660
FXUS61 KAKQ 011412
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1012 AM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler temperatures arrive today behind a seasonally strong
cold front. Dry weather with lower humidity and cooler than
normal temperatures are expected for the upcoming weekend and
into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1012 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Chance of showers and storms continue, mostly for the SE VA/NE NC.

- Cooler, drier air filters in today with below average
  temperatures.

GOES Visible imagery is highlighting a thick stratus deck across a
majority of our area this morning. These low clouds developed in the
wake of a cold front, currently draped across SE VA/NE NC this
morning. Temperatures to the north of the boundary are in the upper
60s to lower/mid 70s, while temperatures south of the boundary are
in the upper 70s to near 80F. Light showers have developed across SE
VA, which are being triggered by the aforementioned front. The
entire area is still in a very moist airmass, with PW values of
between 1.75-2.20" sampled by regional soundings this morning. The
drier is is lagging slightly behind the front, though it is slowly
filtering in. High pressure currently centered over the western
Great Lakes region is building in behind the front. The gradient
between the broad low centered off the Mid-Atlantic coast and this
high has already tightened considerably, with land-based
observation sites measuring wind gusts of around 15-25 mph.

Showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two will continue to develop
in SE VA/NE NC over the next few hours as the front gradually slides
southward. The lack of daytime heating due to the large cloud shield
in place across the region will act to limit the strength of
thunderstorms, so we are not anticipating any severe weather at this
time. There is still a Marginal ERO in place across SE VA/NE NC for
the remaining showers expected but we are not expected high QPF
amounts at this time.  Temperatures may raise a few degrees today,
but the overall trend will be stagnant or actually decreasing as the
cooler airmass settles across our area. Highs will generally be in
the upper 70s N to lower to even mid 80s S. Winds will continue to
trend upwards today as the high continues to build in, but will
remain highest offshore where the cooler air is moving over the
warmer waters.

Overnight, cloud cover will start to scatter out from N to S.
Temperatures will drop into the upper 60s to lower 70s, making for
quite a comfortable start to August. A few showers remain possible
in SE VA/NE NC, but will likely be lighter in nature.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 310 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Cooler, below average temperatures continue through the weekend.

- Decreasing rain chances this weekend as high pressure builds into
  the area.

By Saturday, the aforementioned cold front will be well south of the
area and high pressure will begin to build in from the Great Lakes
region. This high pressure will help allow temperatures to remain
below average and limit rainfall chances. High temps will be in the
lower 80s for the entire area, which will be almost 10 degrees below
average for this time of year. Not only will the temperature be
cooler, but the dewpoints will be lower in the lower to mid 60s,
which will allow for significantly less humid conditions. The high
pressure will move further east and tap into the cool Canadian air
mass, keeping temperatures cooler on Sunday as well. Sunday`s high
temps will be similar to Saturday`s. Lows both days will be in the
upper 50s to lower 60s (except SE VA/NE NC in the mid 60s). Along
the coast, breezy conditions with onshore gusts to 25-30 mph at
times from the cooler air over the warmer waters.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 310 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Cooler below average to seasonable temperatures outlooked through
  late week.

- Mostly dry conditions with returning moisture and increasing
  rain chances by mid week.

Cooler temperatures will likely continue through most of the
extended period. Model guidance continues to show upper air
troughing over the Ohio Valley region and ridging offshore the
Atlantic, which will help provide the cooler temps. High temps will
be in the mid 80s with lows in the mid 60s. Dewpoints will remain in
the upper 60s to lower 70s, providing a better feels-like
temperature. At the surface, high pressure will remain dominate,
preventing widespread convection. Moisture will likely return by mid
week as upper level ridging becomes more amplified. Isolated
to scattered showers and storms return by mid to late week.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 700 AM EDT Friday...

Showers and tstms have ended, but MVFR to local IFR flight
restrictions are in place across much of the area. MVFR to IFR
CIGS are likely at all sites later this morning, (best chc for IFR
at RIC/SBY). MVFR CIGs then prevail through the rest of the
day, with shower chances in SE VA/NE NC. Little to no thunder is
expected this aftn. Winds have shifted to the N (or will do so
shortly). Gusts of 15-20 kts are likely by later morning,
becoming NE with gusts to 20kt+ along the coast in SE VA/NE NC
this afternoon. Remaining MVFR into this evening, with slowly
lifting CIGs overnight/early Sat.

Outlook: Predominantly VFR prevails for the weekend into early
next week as drier air filters in behind the front, but NE winds
remain elevated along the coast into Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 400 AM EDT Friday...

- Small Craft Advisories will go into effect later today all
  areas as a strong cold front crosses the region.

Winds are currently fairly light with the cold front just now
entering northern portions of the local waters, but as cooler
 and drier air eventually filters in from the N, expect winds to
increase through the morning and early aftn. Have moved up the
timing for the start time for the SCAs, generally by 1 PM this
afternoon (and will monitor the need for some areas starting
this morning). With a noticeably cooler airmass spreading over
very warm waters later today, expect enhanced NNE winds with
gusts up to 30 kts by late afternoon through Saturday. A few
gusts to 35 kts are possible, but will likely not be widespread
or long in duration. Winds and seas will likely remain elevated
through Sunday evening, so an extension of the Small Craft
Advisories will likely be needed for some areas.

Waves increase to 3-5 ft (highest overnight and early Saturday
across the lower Bay and near the mouth of the Bay) with seas
building to 5-8 ft during this period. SCA conditions likely
persist for the lower Bay, lower James, Currituck sound, and
coastal waters well into Sunday with NE winds 15-20kt lingering,
and seas only slowly subsiding (forecast to remain above 5 ft
into Monday).

A Moderate Rip Current risk is in effect for all but the NC
beaches today, and may need to be raised for NC this aftn
depending on timing of the increasing seas. Will be upgrading to
a high risk for the weekend, with nearshore seas of 4-5 ft N
and 6-7 S with strong NE winds. It may technically be somewhat
marginal for northern beaches given the wind/wave direction not
as close to shore normal as the southern areas, so will word
accordingly in the SRF.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ630-631-
     635>637.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ632-634-638.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT
     Sunday for ANZ633-658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ650-652.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ654-656.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HET/KMC
NEAR TERM...NB
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...ERI/LKB
MARINE...LKB/NB