102
FXUS61 KAKQ 240522
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
122 AM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A large ridge remains across the Eastern CONUS, bringing very
hot conditions to the region through the week. Low- end chances
for afternoon showers and thunderstorms make a return from mid
to late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 805 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect for much of the
  forecast area, with a Heat Advisory in effect for far western
  portions of the area as well as some of the area beaches
  overnight.

The latest WX analysis indicates an anomalous ~598 dm upper
level ridge centered across the local area. At the surface, a
~1023 mb surface high remains centered over the southern
Appalachians. Most of the CU from the aftn have dissipated,
leaving just some high clouds in place this evening.
Temperatures have dropped into the mid 80s to around 90F with
dew pts rising to 75-80 (highest in areas where mixing has
dropped off with calm wind). Heat indices as of 8 PM are still
100-105F across most of the region, and will be slow to drop off
through the evening. Extreme Heat Warnings remaining in effect
across most of the area (apart from a Heat Advisory across far W
portions of the area and the NC and MD beaches. Little heat
relief is expected tonight with temps remaining at or above 80F
through midnight (with heat indices in the 90s) for most
places. Lows by early Tuesday morning are expected to drop into
the mid- upper 70s for most, with urban areas (Richmond and
Norfolk especially) probably not getting below 80F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 355 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Extreme Heat Warnings are in effect across all of the area excluding
  the Maryland Beaches and Currituck Beaches Tuesday and
  Wednesday.

- A few isolated storms are possible late Tuesday with isolated
  to scattered storms possible late Wednesday. A few storms may
  be strong to severe.

Aloft, a very impressive 597 dm ridge remains in place across the
area Tue, gradually decreasing in amplitude by Wed (594 dm). High
pressure remains centered to the west of the local area Tue and Wed,
gradually weakening with time. The result is the continuation of
dangerously hot conditions across the entire area Tue and Wed. Tue
still looks to be the hottest day with highs in the upper 90s to
around 100F away from the coast. Highs likely remain below 100F on
Wed but still will range from the mid-upper 90s (most in the upper
90s). Dew points remain in the 70s both days with mid 70s dew points
most of the time. The combination of the heat and humidity will
result in heat indices around 110F (locally higher) Tue and 105-110F
Wed. The only locations not expected to feel like 110F Tue are the
Currituck beaches and the MD beaches given a sea breeze developing
with onshore flow during the afternoon. HREF probs for heat indices
of 110F or higher were 40-50% across the Eastern Shore and 50-80%
across the rest of the FA (away from the coast). As such,
confidence is high in dangerous heat tomorrow. As such, have
upgraded the Extreme Heat Watches to Extreme Heat Warnings away
from the coast. Therefore, Extreme Heat Warnings are in effect
for all locations apart from the Currituck beaches and MD
beaches Tue through Wed. Will note that confidence in reaching
110F heat indices is lower on Wed with some locations
potentially needing a downgrade. However, given that Wed is the
third day in a row of dangerously hot conditions, feel that it
is still justified to get the messaging out. Will reevaluate Wed
tomorrow.

While most areas likely remain dry Tue, there is a chance for a few
isolated storms from the Piedmont to roughly the I-95 corridor from
late afternoon into the evening. CAMs show this potential now with
the GFS consistently showing the potential for convection for
several days now. As such, have increased PoPs above NBM to show
a slight chance for an isolated storm before 8 PM (15% PoPs)
with a 15-30% PoP Tue evening. Additionally, the increasing
cloud cover (outside of any actual convection) may keep temps a
bit cooler than expected. Will note that while CAPE will likely
be extreme, the warm 700mb temps of 10-12C may be too warm for
convection (at least widespread convection). Lows Tue night
remain very warm in the mid-upper 70s with urban areas
potentially not dropping below 80F.

