577
FXUS61 KAKQ 041848
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
248 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly dry conditions are expected through Saturday as high
pressure builds in from the north, with lower humidity expected.
Low pressure along the Southeast coast likely moves inland Sunday,
bringing showers and a few storms, primarily to the southern
half of the area. Typical summertime conditions are expected
next week, with mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms
and seasonable heat and humidity.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 245 PM EDT Friday...

- Dry and pleasant for the Fourth of July with lower humidity.

Much drier air has arrived with dew points falling into the
upper 50s and low 60s over much of the area. Have adjusted dew
point grids down considerably to better match surface
observations. Warm and less humid conditions persist through the
remainder of the afternoon and into the evening, resulting in a
splendid holiday forecast. Highs this afternoon range from the
mid/upper 80s to the low 90s. Satellite shows mostly clear skies
across the region with some smoke noted aloft from Canadian
wildfires. Continued dry and pleasant tonight with lows falling
into the low/mid 60s inland to right around 70 degrees at the
coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Dry and pleasant weather with lower humidity extends into Saturday.

- Moisture and precip chances increase Sunday as low pressure off
  the Southeast coast lifts northward.

Similar conditions expected Saturday but clouds are expected to
increase through the afternoon and into the evening as low pressure
lifts northward off the GA/SC coast and surface high pressure moves
offshore. High temperatures top out in the upper 80s to low 90s with
dew points mixing into the 60s during the afternoon. Most of the
area stays dry Saturday but latest guidance does show an increasing
chance for some showers along and near the Albemarle Sound by mid to
late afternoon, potentially lingering into the overnight hours.
Lows Saturday night generally in the mid 60s to 70s (warmest SE).

Deeper moisture returns Sunday as the aforementioned low off the
Carolina coast lifts N. 12z guidance has trended toward the low
moving onshore somewhere on the SC coast Sunday morning with
increased moisture and precip chances for the southern half of the
local area. Afternoon high temperatures will be held in the mid 80s
across the southern third of the area where thicker cloud cover is
expected. Upper 80s and low 90s are forecast for the remainder of
the area. The low is forecast to open into a surface trough and lift
northward Sunday night into early Monday. Therefore, showers and
storms are likely to linger along the coast overnight and early
Monday with lows back into the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 245 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Showers and storms continue on Monday with partly to mostly cloudy
  skies.

- Becoming hot and humid Tuesday through the end of the week
  with mainly afternoon/evening storm chances.

Deeper moisture associated with the coastal low/trough will linger
across the region on Monday, resulting in chance to likely PoPs
(highest SE). Clouds and showers should keep temps somewhat in check
with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s. Warmer temperatures
are expected mid to late week, along with chances of diurnal
showers/tstms well in advance of another cold front approaching the
region from the Great Lakes. This front looks to stall near the
region late next week. Daily high temperatures warm back into the
lower 90s with overnight lows in the upper 60s to lower-mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 135 PM EDT Friday...

VFR prevails through the 12z TAF period. Mostly clear skies for
the rest of the day, except some higher clouds over far srn VA
and NE NC, and some FEW-SCT CU near SBY. N winds inland with
E-NE winds near the coast due to the diurnal sea breeze. Speeds
are generally 5-10 kt. Light/calm winds tonight, increasing
again out of the E-NE early Saturday morning. There is also a
low probability for patchy ground fog. Mainly SKC again
Saturday.

Outlook: Prevailing VFR through at least Saturday as drier air
remains over the region. A few showers/tstms are possible by
Sunday, mainly south, and all areas Monday and Tuesday. MVFR
CIGs are also possible (especially S) by Sunday- Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 245 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Sub-SCA/benign conditions through most of the weekend.

- Low pressure passes southeast of the area early next week, with
  only minor impacts expected on the waters.

In the wake of a cold front this afternoon, winds have turned mainly
E of NE, though a few obs in the eastern Chesapeake Bay still are
reporting NW winds. Conditions are benign with winds speeds 5-10 kt.
Seas are hovering around 2 ft with waves 1 ft or less in the bay.
High pressure settles N of the area later today into Saturday with E-
SE winds of 5-10 kt expected tonight, increasing to 10-15 kt by
Saturday afternoon. Seas continue to average ~2 ft.

Uncertainty increases by the very end of the weekend as a
subtropical area of low pressure takes shape off the SC/GA coast
before potentially approaching the area late Sunday or Monday. This
system now has a high chance (70%) of developing into a subtropical
depression, per NHC. The updated forecast now only shows winds of 10-
15 kt, with only ~10% probs for Small Craft Advisory conditions
shown in local wind probabilities. Seas could also tick up to 3-4 ft
Monday, with bay waves 2-3 ft. In summary, the vast majority of wind
(and impacts) should stay well removed to our south. Winds are
forecast to become S and diminish Monday night/Tuesday as the low
slowly exits. Variable marine conditions return toward the middle of
next week with afternoon sea breezes and diurnal shower/storm
activity.

A LOW risk of rip currents continues today and Saturday. Depending
on the evolution of the low, a MODERATE risk is possible by
Sunday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RHR
NEAR TERM...RHR
SHORT TERM...RHR
LONG TERM...RHR
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...SW