722
FXUS61 KAKQ 171410
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1010 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm temperatures are again expected today with clearing skies.
High pressure briefly returns for Sunday and Monday.
Temperatures cool down and conditions become unsettled into the
middle of next week as an upper level low pressure system
develops west of the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1005 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- There is a slight chance for late afternoon/evening
  thunderstorms across SE VA and NE NC.

- Lows fall into the 60s tonight with lower humidity.

Late morning wx analysis shows strong low pressure at the
surface and aloft over the northern Great Lakes, with a cold
front over the Ohio Valley. Tstms that crossed the area early
this morning have dissipated, leaving behind some clouds
(although it has cleared out across our far NW counties). Expect
clearing to occur from W-E during the next few hours. While
forecast highs have been lowered with the morning update, still
think it will get into the mid-upper 80s this aftn.

The cold front will approach later today and cross the area this
evening-tonight as the parent trough/shortwave slides well to
the N. There is little support for convection redeveloping
along the front this afternoon and SPC has dropped both the
Marginal and general thunder risks for our entire CWA. Still,
can`t completely rule out isolated shower/tstm development
across SE VA and NE NC (mainly between 4-10 PM). So will keep
the 20% PoPs here. Dew points will be dropping off through the
afternoon as drier air filters in, so it will not feel as humid
as it did yesterday. WSW winds also become gusty (up to 25-30
mph) this afternoon. Partly cloudy overnight with lows in the
60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 235 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

- Dry Sunday and Monday while still remaining warm.

Upper low and troughing over the NE CONUS will favor dry conditions
to start the new week. Still quite warm for Sunday/Monday as only
modest cold advection occurs behind the front. Highs in the lower to
mid 80s both days, warmest across the S and SE and coolest on the
Eastern Shore. Overnight lows Sun and Mon night drop into the 50s
inland and lower 60s closer to the coast. A few of the typically
cooler spots could dip into the upper 40s Mon night as high pressure
briefly settles overhead.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 235 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Unsettled weather returns later Tuesday through Thursday.

- Below average temperatures expected by late next week and likely
last into next weekend.

Unsettled wx returns for the mid to late week period as an upper
level low is progged to track from the Midwest to the east coast
from Tuesday through Thursday, before slowly exiting to the NE
by Friday/Friday night. Tuesday night-Wednesday looks like the
wettest period, with a drying trend expected by Thu as cooler air
filters in from the NW and the associated sfc low tracks to NE of
the area. While this doesn`t look like a very wet system, decent
rainfall totals are possible given the longer duration. GEFS/EPS
probs are quite similar for greater than 0.5" and 1" of QPF during
this period, with around 70-90% and 30-60% (highest N),
respectively.

With the increased precipitation chances, temperatures trend
cooler...and likely below seasonal norms...by Wednesday and
Thursday. Below normal temperatures remain favored through the end
of the week and looking ahead to Memorial Day weekend, though some
moderating in temps is possible by Sat-Sun, as suggested by the
NBM and ensemble guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 720 AM EDT Saturday...

VFR conditions expected at all terminals through the 12z/17 TAF
period. Scattered showers (and isolated thunderstorms) are
possible at all terminals over the next few hours before chances
greatly diminish later this morning. Showers are not expected
to cause any flight restrictions. Becoming breezy later this
morning and into this afternoon with W-WSW winds of 15 kt and
20-30 kt gusts. Mainly high clouds are expected tonight into
Sunday morning, with W winds dropping off to around 5 to 10 kts.

Outlook: Prevailing VFR conditions are expected over the
weekend into early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 310 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages...

- SW winds increase this afternoon/evening, gusting to 20 to 25 kt
in the lower Chesapeake Bay/York/James River and Currituck Sound. A
Small Craft Advisory remains in effect.

- NW winds increase Sunday evening into early Monday, potentially
approaching SCA thresholds, especially across the Chesapeake Bay.

- Generally Sub-SCA conditions return Monday afternoon into Tuesday,
before potentially becoming breezier by mid-week.

Early this morning, SW winds over the waters are running around 5 to
10 knots. Showers and thunderstorms approach the waters from the
west as we approach sunrise, with a few of these showers/storms
potentially producing localized gusty winds (low confidence). Any
lingering showers/storms move well offshore by ~10 AM. Otherwise,
the pressure gradient picks up over the waters somewhat this
afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. SW winds will become
rather gusty over land, however some of these 20kt gusts will likely
impact the southern Chesapeake Bay, James/York Rivers and Currituck
Sound. A SCA remains in effect for these areas this afternoon into
this evening. SW winds decrease early this evening as the front
pushes through. Behind the front, winds gradually turn W then NW on
Sunday. Low pressure then deepens over the Canadian Maritimes Sunday
night into Monday which should allow for NW winds to increase to
around 15 kt across the waters. SCAs may be needed for at least
portions of the Chesapeake Bay with this northerly surge but there
is still some uncertainty. Winds gradually turn to the east by
Tuesday as low pressure develops to the west of the area and a
frontal boundary stays south of the region. Becoming more unsettled
by mid-week, with multiple chances for SCAs Wednesday and
beyond.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ632-
     634-636>638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ633.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERI/LKB/SW
NEAR TERM...ERI/SW
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...ERI/SW
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...AJB/MRD