522
FXUS61 KAKQ 050912
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
412 AM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure build north of the area today. Meanwhile, an area
of low pressure approaches tonight into Thursday, bringing the
potential for wintry precipitation to northern portions of the
area. High pressure briefly returns on Friday before another
area of low pressure approaches the region this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 355 AM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- A wintry mix develops this afternoon across far northern portions
of the area, transitioning over to freezing rain tonight.

- Ice accumulations of up to 0.10" to 0.20" are possible tonight
from Fluvanna and Louisa Counties over to Dorchester County, MD.

High pressure builds north of the area today, leading to a CAD set
up across the region. Temperatures will be drastically different
from yesterday, only staying in the mid to upper 30s for much of the
northern half of the area to the lower 40s across southern VA into
northeast North Carolina. We will also remain locked in cloud cover
today with mostly cloudy to overcast skies.

Weak low pressure approaches from the SW today, with spreading light
precipitation into the area by this afternoon. While we are mainly
anticipating either light rain or drizzle, this precipitation may
mix with sleet (or even a few snowflakes) initially across the
northern half of the area with 925mb temps hovering around -4 to -
5C. Little to no accumulation is expected with the precipitation
this afternoon due to the very light nature of it and marginal
temperatures at the surface. Tonight, a steadier batch of
precipitation moves across the northern half of the area, especially
after ~11 PM EST. With the CAD wedge remaining in place, forecast
soundings continue to show a strong warm nose around 850mb with
temperatures well above the freezing. Near the surface however,
temps will be at or below freezing, leading to a freezing rain
potential for our northern areas. Freezing rain changes over to
plain rain from SE to NW as slight WAA pushes inland from the E/SE.

Expecting anywhere from a glaze of ice accumulations up to 0.10"
across Dorchester County MD over to far northern portions of our
area east of Interstate 95 in VA. West of I-95 across northern
portions of Caroline, Hanover, Goochland, Louisa, and Fluvanna
counties, we may see ice accumulations approach 0.20" due to the
freezing rain threat hanging on into Thursday AM. It should be noted
that this is a very sensitive forecast, with surface temps right at
31-32F during the duration of the event. If temps trend even 1
degree cooler, we may see freezing rain threat spread slightly
further south, potentially into the northern RIC metro. Based on our
current forecast and on HREF ice accumulation probs of >0.01", went
ahead and issued a Winter Weather Advisory for our northern tier of
counties tonight due to the freezing rain potential. Did mention
slightly stronger wording (accumulations up to 0.20") for
western Louisa where any freezing rain threat hangs on the
longest. Would expect the majority of ice accumulations to take
place on tree branches or elevated surfaces, with road
temperatures well above freezing due to the recent mild weather.
Regardless, everyone within the advisory area should take extra
caution if traveling later tonight or Thursday AM.

Plain rain is expected tonight for the remaining southern 2/3rds of
the area, with temps generally hovering from just slightly above
freezing into the mid 30s. Total QPF through tonight will range from
0.10" to 0.40" with the highest amounts north.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 415 AM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Cold air damming gradually erodes Thursday afternoon/evening.

- Mild and dry on Friday.

Temperatures on Thursday will likely be slow to rise with a CAD
airmass remaining in place over the area. These wedges are
typically slow to erode this time of year, so would not be
surprised to see high temperatures reached very late in the day
or even after dark. Highs Thursday will range from the low to
mid 60s south, to the mid 50s north (upper 40s to lower 50s
Eastern Shore). Much of the first half of the day will see
continued cloud cover and rain chances, before a gradual
clearing late. A cold front approaches and crosses the area
Thursday night, bringing a low-end chance for light rain
showers. Mild/dry conditions are expected on Friday with high
pressure in control. High temperatures Friday climb into the 60s
for much of the area (50s Eastern Shore).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 415 AM EST Wednesday...

Key Message:

- Another CAD setup likely develops, bringing cooler weather on
  Saturday.

- Some additional light mixed wintry precipitation is possible
  across far northern portions of the area late Friday into
  midday on Saturday.

- Warmer weather returns Sunday, with another abrupt cool down
  following for early next week.

