402
FXUS61 KAKQ 191858
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
258 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure lingers over the area through next week, allowing for
dry conditions to continue. Temperatures gradually warm up into
early next week before the next cold front pushes through by mid
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Cool again tonight with lows in the upper 30s and low 40s inland
and upper 40s and lower 50s at the coast.

- Patchy fog possible E of I-95 late tonight.

Expansive high pressure, both at the surface and aloft, extends from
coastal New England southwestward into the MS River Valley. Broad-
scale subsidence from the high is leading to light winds and mainly
clear/sunny skies. Dew points have mixed out into the 30s and 40s
inland, with low-mid 50s along the coast. Widely scattered cumulus
continues over far SE VA and NE NC (along the eastern edge of the
sfc high) where there is light NNE onshore flow. Temps have warmed
into the upper 60s or lower 70s, which is a few degrees higher than
guidance. Thus, highs today will likely overperform by the same
magnitude, with a few spots potentially reaching the mid 70s. Other
than some lingering CU along the coast, clear skies are expected
tonight. Some guidance highlights patchy fog potential E of I-95 and
away from the coast, including on the MD Eastern Shore, late
tonight/early Sunday. HREF probs for VSBY less than 0.5 miles are
quite high (50-70%), but very dry antecedent conditions makes this a
little more uncertain. Have introduced patchy fog into the forecast,
but not anything more widespread/dense. Chilly again tonight with
lows in the upper 30s-low 40s inland and mid-upper 40s along the
coast. This a degree or two warmer than last night and there are
little to no frost concerns.

The position of the sfc high changes little on Sunday, while upper-
level ridging over the eastern CONUS expands some. Afternoon highs
will thus be a couple degrees warmer and in the low-mid 70s. Similar
to today, forecast soundings show there could be additional
scattered cumulus in light onshore flow along the immediate coast of
SE VA and NE NC. Light and variable winds are expected inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

- A gradual warming trend continues into early next week.

- Dry with gradually warming temperatures.

Starting to sound like a broken record here with high pressure
remaining anchored over the E. This pattern continues to favor large
diurnal temperature ranges with cool nights and mild days.

Lows Sunday night/Monday morning again chilly and around 40 F
inland, with upper 40s or lower 50s at the coast. The warming trend
continues Monday and especially Tuesday as highs increase into the
upper 70s to around 80 F. Lows moderate into the mid 40s areawide
Monday night (50s at the coast). Clear and sunny skies prevail.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Warm weather is expected through the middle of next week.

- A dry cold front crosses the area early Thursday with cooler
weather returning by late week.

- The dry pattern persists.

High pressure retreats to the south and east on Tuesday night
into Wednesday as a potent upper-level trough and cold front
approaches from the NW. Lows Tuesday night in the mid 40s-low
50s. One more day of warm conditions expected Wednesday with
highs in the upper 70s and lows in the lower 50s. Dew points
will also inch up in the 50s inland and lower 60s closer to the
coast. The cold front pushes through late Wed night into early
Thu with temps falling behind it. As such, expect a cooling
trend for Thursday and Friday with highs in the upper 60s to
around 70F N and low to mid 70s S Thu, mid- upper 60s Fri, and
upper 60s to low 70s Sat. Lows become chilly again as high
pressure re-builds over the area. Note that probabilities of any
measurable precipitation are very low through the entire period
(including with the frontal passage) and PoPs are less than 5%.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 140 PM EDT Saturday...

VFR and calm conditions expected through the rest of this
afternoon and this evening. FEW-SCT CU (w/ CIGs 2000-3000 ft)
continues along coastal NC and SE VA as of 18z and may persist
intermittently through most of the period. Expecting ECG to
stay VFR for the time being, however. Elsewhere...SKC through
the period with generally light N or NNE winds. Recent guidance
suggests patchy fog tonight E of I-95, with some VSBY
restrictions perhaps sneaking into PHF and SBY between 06-13z.
Given dry antecedent conditions, will not go below MVFR in the
TAFs at this time. VFR expected to start the daylight hours
Sunday, with some MVFR CIGs in NE NC possible.

High pressure prevails into the middle of next week bringing
mainly VFR and dry conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 235 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the coastal waters
  and the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay through tonight/Sunday
  due to elevated seas/waves.

- A period of benign marine conditions is likely from Sunday
  night through the middle of next week.

- Another round of Small Craft Advisories appears likely on
  Thursday following the passage of a cold front.

Current surface analysis shows expansive ~1034mb high pressure
centered from the OH/TN Valleys to the Mid-Atlantic. N to NE winds
continue to decrease, with speeds now in the 10-15 kt range. SCAs
remain in effect for the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay and coastal
waters, as seas are still 5-7 ft with 3-4 ft waves likely at the
mouth of the bay. The high becomes centered over the waters on
Sunday (and remains near or over the area early next week), which
will result in a prolonged period of generally light and variable
winds from Sun-Tue. Winds are then expected to increase Wednesday
night and especially Thursday as a cold front crosses the waters. A
round of SCAs (due to N-NW winds and elevated seas) is highly likely
on Thursday following the FROPA. Seas will remain elevated today and
Sunday from onshore flow and will begin to diminish to sub-SCA
conditions Sunday night. Seas will average 2-4 ft from Mon-Wed
before building back to 4-6 ft behind the front on Thursday. Waves
on the bay will subside to 1-2 ft by Sunday and remain in that range
through Wednesday before building to 3-4 ft on Thu.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 235 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

- No additional tidal flooding is expected after this evening.

Despite diminishing N-NE flow...the King Tide combined with elevated
seas offshore is resulting in elevated tidal anomalies (on the order
of 0.75-1.25 ft above normal). Widespread nuisance flooding is
occurring with the ongoing high tide, and Statements remain in
effect for the mid/upper bay through the late aftn/evening.
Tonight`s high tide is the lower of the two astronomical tides, so
no flooding is expected. With diminishing winds/seas later this
weekend into early next week, anomalies should fall by a few tenths
of a foot. This, combined with lower astro tides, should end the
threat for additional tidal flooding.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ650-652.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Monday for ANZ656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RMM/SW
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...RMM/SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...AJB/ERI
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...