is forecast to drift
northward into southern VA over the next few hrs, before waning
after sunset. Will maintain a mention for slight chc to chc for
tstms, but given weak lapse rates both in the low and mid levels,
along with minimal shear, strong to severe tstms are not
anticipated.

Showers potentially spread N from the I-95 corridor E due to
support from the lingering upper system, but overall less
organization is expected as the night progresses. Overall, QPF
ranges from 0.25-0.5" for southern VA/NE NC and tapers down to
only a few hundredths of an inch N. Some locally higher amounts
remain possible, but the threat of excessive rainfall is
Marginal only across NC. With clouds/precip, and higher dew
pts, overnight lows will be rather warm, ranging from the low-
mid 60s NW to the upper 60s to around 70F SE.

The upper level flow across the Mid-Atlantic becomes zonal
Friday into Friday night on the northern periphery of a ridge
that extends from TX along the northern Gulf coast. This will
allow the lingering shortwave to dampen and push offshore.
Overall forcing for ascent is limited Friday. Therefore, rain
chances are limited, with a 20-30% chc of showers, along the
coast in the morning, and then a 20-30% chc of showers/tstms
drifting into the Piedmont late in the day. Remaining mostly
cloudy along the coast Friday, which will hold highs in the mid
70s to near 80F, while partial clearing well inland will allow
highs to rise into the mid 80s. A Marginal SVR risk covers the
extreme western edge of the CWA, but the bulk of shower/storm
activity is likely to stay W of the CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered/numerous showers/tstms Sat aftn/evening with a cold
  front.

- Remaining unsettled with showers and storms likely Sunday.

A shortwave trough slides across the region late Friday night
into early Saturday given the progressive nature of the mid-
level flow, and this could produce some showers earlier in the
day. However, the primary shortwave and more significant height
falls arrive later in the day with the actual cold front. The
mid level flow increases (500-700mb winds avg 30-40kt). The cold
front is expected to move into the area by aftn, then slowly
sagging south Saturday night. The attendant shortwave aloft
should also support a higher coverage of showers/tstms and PoPs
remain the 50-60% range for most of the local area Saturday
afternoon, sliding to the SE in the evening. With dew points in
the upper 60s to around 70F, instability does look favorable
(especially when combined with decent mid-level flow) for some
strong to severe tstms. The latest Day 3 Outlook places a Slight
Risk across NE NC, with a Marginal for the remainder of the FA
(minus the eastern shore where the risk is less). At this time,
it looks like primarily a wind threat, though mid level lapse
rates may be steep enough for at least a marginal hail threat
as well. The coverage of precip should drop off overnight
Saturday as the cold front sags S. Highs Saturday range from the
lower/mid 80s N to the upper 80s S. Lows Saturday night will
mainly be in the mid 60s to around 70F. For Sunday, the models
remain in good agreement that the front will be stalled across
southern sections of the CWA, with a robust shortwave aloft
passing through the region through the aftn/early evening. SPC`s
Day 4 has a 15% SVR risk for NC, where instability will tend to
be the highest. Either way, there looks to be sufficient forcing
amd lingering moisture to maintain likely PoPs across the entire
area. There will also be the potential for locally heavy
rainfall/localized flooding given PWATs remaining elevated and
with the front nearly parallel to the mid level flow. Highs
Sunday in the upper 70s to lower 80s N to the mid 80s S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 340 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Mainly dry Monday.

- Unsettled conditions return Tuesday.

By Monday, PW anomalies return to near normal with the front
washing out across NC, so PoPs are mainly 20% or less, with the
exception of 20-30% near the Albemarle Sound. Unsettled weather
with showers/tstms are expected to return Tuesday as moisture
increases ahead of another shortwave trough. By the middle of
the week, high pressure and drier conditions potentially return
to the region. Temperatures will be near to slightly above
normal through the medium range period. Highs Monday are
expected in the upper 80s, and then lower/mid 80s Tuesday and
Wednesday, and mid to upper 80s Thursday. Lows will mainly be
in the 60s to around 70F.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...

Low level dry air to the N will limit the northward extent
lower cigs and showers into this evening, with MVFR CIGs likely
confined to ECG/ORF/PHF (ECG has a chc for brief VBSY
restrictions to IFR in heavier showers). Still only a 20-30%
chc of showers at RIC and at SBY. MVFR cigs are forecast to
expand northward tonight, with some IFR possible. However, SBY
will likely remain VFR most of the night. The wind will
generally be S/SE 5-10kt tonight., then ENE Fri morning, with a
higher probability for IFR CIGs along the coast. Conditions
slowly improve later Fri morning, with mainly VFR by aftn.

A cold front will approach from the NW Saturday bringing a
50-60% chc of showers/tstms. This front is expected to linger
in vicinity of the region Sunday with a high chc of showers/tstms
continuing. The latest guidance shows the front pushing S of
the region Monday. Showers/storms return Tuesday aftn/evening.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- A weak low pressure system develops along the NC coast tonight and
moves offshore.

- Sub-SCA conditions are expected through the period though winds
may gusts to 15 to 20 kt at times.

With high pressure just offshore south winds have remained
relatively light this afternoon around 5 to 10 kt with a few gusts
near 15 kt. Winds will become more SE tonight and then E and NE
by Friday. A weak area of low pressure will develop along the
NC coast this evening and move offshore Friday. This will
tighten the pressure gradient just enough to cause winds to
become NE for Friday at 10 to 15 kt. Expect a few gusts to near
20 kt over the Bay and coastal waters. In general guidance has
lowered the wind a couple kts for Friday, so it appears
conditions will remain below SCA criteria. Seas will be
generally 2-3 ft in the coastal waters and waves will be 1-2 ft
in the Chesapeake Bay through tonight.

The low tracking off the NC coast is expected to remain weak and
move away quickly by late Fri. Regardless of the weaker storm
system, there should be ab increasing SE/E swell produced by the low
with seas forecast to increase to 3-4 ft by Fri aftn. The forecast
for seas has trended down a bit from yesterday. While winds diminish
to below 10 kt by late Friday evening, 2-4 ft seas may linger
through Fri night (especially N). Prevailing sub-SCA conditions are
expected over the weekend (although aftn/evening tstms are expected
each day which could necessitate SMWs). Winds become S/SW Saturday
ahead of a weak front. The front will push its way south stalling
over southeast VA for Sunday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ/LKB
AVIATION...AJZ/LKB
MARINE...ERI/JAO