230
FXUS61 KAKQ 111940
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
240 PM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds south of the area later this evening into
Wednesday, before a dry cold front crosses the area Wednesday
night into Thursday. High pressure builds back into the area
Friday into the weekend. Another frontal system potentially
crosses the area later Sunday into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 240 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Dry, chilly, and breezy conditions this afternoon and
  overnight.

High pressure at the sfc has slid down toward the Gulf coast while
the trough axis aloft has slid offshore. It`s chilly and windy out
there today under clear to mostly clear skies. Latest obs show temps
in the mid 40s but with winds of 20-30mph, apparent temperatures are
in the upper 30s. Not quite as cold tonight as last night, with lows
in the mid 30s. Will see a brief increase in cloud cover overnight
as a weaker shortwave passes through aloft, then clearing out early
tomorrow morning. Still a little breezy overnight, but only ~10-
15mph. This will be enough, though, to knock wind chills down to the
mid to upper 20s for most locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Temperatures moderate back closer to average on Wednesday.

- A dry cold front crosses the area Wednesday night into early Thursday.


High pressure, currently near the Gulf coast, will slide east and
then build N Wed into Thurs. NW flow aloft will continue aloft as a
trough sits offshore. Remaining dry and mostly sunny through this
period. Temps will be closer to seasonal norms with highs in the
upper 50s and low 60s on both Wed and Thurs. A brief period of cloud
cover Wed night (dry frontal passage) will keep lows around 40
S of I-64 while little to no clouds and lighter winds will let
temps drop to the mid 30s across the N. Winds finally diminish
to light to calm Thurs night as the high slides overhead,
allowing for good radiational cooling and lows in the low 30s
inland, mid-upper 30s close to the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 240 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Dry weather and seasonable temperatures through Saturday

- Another system may approach the area Sunday into early next
  week, bringing a low-end chance for rain.

High confidence remains in northwesterly flow aloft through the end
of the week into the weekend. At the surface, high pressure will
remain parked over the SE CONUS. This will continue to support
seasonable temperatures in the upper 50s and low 60s and dry weather
Fri and Sun. Another frontal system approaches later Sunday into
Monday, bringing our next chance for some light rain. Moisture
appears fairly limited at this time with this system (00z EPS and
GEFS each show less than 0.10") with not even enough confidence for
mentionable PoPs. There will also be a decent warm up out ahead of
this front on Sunday as southerly flow increases. Highs on Sunday
will top out in the low 70s inland and upper 60s at the coast.
Monday will have highs in the upper 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1230 PM EST Tuesday...

VFR conditions continue through the 18z/11 TAF period. Mostly
clear skies this afternoon, then increasing mid-level cloud
cover (esp at RIC and SBY) overnight as a disturbance aloft
passes over the area. Mostly clear skies expected again
tomorrow. West winds will be gusty (20-30kt) through late
afternoon, then turning to the SW and diminishing to 10-15kt
overnight. SW winds become gusty again during the day tomorrow
with gusts 20-25kt. There is also the potential for a brief
period of LLWS at ECG early tomorrow morning.

Outlook: VFR/dry tonight through Saturday with breezy
conditions during the afternoon hours.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 240 PM EST Tuesday..

Key Messages:

- Gale Warnings remain in effect through early this evening for
  the Atlantic waters N of Cape Charles Light with Small Craft
  Advisories in effect for all remaining waters.

- Strong W/SW winds continue Wednesday into Thursday.

Afternoon analysis shows strong low pressure over eastern Canada and
1030mb high pressure over the northern Gulf Coast. Winds locally are
W 20-25 kt with gusts 30-35 kt in the Ches Bay and coastal waters.
In the rivers and Currituck Sound winds are W 15-25 with gusts to 30
kt. Waves in the bay are 2-4 ft with seas 4-6 ft (highest well
offshore).

Gale Warnings in the bay and southern coastal waters will be
replaced with SCAs at 4PM. The northern coastal waters have Gale
Warnings through 7PM with SCAs certain thereafter as the pressure
gradient remains very steep between the low in Canada and high
pressure building in from the SW. Winds become SW tonight, remaining
in the 20-25 kt range with gusts up to 30 kt. A passing disturbance
well to the north will compress the gradient again on Wednesday with
SW winds potentially gusting for a period 30-35 kt offshore. Local
wind probs only show around a 30% chance for gales so no additional
headlines expected. Waves in the bay will maintain 2-4 ft through
early Thursday, diminishing to 1-3 ft thereafter. Offshore wind
direction should keep near-shore seas quite a bit lower than
conditions farther offshore, generally maintaining 4-6 ft through
early Thursday. Benign marine conditions are expected Thursday into
the first half of the weekend. SW flow strengthens ahead of the next
system early Sunday with a front crossing the region early next
week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 230 AM EST Tuesday...

It will be dry and windy today, with min RH values of 25-35%.
However, the cold temperatures (most areas at or below freezing
to start the day), and rainfall amounts as high as 1-2" over the
past 36 hrs in some areas, will mitigate the threat. Therefore,
did not issue any SPS/Fire Danger Statements.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630>632-634-
     656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ630>632-
     634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ633-
     635>638.
     Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ650-652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB
NEAR TERM...AC
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...AJB/AC
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...RHR
FIRE WEATHER...