The progressive pattern continues through the forecast period
with zonal flow aloft over much of the CONUS, and a series of
cold fronts dropping into the area, then lifting north in the
subsequent WAA. Saturday looks cooler, with another NE-Flow,
in-situ CAD scenario likely re-developing across the region, as
a ~1030mb high sets up north of the area, as another low
pressure system tracking from the south. Saturday does look
similar to the sensible wx of the next 24 hours, with highs
only in the upper 30s or 40s for much of the area (potentially
lower) and light precipitation, complete with another round of
light mixed precipitation possible across our far northern areas
Saturday. Trending back warmer on Sunday with scattered showers
expected area- wide ahead of another cold front. Highs will
mainly be in the upper 50s to 60s, with lower 70s possible
south.

Sunday night`s cold front still looks to be a bit stronger, and
expect that highs will drop back down near or slightly below
seasonal average on Monday and Tuesday. Models are still showing
additional shortwave energy riding over the lingering baroclinic
zone, likely producing multiple rounds of additional
precipitation. Given that we are on the cold side of the
boundary, this could well include some widespread wintry weather
returning to portions of the area early next week, but it is
still too early for much in the way of specifics at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1245 AM EST Wednesday...

Early this morning, high pressure is building north of the
region with the front from earlier now located well south of the
TAF sites. High clouds will thicken and gradually lower early
this morning with a light NW wind. CIGs lower further to around
5000 feet by ~11z with skies becoming BKN to OVC. CIGs continue
to lower throughout the day as weak low pressure approaches from
the WSW. MVFR CIGs begin to over overspread western and far
southern portions of the area (including ECG) between ~16 to
18z, with widespread MVFR developing at all sites between 18 and
21z. Widespread IFR CIGs are then expected late this evening
and throughout tonight. In addition to the lowering CIGs, light
mixed precipitation will be possible at RIC and SBY later this
afternoon, with plain rain expected elsewhere. Steadier
precipitation is expected tonight, bringing VSBY restrictions.

Outlook: Conditions very slowly improve Thursday, with IFR cigs
potentially lingering in the morning. By Friday, mainly VFR
conditions are expected as a dry cold front moves through the
region. High pressure briefly returns Friday night, before a
warm front brings a chc of rain Saturday. A cold front then
crosses the region Sunday as low pressure tracks N of the area
with an additional chc of rain.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 235 AM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- SCA in effect for seas of 5ft in NC coastal waters until later
  this morning. Onshore flow continues into tonight.

- Elevated SW winds expected Thursday - SCAs possible.

Onshore flow continues today as high pressure builds in from the NW,
then slides E to the north of the local area. Latest obs indicate NE
winds generally around 10kt. Buoy obs show 2-4ft seas N of the NC/VA
border, but 5-6ft in the NC waters. A SCA is in effect until later
this morning for the NC coastal waters. Expect NE winds to continue
through this afternoon at ~10kt in the bay/rivers and 10-15kt over
coastal waters. Will need to monitor for a potential extension of
the SCA for 5ft seas given continuation of onshore flow into the
evening. Going into tonight, low pressure starts to develop along
the coast just to the S. Winds become more easterly. Will likely see
a slight increase in wind speeds overnight as the low deepens and
the pressure gradient tightens. Expecting 10-15kt in the bay/rivers
and ~15kt over coastal waters through tomorrow morning.

In wake of this low winds will be out of the SW Thursday possibly
bringing SCA conditions across the waters. There is a little higher
confidence in the potential of SCA as there is better synoptics with
this system. However, winds will remain suppressed due to limited
mixing as the water temperatures are much cooler than the warm air
moving across the area. Winds are expected to be 10 to 15 kt
sustained with isolated areas possibly above 15 kt sustained and
gusts nearing 20 kt or slightly above. Seas are expected to build
throughout Thursday with 2 to 3 ft waves in the bay and 4 to 5 ft
waves across the seas. By early Friday another cold front moves
through the area and winds will diminish and benign marine
conditions are expected by this weekend.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
     Thursday for MDZ021.
NC...None.
VA...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
     Thursday for VAZ048-062-064-075-510-511-517-519-521.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Thursday for VAZ509.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB
NEAR TERM...AJB
SHORT TERM...AJB
LONG TERM...AJB/MAM
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...AC/HET