330
FXUS61 KAKQ 260048
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
748 PM EST Mon Nov 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front crosses the region early Tuesday with scattered
showers possible, followed by dry and cooler conditions
Wednesday. Widespread rain is expected by Thanksgiving as low
pressure moves over the region. Much colder weather arrives
behind that system for this weekend into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 745 PM EST Monday...

Key Messages...

- Milder tonight with increasing clouds.

- Scattered showers are possible before sunrise Tuesday, mainly
  along and W of I-95.

A weak ridge aloft remains in place this evening, in advance of
a large upper trough moving ENE from the mid-MS VAlley towards
the western Great Lakes. At the surface, low pressure is
centered across Lake Huron, and will move ENE overnight. Clouds
have already started to increase across western portions of the
FA, as the upper trough moves closer to the region. Temperatures
range from the mid/upper 40s to the lower 50s for most, and with
the increase in clouds and a southerly low level flow, expect
little additional drop overnight. Showers look to hold off until
~09Z/4 AM, before spreading into the piedmont and potentially
reaching the I-95 corridor or a little east prior to 12Z. While
we have enough mid level moisture, a lack of strong forcing
precludes PoPs any higher than ~40% through 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 415 PM EST Monday...

Key Messages...

- Scattered showers moving from west to east early Tuesday.

- Mild Tuesday with cooler weather and dry air advection
  arriving Tuesday night.

-Better chance of rain Thursday

Low pressure occludes as it moves NE into Canada on Tue. Meanwhile,
the trailing cold front moves from W to E across the FA early on
Tue. Ahead of the front, dew points rise into the mid 50s. This
combined with the weak forcing from the cold front should be
sufficient for a scattered to broken line of showers to develop
ahead of the cold front and move across the FA. Highest
chances look to be for NE portions of the CWA, decreasing as you
move further south. highest chance of rain continues to be across
the Eastern Shore. Any showers quickly taper off from W to E by
early Tue afternoon behind the front as much drier air moves
in. Clearing is also expected by Tue afternoon with enough
downsloping for temps to rise into the mid-upper 60s behind the
cold front.

The cool surge lags behind with temps falling below freezing inland
(due to clear skies and calm winds) and in the low 30s to lower
40s closer to the coast Tue night (due to light winds). Dry
weather returns for Wed with highs in the mid 50s N to lower 60s
S. Clouds increase Wed afternoon into Wed night ahead of a
developing area of low pressure. Additionally, some light rain
begins to move into W portions of the FA by late Wed night/early
Thu morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 340 PM EST Monday...

Key Messages...

- Confidence has increased in widespread rain arriving on
  Thanksgiving.

- Much colder temperatures move in next weekend.

Confidence has increased in an area of low pressure tracking across
the Appalachians Wed night into Thu before a secondary low develops
and becomes the dominant low along the New England coastline on Thu.
As such, rain chances have increased with the EPS and GEFS showing
probabilities for at least 0.1" around 100%. The mean QPF from
the GEFS was 0.5-0.6" with 0.25-0.45" on the EPS. These
differences are largely due to the EPS having the low tracking
farther to the N with more showers as opposed to stratiform rain
across the area. Nevertheless, confidence is still high in rain
arriving on Thu with the exact totals and timing still
uncertain. Therefore, have kept NBM PoPs which show rain chances
increasing to 75-85% early on Thu with PoPs decreasing from W
to E by Thu afternoon as the low moves farther away. Will note
that timing and track discrepancies will have an impact on how
long the rain lingers into the day on Thu (the GFS/GEFS being
the slowest and would linger rain into early Fri). For now,
have 30-40% PoPs NW to 50-60% PoPs SE by Thu evening. Any rain
moves offshore by Thu night into Fri morning with dry weather
expected on Fri into early next week.

Confidence in highs on Thu continues to be low until models can come
into a better agreement on the exact track of the low. For now, have
highs in the mid 50s NW to the upper 60s to around 70F SE. A very
cold airmass arrives behind this system for this weekend into early
next week...a fitting start to the month of December. Highs in the
40s are possible Sat and Sun and perhaps upper 30s across the NW on
Mon. More impactful will be the lows. Widespread lows in the 20s
(mid 20s for most) are possible Fri and Sat nights with lower 20s
possible inland on Sun night. Below freezing temps are possible all
the way to the coast. This cold airmass looks to persist into
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 715 PM EST Monday...

Key Messages...

-Low chance of sub-VFR CIGs along a frontal passage Tuesday
 morning

-More robust rainfall event with degraded flight conditions
 forecast for Thursday

VFR conditions this evening with increasing mid/high clouds and
a light southerly flow. A cold front moves through early
Tuesday, bringing a chance for showers, mainly from RIC to SBY
before 12Z, and to PHF/ORF/ECG around 12Z. Included a VCSH
mention in the TAFs along this frontal passage. Along the line
of showers we could also see some lower clouds. Have put in a
SCT030 mention in the TAFs for now due to the lower confidence,
but the most pessimistic guidance was showing ceilings as low as
1500 ft. The models and BUFKIT soundings continue to depict
LLWS ~40kt from the WSW ahead of the front from 09-12Z through
15-18Z. Highest confidence is at RIC/PHF/ORF and has therefore
been included in the TAFs. WNW Dry conditions and improved
flight conditions return from NW to SE late Tuesday morning
through Tue aftn as winds shift to the WNW and gust to 15-20kt.

Outlook: Dry/VFR Tue night through Wed. Low pressure will bring
periods of rain and degraded flight conditions by Thanksgiving
Day. Dry and VFR conditions return by Friday as high pressure
builds in from the NW.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 PM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions are expected today with high pressure over
  the area.

- New Small Craft Advisory in effect from midnight tonight to
  1PM Tuesday for the Chesapeake Bay for wind gusts near 20 kts.

- There will be a brief potential for marginal SCA conditions
  Tuesday morning and again Tuesday night for other waters

- A stronger frontal system expected to impact the region
  Thursday and Friday leading to the potential for a prolonged
  period of elevated winds/seas.

Sub-SCA/benign marine conditions continue through today with
high pressure remaining in control of the local weather pattern.
Winds remain southerly this afternoon into tonight.

Winds become S to SW and increase tonight ahead of a cold front.
Wind speeds average 10 to 15 knots gusting to 20 kts across the
Chesapeake Bay and 15 to 20 knots over the coastal waters
tonight. There will be a window of potential SCA winds tonight
through Tuesday morning with the frontal passage. While
marginal, have decided to err on the side of caution and put up
a Small Craft Advisory for the Chesapeake Bay to cover this
threat. Winds become W to NW behind the front, with another
potential for marginal SCA conditions Tuesday evening into the
first part of Tuesday night, mainly across the northern
Chesapeake Bay and northern coastal waters. Benign conditions
return Wednesday, before a stronger cold front approaches and
crosses the waters on Thursday. SCA conditions are likely
beginning midday Thursday and persisting into at least the first
part of Saturday as shots of cooler/drier air filter into the
region. There are also some low-end Gale probs Thursday night
into early Friday (mainly out 20 nm) which will we need to keep
an eye on as we get closer in time.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 1 PM EST Tuesday
     for ANZ630>632-634.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...MHX
LONG TERM...MHX
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...MHX