966
FXUS61 KAKQ 200204
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1004 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm weather continues through the next week. A backdoor cold front
drops south into the region on Sunday before lifting back northward
on Monday. An unsettled pattern develops next week with daily low
shower chances. However, rainfall totals appear unimpressive at this
time.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 1000 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Mild overnight with lows in the mid to upper 60s.

The forecast remains on track with only minor changes needed
with the evening update.

Previous Discussion:

Afternoon surface analysis depicted Bermuda high pressure offshore
with surface low pressure over SE Canada. A cold front extended S
and W from the low all the way into SW TX. Aloft, a ridge
expands NE from the central Gulf into the Mid Atlantic today.
Temps as of 230 PM ranged from the upper 70s to lower 80s under
partly cloudy skies. Very warm and remaining dry today with
continued breezy SW winds resulting from low pressure to the NW
and high pressure offshore. Wind gusts up to 25-30 mph are
possible through this afternoon with the strongest winds along
the coast and across the Eastern Shore. Afternoon temps rise
well into the 80s inland with even some upper 80s to around 90
degree readings possible as heights aloft continue to build.
Clouds increase tonight with lows in the 60s (mid 60s for most).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- A backdoor cold front drops south and west Sunday, leading to
  a range of temperatures across the area.

- The front lifts back to the north on Monday with low level moisture
  increasing ahead of an approaching cold front.

The challenging aspect of the near term forecast is the temps Sun. A
backdoor cold front pushes S/SW Sunday, however, colder air/onshore
flow will lag behind the surface boundary by a few hours.
Additionally, winds likely remain light behind the front which
likely delays CAA. As such, highest confidence in temps is across S
VA/NE NC where highs in the mid 80s are expected. The lowest
confidence in temps is across central VA where highs may end up on
either side of 80F by a few degrees depending on the timing of the
CAA and any potential clearing. Farther NE, highs remain in the 70s
are expected with upper 60s possible at Ocean City, MD. Temps fall
late Sun afternoon into Sun night from NE to SW as CAA reaches the
local area. As such, expect lows Sun night to range from the upper
40s to mid 50s across the Eastern Shore to the mid 50s to around 60F
across mainland VA (highest temps across SW portions of the FA).
Otherwise, partly to mostly cloudy skies Sun become mostly cloudy
Sun night with a few isolated, light showers possible across the far
NW Sun night.

The front will lift north as a warm front on Monday with southerly
flow and thinning clouds by the afternoon (partly cloudy skies). Mon
remains dry with highs in the low-mid 80s inland and 60s to lower
70s for the Eastern Shore. There is a low chance for a few showers
across the N half of the FA Monday night as a cold front pushes S
towards the area, but not expecting more than a trace of precip for
most (15-30% PoPs). Mon night remains mild with lows in the low-
mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 305 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- A weakening frontal boundary will meander over the region
  through the week with daily diurnal chances for showers and a
  few storms.

- Above normal temperatures continue with highs in the mid 70s
  to mid 80s through the week.

Aloft, an upper level ridge remains across the area through the
week. At the surface, high pressure remains centered offshore
through most of the week with a weak frontal boundary lingering
near or over the S portion of the FA. As such, above normal
temps are expected through the week with highs in the mid 70s to
mid 80s each day (upper 70s to mid 80s for most). Additionally,
an unsettled pattern develops given the lingering frontal
boundary with daily diurnal chances for isolated to scattered
showers and storms. Predictability (and therefore confidence)
is low this far out with respect to PoPs. As we get closer and
the location of the frontal boundary becomes more clear,
confidence will increase. For now, have generally a 30-40% PoP
each day for at least a portion of the FA (generally the S half
of the FA).

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 730 PM EDT Saturday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 00z TAF period. A backdoor
cold front approaches the area tonight, and crosses the
terminals on Sunday. This will allow SW winds of 10-15 kt to
become NE at ~10 kt on Sun. Guidance suggests there will be a
brief period of LLWS just ahead of the front at SBY overnight.
This may also impact RIC, however confidence is still too low
to include in the forecast at this time. Clear outside of high
clouds through Sunday morning, with SCT cumulus possible during
the afternoon (especially at RIC).

Outlook: Mainly VFR/dry conditions continue through Monday
night. The only potential exception to this would be a period of
sub-VFR CIGs Sun night/Mon AM. The next chance of precipitation
(scattered showers/tstms) is Tuesday afternoon/evening.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 305 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Elevated SSW winds gradually diminish late this afternoon and evening
  as a weak cold front approaches from the north.

- Winds shift to north then northeast behind the cold front
  Sunday but are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory
  criteria.

1030mb high pressure is centered well off the Southeast coast this
aftn. Meanwhile, low pressure is centered over SE QB, with a cold
front trailing back through the eastern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.
The pressure gradient is resulting in a SW wind across the Mid-
Atlantic coast, with wind speeds ranging from 15-20kt with gusts up
to 25kt S and 10-15kt with gusts to around 20kt N. Seas range from 2-
3ft S, to 4-5ft offshore N of Parramore Is. Waves in the Ches. Bay
are approximately 2-3ft. SCAs remain in effect for most of the
marine area with the exception of the Atlantic coastal waters S of
Parramore Is. SCAs are scheduled to end at 4 PM for the middle Ches.
Bay and upper rivers, and this is still on track based on current
observations. SCAs for the lower Ches. Bay and lower James River
continue through 7 PM, and through 1 AM for the coastal waters N of
Parramore Is. where elevated seas will linger.

The aforementioned cold front slowly approaches from the NW tonight.
The pressure gradient relaxes, and the cold front eventually does
finally drop south through the area Sunday. A bit of a surge is
possible behind the frontal passage, but the surge still looks to be
sub-SCA as the front gradually weakens as it drops across the area.
Nonetheless, expect the wind to quickly veer from SSW to NE ~10-15
kt Sunday into Sunday aftn, then ESE Sunday night, and gradually
shifting back to the SSE Monday with another warm front lifting
through the region. A trailing cold front then approaches from the
west and slowly crosses into the region late Tuesday. SCA headlines
may potentially be needed over the Ches. Bay Monday night ahead of
this boundary, before the pressure gradient relaxes Tuesday
immediately ahead of the front. High pressure builds into the area
Tuesday night into Wednesday, with a generally light (10-15kt or
less) N to NE wind. Seas will mainly be 2-3ft later this weekend
through the middle of next week. Waves in the Ches. Bay will
primarily be 1-2ft Sunday through the middle of next week, with the
exception of 2-3ft with increased southerly flow Monday night.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ650-652.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...ERI/RMM
SHORT TERM...RHR/RMM
LONG TERM...RHR/RMM
AVIATION...ERI/RMM
MARINE...AJZ/LKB