The 700mb temps cool to 8-10C Wed as the ridge weakens. Meanwhile,
an upper level low across FL will allow for a 250mb jet streak to
develop across the Carolinas into far S VA. Interestingly, given the
position of the ridge and upper level low, winds aloft will be
easterly instead of the typical westerly winds we normally see at
this latitude. This jet streak combined with another day of
high- extreme instability and cooler 700mb temps may allow for
more scattered (as opposed to isolated) convection Wed afternoon
and evening. For now, have kept NBM PoPs of 25-30%, however,
these may increase as we get closer. Given the very high
instability and DCAPE, strong to damaging winds are possible
with storms that can break the cap. As such, SPC has placed the
entire FA under a Marginal (level 1/5) risk for severe storms
Wed. Any convection quickly tapers off Wed night with lows in
the mid 70s for most (upper 70s along the coast). Will note that
convection and cloud cover could keep heat indices lower than
expected, but this is conditional upon storms/clouds forming.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 355 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- The heat wave continues through the weekend.

- An unsettled pattern develops with daily, diurnal chances for
  isolated to scattered storms.

Aloft, the ridge remains over the area, but too a lesser amplitude
than what we are currently experiencing. At the surface, high
pressure remains centered to the W of the local area. This will
result in a fairly stagnant, summer pattern with daily highs in the
low-mid 90s (most in the mid 90s) and daily heat indices of 100-
105F. In general, most of these days look to be below Heat Advisory
criteria (at least on a widespread level). The one hotter day is
Thu. Highs in the mid-upper 90s with heat indices of 102-107F are
expected on Thu with Heat Advisories likely for at least a portion
of the FA (highest confidence from the I-95 corridor to Hampton
Roads). Otherwise, isolated to scattered storms are possible each
day with PoPs of 30-45% (highest across the Piedmont). A few strong
gusts are possible with any storms.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 120 AM EDT Tuesday...

VFR prevails through the 24/06z TAF period. Mainly clear skies
over the region early this morning with strong high pressure
remaining in control. Light and variable to calm wind is
expected to continue this morning. Very similar wx expected
today compared to the past few days, with local seabreezes
again developing near the coast (E-NE winds at ORF/PHF/ECG). SCT
CU are again likely by midday through the late aftn. An
isolated shower or tstm will be possible, mainly inland and W of
the TAF sites by late aftn/evening but the coverage is too low
to include in any TAF.

Outlook: Mainly and VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the middle of the week as strong high pressure builds
over the region. Somewhat better chances for aftn/evening storms
Wed- Fri as the upper level ridge gradually breaks down. These
could cause very isolated flight restrictions should they impact
a terminal.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions continue through the end of the week.

Benign marine conditions are expected through the entire forecast
period as high pressure dominates the local weather pattern. Light
and variable flow this afternoon becomes southerly late tonight.
Similar winds continue through Thursday. Slightly stronger SW flow
is possible by the end of the week as the high shifts further
offshore. However, prevailing winds are expected to stay below SCA
criteria. Isolated showers or storms are also possible on the waters
by mid-late week. Seas remain around 2 ft for the week, increasing
to 2-3 ft by Friday. Waves in the bay and rivers of 1-2 ft or less
through the period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures Tue 6/24-Wed 6/25:

(no record highs set or tied Mon 6/23)

Date    Richmond     Norfolk    Salisbury   Eliz. City
06-24   102(2010)   101(1880)   100(1914)    99(2010)
06-25   100(1952)   100(1952)    99(1914)   100(1952)


Daily Record High Minimum Temperatures Tue 6/24-Wed 6/25:

*SBY set a new record high min of 76 Mon 6/23 (breaks old
 record of 75 in 1929).


Date    Richmond     Norfolk    Salisbury   Eliz. City
06-24    78(2010)    79(1994)    75(1969)    76(2011)
06-25    76(1921)    79(1880)    75(1909)    76(1949)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for MDZ025.
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NCZ102.
VA...Heat Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for VAZ048-060-061-
     065>067-509.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...SW
CLIMATE...